Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[bullinachinashop3] 12/7/2018 11:49

well done guys - good to see a winner

[officerdigby] 12/7/2018 11:36

OK about this second ammendment.

How much does GKP potentially have outstanding from MNR, compared to what GENL HAD outstanding before their second ammendement?
I wonder, because obviously GENL cancelled their outstanding MNR owings with the 2nd ammendment signing. But if GKP has more then maybe, maybe it will all not be cancelled, or it woudl require more netbacks then the extra GENL got.

Just open question as there are types on here who will have all that on file. MAight do the sums myself later..

[therealminotaur] 12/7/2018 11:14

BlackRock MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. IMI Index Non-Lendable F

Added 184,000 reported June.

[gkphero] 12/7/2018 11:11

Edit £2.71p

[gkphero] 12/7/2018 11:11

Current share price = £2.70p

[therealminotaur] 12/7/2018 11:09

Broad fraud

I see you running round the blogs with the con crew

Bash bash

[broadford bay] 12/7/2018 11:06

HA!

"Tell the Big Lads!"

Many of the Nominee Accounts you show are just hiding places for folks who don't want their true ownership and intentions made known.

Not all of them are coagulating holders like Hargreaves Lansdown, Interactive Investor or HSBC Client Holding.

How typical of you to praise such shady letterboxes.

I see Gokana is not on the list - disappeared, or just gone behind a new letter box nameplate?

You're in for a surprise.

[2wakeywakey] 12/7/2018 11:06

@mwestern yes you are quite right.

Just because a risk has not materialized in the past does not mean it cannot materialize in the future. Conversely this does not mean known risks will materialize in the future either.

It does not have to be an "all or nothing view" as TRM seems to be promoting. We acknowledge that certain risks exist and then adjust our investment appetite accordingly just as the "big lads" have done.

Whilst BlackRock MSCI have amassed a sizable holding in GKP as TRM points out, this is a tiny percentage of the fund's overall investment capital - they are hardly "all in" GKP by any measure, since they are mindful of the risks that might materialize.

[mwestern] 12/7/2018 10:47

TRM, no worries, I guess my point was lost on you. I'm sure the big lads have factored the relevant risks into their investment strategies hence no need for me to tell them anything...as if they would listen to anything a PI would have to say )) Laughable.

[therealminotaur] 12/7/2018 10:43

Like I say

Tell the big lads

That own 215,000,000 shares

Fill yer boots The clowns in full swing

MORGAN STANLEY CLIENT NOMINEES PLUS MORSTAN 35,889,965 15.64%
GOLDMAN SACHS 29,577,909 12.89%
BANK OF NEW York various nominees 20,876,843 9.10%
CHASE NOMINEES - J P MORGAN 20,547,527 8.96%
VIDACOS NOMINEES LTD 18,831,346 8.21%
AURORA NOMINEES LTD 15,183,887 6.62%
EURO CLEAR NOMINEES LTD 14,068,039 6.13%
STATE STREET NOMINEES LTD 11,824,222 5.15%
J P MORGAN SECURITIES LLC/PLC 7,379,293 3.22%
NUTRACO NOMINEES LTD 5,709,404 2.49%
INTERACTIVE INVESTOR SERVICES NOMINEES LTD 5,514,583 2.40%
BNY VARIOUS NOMINEES BANK OF NEW YORK 5,311,352 2.32%
HARGREAVES LANSDOWN NOMINEES LTD 5,164,078 2.25%
BARCLAYS DIRECT INVESTING 3,279,623 1.43%
HSDL NOMINEES LTD 2,589,670 1.13%
NORTRUST NOMINEES LTD 2,347,939 1.02%
LYNCHWOOD NOMINEES LTD 2,099,963 0.92%
SECURITIES SERVICES SECURE NOMINEES LTD 1,916,705 0.84%
PERSHING VARIOUS NOMINEES 1,902,000 0.83%
DEUTSCHE BANK 1,419,993 0.62%
WEALTH NOMINEES LTD 1,393,462 0.61%
HSBC GLOBAL CUSTODY NOMINEE UK LTD 1,241,075 0.54%
ROY NOMINEES LTD 1,089,000 0.47%
ING BANK 1,084,816 0.47%
HSBC CLIENT HOLDINGS UK LTD 977,087 0.43%
LAW SHARE NOMINEES LTD 974,921 0.42%
ROCK NOMINEES LTD 864,000 0.38%
INTERACTIVE BROKERS LLC 736,968 0.32%
KAS NOMINEES LTD 731,018 0.32%
SHARE NOMINEES LTD 691,130 0.30%
MERRIL LYNCH INTERNTIONAL 676,293 0.29%
REDMAYNE NOMINEES 670,000 0.29%
HANOVER NOMINEES LTD 641,125 0.28%
ALLIANCE TRUST SAVINGS NOMINEES LIMITED 385,969 0.17%
HARGREAVE HALE NOMINEES LTD 297,815 0.13%
BBHISL NOMINEES LTD 296,155 0.13%
JIM NOMINEES LTD 283,400 0.12%
PUMA NOMINEES LTD 270,575 0.12%
JAMES CAPEL NOMINEES LTD 264,168 0.12%
HAREWOOD NOMINEES LTD 240,594 0.10%
DB LONDON INVESTOR SERVICES NOMINEE LTD 200,000 0.09%
UBS PRIVATE BANKING NOMINEES 179,726 0.08%
IDEALING NOMINEES LTD 178,950 0.08%
ABN AMRO NOMINEES LIMITED 162,790 0.07%
CREDIT SUISSE 144,046 0.06%
APOLLO NOMINEES LTD 121,208 0.05%

[mwestern] 12/7/2018 10:36

TRM come on don't be disingenuous. A risk is still a risk even if it has not actually materialised. Iraq and Kurdistan is an area of high security risk.

