Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[ptmorris1] 29/5/2023 23:23

But but but StevenLegSpreader has told us to get our orders in for 8am tomorrow morning.

[habshan] 29/5/2023 21:07

"just a realist who’s trying to help you understand the situation on the ground."

Now then sniff.

It's severe for Iraq who still don't have a budget so badly need the issues resolved.

It's severe for Turkey who still don't have any dollars or any other foreign currency so badly need the pipeline open.

The Turkish elections are over so negotiations to reopen the pipeline can begin.

What Citadel with their tiny short of 0.6% are doing is irrelevant.

Aberdeen have increased their holding by 56.41%

Acadian have increased theirs 20.56%

Since April.

So there you go sniff, some facts that I hope helps you understand the situation on the ground.

[sniff_the_tip] 29/5/2023 20:39

“The situation is very severe."

Indeed it is. And that’s from the horses mouth too (APIKUR - The Association of the Petroleum Industry in Kurdistan comprises DNO, Genel Energy, Gulf Keystone Petroleum, HKN Energy and Shamaran Petroleum). No wonder Paul and JB have been missing all weekend.

No payments.
No pipeline opening.
No budget.
Citadel increasing their short.

It’s hard to see a way forward at the moment. And no Habsham, I’m not a paid troll, just a realist who’s trying to help you understand the situation on the ground.

[theythinkitsallover] 29/5/2023 19:53

hxxps://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/042723-feature-battle-over-krg-oil-has-iocs-fretting-their-future-in-iraqi-kurdistan

Resolving those thorny matters would lift the regulatory cloud that hangs over the Kurdish oil sector, APIKUR says.

"In good faith, the IOCs can commit to a capital deployment program if these issues are addressed -- fix the pipeline issue and the repayments," the second APIKUR official said.

"The delay in payments puts pressure on us as IOCs to reestablish the confidence of the market in investing in Kurdistan. The more delays, the more reduction in the level of production, which then creates the shortfall in revenues. The situation is very severe."

[theythinkitsallover] 29/5/2023 19:13

“The President of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zidan, and the Minister of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan Region, Kamal Muhammad, discussed on Monday, the treatment of legal problems related to the oil companies operating in Kurdistan.”

Well… I wonder what legal problems. The legality of contracts.. the legality of exports… the legality of payments? Legal action from the oil companies against the KRG ?! Who bloody knows anymore…

[nufc9] 29/5/2023 18:35

Baghdad-INA
The President of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zidan, and the Minister of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan Region, Kamal Muhammad, discussed on Monday, the treatment of legal problems related to the oil companies operating in Kurdistan.

A statement by the Supreme Judicial Council, received by the Iraqi News Agency (INA), stated, "The President of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zidan, received today the Minister of Natural Resources in the Kurdistan Region, Kamal Muhammad, and his accompanying delegation."

The statement added, "During the meeting, they discussed addressing legal problems related to oil companies operating in the Kurdistan region."

The President of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zaidan, Chairman of the Parliamentary Integrity Committee in Parliament, Ziad Al-Janabi, and members of the committee, MP Alia Nassif, MP Abdul-Amir Al-Mayah, MP Sarwa Abdul-Wahed, and MP Abdul-Rahim Al-Shammari.

Cooperation between the judiciary and the supervisory authorities concerned with the issue of integrity in the field of combating administrative and financial corruption was discussed.

[highlander7] 29/5/2023 18:35

Which is exactly why the Iranian influence in the ICG is trying to block the current successful negotiations. Iran does NOT want a prosperous Kurdistan with its USA Military bases.

Which is why I say the USA will make this happen.

IMO

[nufc9] 29/5/2023 16:47

“Despite its flaws, Kurdistan Region represents a relatively secure and prosperous haven, rich in natural resources. It stands at the cusp of expansive growth and holds internationally recognized autonomy, setting it apart from other regions historically associated with Kurdistan. With its independent military, judicial system, and educational institutions, Kurdistan possesses the necessary foundation for progress”

[theythinkitsallover] 29/5/2023 16:42

Thanks Habsham, appreciate the discussion

[habshan] 29/5/2023 16:36

Theythinkitsallover - "The Supreme Court also says the all oil contracts signed by the KRG are illegal, including GKP’s. Does the Iraqi prime minister have authority to just ignore this significant ruling ?"

You should only fight the battles you can win.

And with the English High Court and the International Court of Arbitration ruling that as the KRG are an organ of the Iraqi State the PSCs cannot be challenged in a Court of Law as they have Sovereign Immunity, he knows that's a battle he can't win.

So he's chosen to ignore it.

[theythinkitsallover] 29/5/2023 16:16

“Baghdad doesn't think so, as far as the ICG are concerned the Federal Supreme Court is legit.

It was put together by the Iraqi Government.

And the Supreme Court says that the Finance Committee can't just rewrite a budget agreed between two governments because they don't like it.”

The Supreme Court also says the all oil contracts signed by the KRG are illegal, including GKP’s. Does the Iraqi prime minister have authority to just ignore this significant ruling ?

And with the pipeline still closed, Baghdad and Turkey have de-facto ‘cancelledR17; oil companies contracts. Without actually having to do it. Turkey and Baghdad working together on this?

Federal Court happy with this outcome, Baghdad gets away with it as it looks like it isn’t their fault - “ball is in turkeys court”. If the pipeline doesn’t re-open soon now the elections have taken place - then there is defo something fishy going on

[habshan] 29/5/2023 16:10

Theythinkitsallover - "But isn’t the federal Supreme Court itself illegal?"

