Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[nobull] 19/12/2021 11:32

Paul, aka HERBERT_SMITH_FREEHILLS, BangGone, ReleasetheKraken,40quidminimum and your 100+ other monikers, I couldn't give a toss how many credulous cretins you scam - all I care about is it being relatively easy to find posts from people who can talk about GKP knowledgeably, and to do so without having to trawl through all your repeat posts - it's too much work trying to filter all your monikers as they tend not to last much more than a week before you burst through any filter.

A takeover in the very short term is a low probability event; over a long period e.g. 10 years, it is an event with a much higher probability of occurrence, but do you want to go to the bus stop a year before your bus is due? Paul wants you to.

A better reason to buy GKP is for average 50k bopd gross production throughout FY2022 on an oil price of say, $75, giving a net payment of $365.5m excluding the remaining net arrears of $36m (assuming we get the $4.9m September arrears payment this week). So all in all, I am forecasting FY2022 revenue (with a huge margin of error as I don't know what the exchange rate or oil price will do, and I've optimistically used an R factor of less than 1) of $401.5m ($365.5m net revenue + $36m arrears), which is £303m (£1 =$1.32358).

The analysts' consensus revenue forecast for the same period is

Year End Rev(£m) PTP(£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield

31-Dec-22 299.50 140.86 65.40p 2.7 0.1 +28% 15.70p 8.9%

So there you have it: the analysts are forecasting revenue close to my £303m figure. A PE of 2.7 is the same as an earnings yield of 37%, which means to get an earnings yield of 14% (the minimum a risk averse investor wants for being in this kind of stock), the share price needs to go up to £4.67p. So why is Canaccord Genuity only giving us a price target of £2.95?

If you assume an R factor of 2 in 2023 and the same production level and the same oil price and exchange rate, but no arrears payments in 2023, (as those will have been cleared in 2022, assuming we are never going back to invoices paid 15 days in arrears and will always receive payments 2.5 months’ late), revenue comes in lower at $322m or £243m, which would give much lower eps for 2023, so Charlie Sharpe’s price target of £2.95, in so far as it takes account of this, sounds reasonable.

The only thing that isn’t priced in that might attract a takeover is the exploration upside, I wonder?

The FDP represents permitting risk (not a slam dunk as Surreyscot/Highlander7 suggests, because as BroadfordBay has pointed out, there might be constructive engagement with the technical people, but that means nothing if the approval depends on politicians higher up, and we might be competing against other people who might offer bribes; we can’t do that.

The FID, if it is relevant, i.e. if the FDP gets approved, then that depends on finance being available at a reasonable price, I wonder? As always this stock is not without risk – that’s why it has a speculative risk rating. JMV.

[nestoframpers] 19/12/2021 10:52

Like German floods build more roads and houses and hope the old drains will cope .


ERBIL (Kurdistan 24) – A committee will investigate infrastructure issues in Erbil province, Prime Minister Masrour Barzani said during a press conference after deadly flash floods in the area that has killed 11 residents so far.

Barzani's remarks came following an emergency meeting he chaired at the Erbil Governorate building with local officials and members of his cabinet to discuss relief efforts in the affected areas.

One of the factors that caused the flooding "was the obstruction of the sewerage system," Barzani said. In addition, he noted there had been shortcomings in the design of the city's wastewater collection network.

[nestoframpers] 19/12/2021 10:45

GKP would have gone ages ago if not for ISIS and the politics. Will the politics continue to delay or not? I have no idea.


Rudaw English
@RudawEnglish
·
17 Dec
Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani allocates $685,000 to people affected by the Friday floods in Erbil. The money will be spent through the Erbil governor’s office, Rwanga Foundation and Barzani Charity Foundation, according to a statement from Rwanga Foundation

[fairenough11] 19/12/2021 10:10

H7,Yes the FDP and what it entails.Cost,scope,timescales etc

Then,once we know the details,the next question will be....

Who's gonna deliver the FDP

[highlander7] 19/12/2021 10:02

Its the FDP that has the answer to all of this. Which is why they are sitting on it.
I dont believe a word of this "draft" FDP being submitted to the Kurds. Its all BS.

IMO

[fairenough11] 19/12/2021 09:52

GKP has massive,already discovered,reserves/resources with much greater volumes as yet "unbooked".As we thought,such res. are now much sought after as "new" drilling/exploration winds down but demand remains high.
Onshore/cheap to extract/all in one place--The holy grail---THE PRIZE.

GLA.

[eddie47] 19/12/2021 09:35

I think it has been pretty obvious that, ever since Excalibur launched the litigation, this was going hostile. Gulfkeystone has been under attack for years.

