Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[releasethekraken] 05/8/2022 18:36

VALUATION ON SALE.At per current CPR GKP have of the order of 200m 2 P net entitlement reservesWood Mackenzie placed a fully risked valuation of $8/boe pre Putin.......So that's $ 1.6bn - back then - without a new FDP/CPR or any of the field future prospectivity.Plus all the GAS ...........to Europe........So IMO major holders in current status would accept no less than twice the prior very fully discounted - and several IOC would have been interested = competitive tension.Looking at absolute minimum of $3bn which is over 11 quid a share, and in my view that is super super cautious.

[habshan] 05/8/2022 18:15

17:52;24 166,959 unknown 217.50p.

[releasethekraken] 05/8/2022 17:40

Takeover imminent

[releasethekraken] 05/8/2022 17:39

Courtesy of Crabbo on LSE:-Canaccord Genuity increases TP to 370p.The company is now debt free. This anticipated update comes on the back of recent receipt of net $38m payment for April crude sales and payments of a $25m ordinary dividend on 15 July and a $50m special dividend on 29 July.

[bigdog5] 05/8/2022 17:38

I believe we can see why there's been no interest in the company since DNO walked away in 2016. Eight years to up production from the 42k achieved in Dec 2014 (the company said) to 45k a day currently.

Kozel and mates troughed on his prediction of achieving 150k by 2014 and your guru reckoned 110k a day by 2018, lol.

Then there's this from your guru:-

"My understanding is that the KRG are looking for 100,000 bopd to 150,000 bopd from Shaikan by end-2017. .
Not 55,000 bopd."


Meanwhile they've got 45k a day currently, lol.

Do you think the hosts are impressed, lol.

[nufc9] 05/8/2022 16:28

"Canaccord Genuity increases TP to 370."

Buy didn't expert bigdog value the field at £1.75 per share?! Haven't they read his posts!?

[habshan] 05/8/2022 16:18

Courtesy of Crabbo on LSE:-

Canaccord Genuity increases TP to 370p.

The company is now debt free. This anticipated update comes on the back of recent receipt of net $38m payment for April crude sales and payments of a $25m ordinary dividend on 15 July and a $50m special dividend on 29 July.

[habshan] 05/8/2022 16:07

A very interesting report and video that will give the ICG a lot to think about, if they choose to pursue this it'll cost them plenty.

From the video - "There was a dispute in April last year before the English courts between an investor and the KRG and the court held that in signing the PSCs the KRG was effectively acting under the sovereign power of the Federal Government of Iraq and so what that means is that there is a possibility under English law that the Federal Government of Iraq could be held liable under these contracts."

So a precedent was set last year in an English court where it was determined that when the KRG signed the PSCs they did so on behalf of the Iraqi Government.

Rudaw 4 hours ago.

"Iraqi government may be 'held liable' for KRG signed contracts.

SULAIMANI, Kurdistan Region - Foreign investors could hold the Iraqi federal government “liable” for contracts signed between the Kurdish government and international oil operators if contractors suffer from substantial harm as a result of a court ruling against the Kurdistan Region’s oil industry, a senior lawyer told Rudaw last week.

In an interview with Rudaw conducted on July 28, Jeffrey M. Sullivan, Queen’s Counsel and partner in the London office of law firm Gibson Dunn said the Iraqi Federal Supreme Court’s decision deeming the Kurdish oil and gas law “unconstitutional” could trigger investment arbitration claims.

“Iraq has entered into international treaties that provide protection for foreign investors and those investors, therefore, have the right to seek redress in international arbitration,” Sullivan said, noting that the Iraqi government could be “held liable” for the contracts signed by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).

“There are contractor relationships with the KRG which tend to be governed by English law and the federal government of Iraq could also be held liable under those contracts,” he added.

The Iraqi Supreme Court in February found the Kurdistan Region’s oil and gas law to be “unconstitutional,” therefore striking down the legal basis for the independence of the Region’s oil and gas sector.

The KRG responded to the decision, saying that the court’s ruling is not only “unconstitutional” but also “unjust.”

“There are two different legal avenues for the oil investors,” said Sullivan, the first is “investment arbitrations, based on the international treaties Iraq has entered into which provide protection for foreign investors” and the second is “arbitration based on contractual relationships with the KRG which are governed by English law.”

Sullivan said “there are principles under the English law which could allow investors to hold the federal government of Iraq liable, even though the contracts are signed with the KRG,” referring to last years' ruling by an English court that “effectively said that the Iraqi government could be held liable for the petroleum contracts with the KRG.”

“There was a dispute before an English court in respect of a contract between an investor and the KRG and the English court ruled that the KRG was effectively acting under the sovereign power of the federal government of Iraq,” said Sullivan. “What that means is that there is a possibility in the English law that the government of Iraq could be held liable under these contracts.”

Disputes arose between Baghdad and Erbil in early 2014, when Baghdad cut the Region’s share of the federal budget, setting into motion a series of crises that the KRG still suffers from. By March 2014, the KRG started exporting its oil abroad in an attempt to secure the salaries of its employees.

The Iraqi and Kurdish governments were once again brought around the table in 2021 when Iraq was drafting its budget law. Both sides agreed that the KRG would continue its oil sales and would hand the revenue of 250,000 barrels of oil to Baghdad daily.

There are 52 oil blocks in the Kurdistan Region, 16 of them are in production, and 15 are in exploration phases. Over 30 international and local companies are working in the sector. The Region produces around 450,000 barrels per day.