[therealminotaur] 12/7/2018 10:32

What security risk ? Not missed a days production in years

Ring Morgan Stanley pronto they must not have spotted the oil is in Kurdistan 😂😂😂😂8514;

Tell them to sell their 35,000,000 shares

Then ring j p Morgan , Goldman Sachs etc 😂😂😂😂8514;

[mwestern] 12/7/2018 10:27

TRM, quite right. On fundamentals the company looks like a sure thing. Only the political and security risk of the region really detracts from that....

[gkphero] 12/7/2018 10:25

I'm not selling a single share therealm.

GKP is a ridiculous cash cow now.

[therealminotaur] 12/7/2018 10:14

It's funny really

The company has NEVER been more attractive on fundamentals earnings ir REALITY

And instis own 95% plus

When the company had no clean title, no earnings , massive debt and thousands of punters bought a DREAM

Now when it's an utter no brainer retail selling are being stiffed again ...

[2wakeywakey] 12/7/2018 09:51

@dafydd123 - some very good points you make there.

However, I think your post would have been better served without the summary of your GKP trading history. You may indeed have "sold on the way down" and "got out with a small profit" as you describe or you may actually be one of the people who "lost their money but are trying with all their might to maintain their reputation". Readers have no way of verifying what you have written so really it is irrelevant.

Whilst there is an element of fun watching the various characters on the bb squabble and bicker with each other, I personally don't pay much attention to any view written here on either side of the argument other than my own view.

The share price performance in respect of my holding is all that matters to me and for now it is moving in the right direction :)

[gkphero] 12/7/2018 09:35

SP rocketing.

GKP is heavily in demand, but the free float is drying up faster than an Arabs sandal.

[rodinswan2] 12/7/2018 09:35

I agree lifeson and sarah. daffyd was an old member who was fairly bullish, I seem to remember. When you've sold up, you see things differently, ergo our beloved mangey one. But those kinds of assessments are not necessarily correct and most certainly are biased. GLA

[lifeson] 12/7/2018 09:25

Yes Miss gibbz, I ticked daffyd's post for the first paragraph only, the rest was historical and I'm living in the present with an eye to the future.

I for one am selling nowt and never have.

GL all fellow genuine GKPers.

[therealminotaur] 12/7/2018 07:14

GOOD MORNING😎8526;😎ԅ26;😎😎;😎

FUNDING THE PRODUCTION INCREASE TO 55.000 BOPD

Let’s take a look at what GKP are currently saying.

The 2018 and 2019 programme to achieve 55,000 bopd is costed at $175 million to $215 million. The mid-figure is $195 million. But this included three Jurassic wells and associated Electric Submersible Pumps which are not actually required to achieve 55,000 bopd - they are brought-forward from the subsequent 75,000 bopd programme because it is considered convenient to do so.

The $195 million figure includes a 25% contingency. Remove that, and the baseline cost is $156 million. But that is not the GKP net figure - instead, it is the gross figure which is paid by GKP, MOL and the MNR. The percentage which GKP would pay for their fully-diluted 58% interest, according to the Bilateral Agreenent, is 64%. On that basis, the GKP contribution would be $100 million. GKP have recently fogged the percentages, but the CPR uses those numbers.

Using $100 million as Gulf’s contribution, the cost per month, spread over 18 months, would be just $5.56 million per month. GKP have suggested that the work might be done in just 12 months - on that basis the contribution per month would be $8.33 million.

It is apparent that GKP should be able to fund this work from income. The company has currently supplied crude oil for the months of April, May and June 2018 without yet being paid. On that basis, a good 50% of their contribution toward the work is covered by monies due for those three past months.

Assuming a fairly steady increase in production, from the current level to 40,000 bopd and then to 55,000 bopd, the mean production over the period might be somewhere around 44,000 bopd. That would boost GKP’s income, particularly if oil prices remain in the $70+ range. And there will also be the benefits of the direct connection to the pipeline. The fog concerns the Second Amendment and the Bilateral Agreement - if the MNR pay the back-costs for their Participation Option, Gulf receive a chunk of cash but the monthly income reduces somewhat (though the higher oil price and increased production work in the opposite direction). Maybe it’s a swings and roundabouts situation?

The Opex element of the costs would be much more quickly recovered than the Capex element. ERC Equipoise have said in the CPR that ESPs and well workovers come under Opex. If that remains the case, part of the costs should start coming back at a fairly early stage.

All in all, achieving 55,000 bopd appears a very easy target for GKP.

All to play for imo


Indeed - the most attractive still Independant e and p on the planet.

Not for long

[therealminotaur] 12/7/2018 07:13

" still want private investors to fund their lifestyle" private investors are funding f all
The company funds the directors and employees via the massive cash generation

Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley jo Morgan clients think the risk reward excellent
They own 95%
The company is worth several billion dollars - double figures on trade sale. Fill yer boots - and hold.