[herbert_smith_freehills] 19/12/2021 08:34

Yes it's true the % numbers voting have reduced from 61 to 48% in past 3 years.The balance of around 40% ISC (issued share capital) that sits outside top 10 is large 60% in top 10 40% outside in holdings of less than 2.6% and much smallerAny acquirer would have been stake building for years and they will hold some of this I'd expect a hostile bid shortly

[herbert_smith_freehills] 19/12/2021 08:33

NOBULL LOLOLOLOL he cares so much for us What a wonderful clown( amongst several paid to constantly attack here and at LSE ) he is.

[herbert_smith_freehills] 19/12/2021 08:13

We just need to wait for first bid H That's clearly where this is now going

[highlander7] 19/12/2021 07:55

What we need released is the FDP !!

[releasethekraken] 19/12/2021 07:12

HTTPS://twitter.com/goodnightcharl1/status/1471844916020101124?s=21HOSTILE BIDS

[steephill cove] 19/12/2021 00:18

Mmm, large chunk not voting 🗳

And if that large chunk of non voters, does not welcome further imminent GKP dividends (Dilution) & a GKP share buyback & retirement (Harder to acquire) 😘

GKP with Perella Weinberg & robust defence strategies will be drawing out the first bid.

IMHO GKP = Hostile Takeover target 👍

[steephill cove] 19/12/2021 00:14

Shortsqueezer, theres not enough PIs left that are not voting 🗳 to influence a percentage of that magnitude.

GKP is in play & going HOSTILE TAKEOVER 👍

[steephill cove] 19/12/2021 00:12

HSF = Spot on 👍

[nobull] 18/12/2021 21:58

Who is this clown ffs

Yourself, a.k.a. (among over 100 other monikers you have used)including, just in the last two weeks: 40quidminimum, BangGone, Herbert_Smith_Freehills, and now ReleasetheKraken.

The problem of giving low probability events (such as a hostile bid before Xmas) a high probability is you are as wrong as often as you sham a new online personality, but the conspiracy theory content of your posts identifies you a mile off no matter which moniker you post under.

All your attention whoring with repeating the same posts over and over again doesn't seem to have attracted any new real world investors to GKP. The supply of credulous cretins who might believe your conspiracy theory nonsense is maybe non existent. Why not limit yourself to posting each new proposition just once?

[goatcam] 18/12/2021 21:12

“Yes it’s true the % numbers voting have reduced from 61 to 48% in past 3 years”

If someone was stakebuilding they would have easily been able to get more shares than that over 3 years... doesn’t really make sense why they should move so slow

[releasethekraken] 18/12/2021 20:18

Yes it's true the % numbers voting have reduced from 61 to 48% in past 3 years.The balance of around 40% ISC (issued share capital) that sits outside top 10 is large 60% in top 10 40% outside in holdings of less than 2.6% and much smallerAny acquirer would have been stake building for years and they will hold some of this I'd expect a hostile bid shortly

[releasethekraken] 18/12/2021 20:13

Who is this clown ffs

[nestoframpers] 18/12/2021 20:06

Nice to know Eddie , we are sitting pretty .

[nobull] 18/12/2021 19:18

"Small shareholder's hold around 10-12% max"

Total rubbish. Small shareholders are likely to be all the holders not displayed in the top 25 holdings by size (See the top 25 shareholders in the GKP SimplyWallStreet Report). The more credulous cretins you attract with your imminent hostile takeover nonsense, the more likely these new 'investors' are people who hold an interest in GKP through spreadbets, and why would the spreadbetting company vote any of the underlying shares it might have been forced to buy?

Voting, to a spreadbetting firm, is an expense, in staff time, without any obvious benefit. I bet you didn't vote either. Spam off the sensible posters, scam the rest and sham a few new posting monikers - you're good at all those things; credit where it is due.

[eddie47] 18/12/2021 18:07

Total and Shell among Brazil oilfield winners - FT 18.12.21... The global push for clean energy has left oil companies hesitant about traditional exploration. By joining consortiums in areas with well established reserves and relatively clean production, the oil groups can prop up their supply with limited environmental and reputational impact . . . In these fields there was already oil discovered, so the operational risk is lower'.

[nestoframpers] 18/12/2021 16:47

I am sure GKP will be sold for a good price too but the often predicted great depression is likely to be soon the way the Gov's are carrying on. As Julie Hartley Brewer says , this so called 'pandemic' is over when we say so not the Gov.

[nestoframpers] 18/12/2021 16:29

China and Russia to establish independent financial systems: Russian media
By Global Times
Published: Dec 17, 2021 12:47 AM