Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[sbb1x] 20/10/2022 12:49

Another low volume day

[punter26] 20/10/2022 12:44

BARZANI GOES TO BAGHDAD: TROUBLE IN THE KURDISH OIL AND GAS SECTOR
DOUGLAS A. OLLIVANT JULY 18, 2022




..."However, legalities do not prevent either side from entering a political deal that rewrites the Iraqi oil and gas law. Now obviously, the legalities contour the art of the possible in a political deal. Let’s be clear — in the Baghdad vs. Irbil contest over the legality of Kurdish oil contracts and exports, Baghdad has won. But that does not mean an end to the political negotiation. Keeping the Kurdistan Regional Government relatively satisfied — and, for that matter, keeping the 400-500 thousand barrels per day of Kurdish oil on world markets — is in Baghdad’s interest. A political deal can yet be reached.

The Kurds could send — and doubtless, have sent, though without fanfare — a lower level, more technocratic team to Baghdad to negotiate. But this approach is unlikely to produce any result, let alone the sort of result that offers real possibilities to the Kurdistan region. A technocratic team is simply not empowered to make binding decisions, and Baghdad knows that.

The Kurds have one great but as yet untapped asset — the person of Masoud Barzani, the former president and de facto patriarch. Only Masoud can go to Baghdad and hope to truly achieve a favorable result, as whatever Masoud legitimates will be unconditionally accepted by the Kurdistan region of Iraq’s citizenry.

It is difficult to overstate the gravitas and political capital that the eldest Barzani holds throughout all of Iraq. While Arab Iraqi leaders have had numerous confrontations with him over the years, he is still held in the highest respect. This point was made very powerfully to me once, when an Arab Iraqi friend of mine went to Irbil to see Masoud Barzani. When I saw pictures of the meeting, I asked my friend why he had paid such a public visit, during a politically sensitive period in which their sides were not aligned. My friend replied, “The man is a historical and important friend to me, and I am more confident in his patriotism than his Kurdishness.”

This deep regard that Arab Iraq holds for Masoud Barzani is singular, at least since the death of his political counterpart, Jelal Talabani. No other living Iraqi Kurd has this kind of gravitas, or commands this much respect from his Arab counterparts.

The legal decision against the Kurdistan Regional Government has put the Kurdistan Region of Iraq in a position of existential danger. But Masoud — and only Masoud — has an opportunity to go to Baghdad and cut a political deal. No other figure will be so welcome in Baghdad, and no other figure has the standing to make the decisions required to reach a compromise. And frankly, only Masoud himself could get a deal that would be acceptable to Masoud. Sending a lesser emissary is a guarantee of failure.

In short, there is an opportunity here, once Baghdad forms a government, to cut a grand bargain. This grand bargain will inevitably involve compromise. While such a bargain may give the three Kurdish provinces an unequal share of revenues that the Arab provinces may find unfair, it will almost certainly involve a degree of entanglement with the Federal Oil Ministry that will make Irbil uncomfortable. It will also force a degree of transparency on the Kurdistan Regional Government’s oil policies that some interests may find awkward."

( Douglas Ollivant )


The author Douglas Ollivant, stresses the importance and regional influence of Masoud Barzani within Iraq. This piece was publish earlier in July, and since then there is no doubt that Malaki has consolidated his grip upon the state, but the article is no less relevant today.

[johnbuysghost] 20/10/2022 11:19

Maliki is just a degenerate thief.

[nestoframpers] 20/10/2022 11:10

Re Maliki words are cheap, had he sorted HCL he'd not be so filthy rich imo. Estimated personal worth $72 Bn. Owns ( or did own ?) the most expensive house in Paris.

[highlander7] 20/10/2022 10:43

Labour will be back shortly. Get your shares in an ISA !! Otherwise they are going to tax the hell of of your dividends.

[arcadian] 20/10/2022 10:34

Brighter

Bank of America raises BP price target to 550 (500) pence - 'neutral'

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Citigroup raises BP price target to 440 (400) pence - 'neutral'

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Bank of America raises Shell price target to 3,200 (3,000) pence - 'buy'

[1waving] 20/10/2022 10:33

NoR

This Twitter clip from a Tory MP sums it up --- talentless self serving MPs ticking the right boxes to become a Minister.
Shapps is a classic example






The Reform Party and Nigel are going to be busy.

[johnbuysghost] 20/10/2022 10:26

The USA needs the oil and a major to get it out of the ground in big numbers.
GKP is just a minnow sitting on top of an elephant field for 13 years and counting.

Crazy.

[nestoframpers] 20/10/2022 10:18

F-ing camel trading H7 ;o) and we think our politicians are bad . Farage saying there has been a Remainer take over of the Tory party , will we have Boris again with Carrie's green agenda on the top of the list ? Who thought hippies could do so much damage.

[highlander7] 20/10/2022 10:07

Iraq has been provisionally promised ~$68 billion in foreign aid from Trump / Biden.
it will come with conditions. Its also worth remembering that Maliki was only originally put in place with USA support.

Sounds like horsetrading to me.

[nestoframpers] 20/10/2022 09:59

Don't know JB 1wav said it was going have a a correction phase of drifting , I think it will take HCL to get us going on a new trend up targeting 320p .

[fairenough11] 20/10/2022 09:52

"yanks calling the shots"

Chevron + ???-----?

[johnbuysghost] 20/10/2022 09:42

That's us on our way to £100 per share imo.

[highlander7] 20/10/2022 09:42

The yanks are calling the shots now ..NOT Maliki.

[sbb1x] 20/10/2022 09:07

Brent nearly tagging 94 hohoho

[sbb1x] 20/10/2022 07:58

Brent 93.44 hohoho sleepy Joe

[releasethekraken] 19/10/2022 21:12

BANG GONE - this Friday

[sbb1x] 19/10/2022 18:55

Oil spiking 92.71 highest of the day. Hopefully back over 100 for mid terms.I hate sleepy Joe and war mongering Dems.

[habshan] 19/10/2022 17:19

Punter - "(Lets hope that the "prominent political actors on either side" are working on this !)"

I wouldn't hold your breath Punter.

So much for mending relations with the Kurds and tackling corruption, the oil portfolio goes to al-Maliki.

"Shafaq News/ A leader in the Shiite Coordination Framework revealed new details about distributing the portfolios in Muhammad Shia'a Al-Sudani's Government.

The leader, on condition of anonymity, said that the CF parties agreed on the shares as follows: three ministries for the State of Law coalition headed by Nuri Al-Miliki, which are oil, higher education, and agriculture"



But the main thing is that this guy goes:-

"Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar Ismail is Iraq’s Oil Minister. A dubious figure, he has acted as a vehicle for Iranian influence in Iraq, and he is hostile to the Kurds. He has played a major role in Baghdad’s efforts to restrict energy production in the Kurdistan Region."

[sbb1x] 19/10/2022 16:58

The US will have approximately 17.5 days worth of petroleum left in the SPR and that's before any further depletion