Baghdad doesn't think so, as far as the ICG are concerned the Federal Supreme Court is legit.

The Federal Supreme Court was put together by the Iraqi Government.

And the Supreme Court says that the Finance Committee can't just rewrite a budget agreed between two governments because they don't like it.

If they could then why not just bypass the governments and let them write it in the first place.

[theythinkitsallover] 29/5/2023 15:57

“Well apparently according to the Federal Supreme Court ruling no. 35 there IS something he can do about it.”

But isn’t the federal Supreme Court itself illegal? The Kurds like to quote the federal Supreme Court when it’s in their favour, however when the supreme court decides all KRG contracts signed with the oil companies are illegal, they choose not to listen.

[habshan] 29/5/2023 15:44

Theythinkitsallover - "Well apparently, according to the finance committee, there’s not much he can do about it."

Well apparently according to the Federal Supreme Court ruling no. 35 there IS something he can do about it.

Highlander - "They cant change a signed agreement even if they wanted to and had the authority to do so. Which they dont."

The Iraqi Supreme Court agrees with you Highlander.

"The Kurdistan Region’s finance minister on Sunday said that the finance committee in the Iraqi parliament does not have the right to add or remove articles from bills.

“The Federal Supreme Court decision No. 35 prevents the parliament from changing the texts in the budget bills sent by the government,” KRG Finance Minister Awat Sheikh Janab said.

According to Janab, the federal court decision specifies that the finance committee maintains the right to change the numbers in the bill or transfer them between articles and paragraphs, but the committee cannot add or remove any paragraph from the bill.

Not only has the core of the bill been changed, but they are trying to change the constitution as well.”

Sounds to me like the Iranian soldiers in the Finance Committee haven't done their research and are just making it up as they go along and trying to create new rules to suit themselves.

A lot like Bigdog, maybe he's one of them.

[theythinkitsallover] 29/5/2023 15:36

“on the say so of a small number of Iranian soldiers on the Finance Committee”

As well as some PUK members.

“Al-Sudani does not want these amendments, he wants the budget passed”

Well apparently, according to the finance committee, there’s not much he can do about it.

[highlander7] 29/5/2023 14:59

Not sure I understand whats going on here. The agreement was signed a few weeks ago by both sides. Which is why the ICG gave the Turks the go ahead to re open the pipeline.

They cant change a signed agreement even if they wanted to and had the authority to do so. Which they dont.

Sounds like a storm in a teacup to me.

IMO

[habshan] 29/5/2023 14:12

"will the KRG accept the changes to article 10 to ensure no changes to article 13 and 14."

The small north east corner of Nineveh governorate that we are concerned with here is in modern day Kurdistan.

I think it very unlikely that the Kurds will hand sovereignty over a chunk of Kurdistan to the ICG on the say so of a small number of Iranian soldiers on the Finance Committee whose only motive is to cause trouble and derail the improvement in relations between the two sides.

The terms of the budget had already been agreed between the Iraqi government and the KRG two months ago and was ready to be voted on.

Al-Sudani does not want these amendments, he wants the budget passed.

The issue of disputed territories comes under Article 140 of the constitution and past governments have avoided addressing it because it's far too much of a hot potato. If everything depended on it's resolution NOTHING would get done.

"Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution details steps to resolve a dispute between the federal and regional government who both claim jurisdiction over disputed areas of the country such as Kirkuk province. Successive federal governments have failed to implement the article."

[beernut1] 29/5/2023 13:20

Selling Eastward: Chinese, Indian Corporations Lead in Iraqi Oil Acquisitions
Economy
Oil

2023-05-29 12:53


Font
Shafaq News/ April saw Chinese corporations emerge as the frontrunners in the procurement of Iraqi crude oil, a monthly report by the state oil marketer, SOMO, revealed on Monday.
Eight Chinese firms, out of a total of thirty-six international entities engaged in oil transactions with Iraq during the prior month, highlight China's assertive trajectory in the acquisition of Middle Eastern oil reserves.
The dynamic Indian market trailed China in this particular race with seven active corporations in oil transactions for Iraq's oil. Drawing a tie for the third place were American and South Korean companies, fielding four each. Italian companies made a mark with three, while the Turks and Spaniards proffered two participating firms.
The array of remaining purchasers bore an international complexion, featuring lone representatives from Dutch-British, French, Azerbaijani, Malaysian, Emirati, and Greek consortiums.
SOMO, as by the report, reiterated its commitment to enforcing stringent standards for contracting and leveraging agreements with global oil conglomerates, medium-scale independent entities, and comprehensively integrated governmental operations.
Prominent global corporations surfacing in the list of Iraqi oil acquirers included renowned names like India's Hindustan, Korea's Kukje, China's PetroChina, the US Exxon Mobil, the Dutch-British Shell, and Italy's Eni.

[theythinkitsallover] 29/5/2023 12:59

hxxps://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Flare-Up-Between-Kurdistan-And-Iraq-May-Delay-Oil-Export-Restart.html

Flare-Up Between Kurdistan And Iraq May Delay Oil Export Restart

[guypender] 29/5/2023 12:52

Life is short bigdog. Make sure you spend as much time as possible arguing with people you don't know on a bulletin board.

[guypender] 29/5/2023 12:51

Lots of tanker/tug activity going on near the port. Fingers crossed