Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[frenchybannedme] 11/7/2018 22:40

I will donate £10 to anyone who can make a large balloon of a fat Northerner in a nappy, and float it above London.

Anyone with me?

[oilman63] 11/7/2018 22:34

Gibbs it's all in your head and it doesn't exist.

Now seeing as oil investor has posted his massive I wonder if he would be so kind as to make a prediction of what the company will RNS on Friday morning ???

I have.

[therealminotaur] 11/7/2018 15:44

Load Newer
Today 15:41 Price: 267.50
Lemming99 759 posts
RE: Eddie...
Hey Straycat,
Welcome to the world of GKP. Seatbelts on please. Not that we should use the past for shares, but if you start at 107.9 and times by 1.16 (6 times) to simulate the average compound monthly rise (16%) in the share price this year you'll see the current trend.

I've noticed that some months it's less than that, and other months it's more, but that's the average year to date.

I've posted a few tables and graphs here:



Why the increase in share price?
GKP get $22 less than the OP in payment for their share of production.
To calculate it, if OP is $78 and volume is 30,000 barrels a day it's as follows:

78-22= $56

30,000 x 0.58 (working interest) x 0.75 (share) x 56 = $730,800 daily

$730,800 x 30.416 days in the month (on average) = $22,228,500 payment

Last year GKP were paid $12m a month and increased bank balance by $4m to $6m a month (from memory).
As such there's $10m more each month to play with at current OP.
Strong Buy
Reply to post

[therealminotaur] 11/7/2018 15:43

So as is clear they have far too much cash
When Sami indicated he would optimise capital structure
What could be do?
Special Divi?
Agreed share buyback with restructure architect s?
Pref share swap for some common equity?

Very important

[gkphero] 11/7/2018 14:42

Current share price = £2.69p

[oil_investor] 11/7/2018 14:23

FUNDING THE PRODUCTION INCREASE TO 55.000 BOPD

Let’s take a look at what GKP are currently saying.

The 2018 and 2019 programme to achieve 55,000 bopd is costed at $175 million to $215 million. The mid-figure is $195 million. But this included three Jurassic wells and associated Electric Submersible Pumps which are not actually required to achieve 55,000 bopd - they are brought-forward from the subsequent 75,000 bopd programme because it is considered convenient to do so.

The $195 million figure includes a 25% contingency. Remove that, and the baseline cost is $156 million. But that is not the GKP net figure - instead, it is the gross figure which is paid by GKP, MOL and the MNR. The percentage which GKP would pay for their fully-diluted 58% interest, according to the Bilateral Agreenent, is 64%. On that basis, the GKP contribution would be $100 million. GKP have recently fogged the percentages, but the CPR uses those numbers.

Using $100 million as Gulf’s contribution, the cost per month, spread over 18 months, would be just $5.56 million per month. GKP have suggested that the work might be done in just 12 months - on that basis the contribution per month would be $8.33 million.

It is apparent that GKP should be able to fund this work from income. The company has currently supplied crude oil for the months of April, May and June 2018 without yet being paid. On that basis, a good 50% of their contribution toward the work is covered by monies due for those three past months.

Assuming a fairly steady increase in production, from the current level to 40,000 bopd and then to 55,000 bopd, the mean production over the period might be somewhere around 44,000 bopd. That would boost GKP’s income, particularly if oil prices remain in the $70+ range. And there will also be the benefits of the direct connection to the pipeline. The fog concerns the Second Amendment and the Bilateral Agreement - if the MNR pay the back-costs for their Participation Option, Gulf receive a chunk of cash but the monthly income reduces somewhat (though the higher oil price and increased production work in the opposite direction). Maybe it’s a swings and roundabouts situation?

The Opex element of the costs would be much more quickly recovered than the Capex element. ERC Equipoise have said in the CPR that ESPs and well workovers come under Opex. If that remains the case, part of the costs should start coming back at a fairly early stage.

All in all, achieving 55,000 bopd appears a very easy target for GKP.

All to play for imo

[ccr1958] 11/7/2018 14:19

Mrs ccr has been filling her 👢👢👢👢8098;👢 in her ISA .... well you would wouldn’t you , not many left now !

[gkphero] 11/7/2018 14:14

Massive buying here as everyone is desperate for GKP shares.

[gkphero] 11/7/2018 12:11

SP on it's way to the first station which is £10 per share.

[therealminotaur] 11/7/2018 11:23

Today 11:18 Price: 263.50
Swingoutsister 84 posts
RE: Buy
Soon their will be a massive short squeeze

Over 95% in big institute hands
Of the 5% left in retail /hnwi maybe over half are in to the end holders like the institution s

So only 2% or so of the entire issued stock being traded about

If you naked short on spreads

You could get massacred

Having said that if you are short naked or not you must be nuts
Strong Buy
Reply to post

[nicbw01] 11/7/2018 10:31

£3 here we come

[gkphero] 11/7/2018 09:36

Very happy to hold here for £60 per share.

[therealminotaur] 11/7/2018 09:19

There certainly is a spike in price coming

It's what this lot are waiting for

Holding and never selling


Just waiting for the inevitable trade sale💰㈒1;💵

There is a window of opportunity to join them

It's closing

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[hearts5] 11/7/2018 09:09

I thought that the ii holdings were so large here due to JF giving 85% of your share value to bond holders? Only a total idiot would think this is good.When you hear stories about Nigerian lotteries you wonder how people can be so gullible.....but then you look on here.450p to 1p then 1p to 2.5p and its all happy clapping and great again.