The KRG last year pocketed a net of almost $4 billion in selling oil.

[hydrocarbon1] 05/8/2022 16:04

They started with oil 10 days ago
Bloomberg UK

Markets
Technology
Businessweek

Markets

Biggest Oil Stock ETF Sees Short Sellers Unwind Bets After Rout
Short positions in Energy Select fund drop 14%, S3 says
Seen as a sign that traders now ‘looking for a bottom’

[fairenough11] 05/8/2022 15:58

Short sellers getting nervy down here imo as the upside for us is frightening for them.

Mcktcap less cash/payables V reserves/resources is incredibly undervalued.

[shortsqueezer] 05/8/2022 15:38

And we've suddenly bounced in the opposite direction.

[97peter] 05/8/2022 15:33

RTK if what you say is the ducks in a row signals to a buyout/ takeover. Why isn’t there a stampede of PI’s and II’s loafing up and sending the share price to 250, then 275 and the. 300/325/350 in the last 7-10 stock open days????
I believe it will happen within 6 months but will come out of the blue!

[sbb1x] 05/8/2022 15:29

Lower lows on oil today 92.67

[releasethekraken] 05/8/2022 14:57

There are literally dozens of reasons to suspect the inevitable takeover of the company is finally nearby.Not least the company cavalier approach to cash liquidity all of a sudden , the new NED specialism, the FDP award most natural watershed for change of operator ship....etc etc etc

[habshan] 05/8/2022 14:55

"and be wondering why its taken them six years to add 3k a day."

No they won't Sarah. Like all the readers of this board except you the hosts know EXACTLY what has happened and why over the last six years and more and they KNOW that the problems were down to them and them only:-

MNR 3rd August 2015:- "Crude oil export is the principal revenue earner for the Kurdistan Region. But, it is also recognized that it is difficult for the IOCs to sustain oil export at its current levels, let alone increase it as planned, without receiving their financial dues".

RNS August 15 - "The KRG also recognizes the patience of the producing IOCs, which, despite receiving hardly any payments for their crude oil production since May 2014, have maintained operations and have continued to invest to support Kurdistan's crude oil export."

GKP were only able to keep going through those years by doing only the absolute basics and incurring more and more debt, and we all know how that worked out.

The fact that YOU don't understand it Sarah even though EVERY SINGLE STEP has been documented and discussed to the nth degree and is readily available for you to read and study is why you're regarded here as being a ridiculous laughing stock.

[bigdog5] 05/8/2022 14:53

oil_investor18 Jul '16 - 22:38 - 504754 of 659464
0 7 4

"My understanding is that the KRG are looking for 100,000 bopd to 150,000 bopd from Shaikan by end-2017. .
Not 55,000 bopd."



LOL, meanwhile 5 years on from that prediction the hosts get 45k a day!!!!!

[nufc9] 05/8/2022 14:53

Bigdog, why didn't you buy any shares when the share price was 60p? I thought you knew so much about the field, the company, shaikan and the whole oil market? You really called that one wrong big time didn't you. Could have made you a lot of money - oh well.

[bigdog5] 05/8/2022 14:48

Your guru reckoned on 110k a day by 2018, !!!!!!


oil_investor14 Jul '16 - 10:39 - 502841 of 659463
0 6 3
"The existing shareholders will have 14.5% of a net DEBT FREE COMPANY because the new bond of $100m is less than the c. $125 million which GKP will have at the bank at the end of this month (adding in the July 2016 production and the receipt from the underwritten Open Offer).

GKP will now proceed with expanding production to 55,000 bopd and beyond. This can IMO be achieved in a series of steps of 15,000 bopd to 20,000 bopd each, with each step taking something like 6 months. Four such steps would take production to c. 100,000 to 110,000 bopd by H1 2018 which might IMO fit the KRG's plans. The local group (Shaikan, Atrush and Swara Tika) could be producing 200,000 bopd by then via the 10-mile 36-inch KRG connection to the main export pipeline.

It's all down to THE BARRELS.

How many Recoverable Barrels are there in Shaikan?

That's the $64,000 question.

But of course...it always was".

[bigdog5] 05/8/2022 14:44

Now now harriet, they still have to convince the hosts that its achievable which means the hosts will need to see if and how the company intend to finance it. The hosts will of course look at the history of the company since the first wipeout in July 2016 and be wondering why its taken them six years to add 3k a day.

So would you expect the hosts to be impressed when they remember that in December 2014 the company were producing 42k a day and nearly eight years later they've had huge problems with achieving 45k a day? Its a very poor result considering 8 wells managed 40k a day and an additional seven wells have added 5k!!!!!

So all the hype and spin about achieving the 85k a day in around 42 months looks incredibly optimistic methinks.

And to drive home my point I will post up something that would have had at that time all you delusional idiots whacking off all over your laptops and salivating. However none of it has come to fruition.

[nestoframpers] 05/8/2022 14:33

I see BD is losing at GKP BB tennis again .

[highlander7] 05/8/2022 14:00

"So how would they be able to prove to the hosts the FDP can be funded"


Does this clueless idiot not understand that the FDP describes the development of the field over the lifetime of the PSC ? Does she also not understand that it is basically a feasibility study that gives probability figures for production output based on Oil Price ? ( and other variables). They do not have to prove anything. The only reason it has been passed to the KRG is because they are stakeholders in the PSC.

It is NOT a Contract and can be changed at any time , by , for example , the new owners. Were they to appear.

H7