Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[pensioner2] 26/7/2019 16:16

You might be right there, Urals, as the volume seems to be drying up and they'll struggle to spend the $25m at this rate.

[urals] 26/7/2019 15:59

OAP, buying a few million say 5m concentrates by, Div by 0.2pSo it's all at margins. The real boost for sale proceeds OR Div would be a serious off mkt buyback of say 60-80m shares, they have the spare cash, the authority, I expect that next wk or two, or if its sold maybe contemporaneously. Well at 230 you are getting 4.87% yield for holding 3-4wks, which is nice.The company of course buying at 230 is actually only paying 218.8Its saving 11.2 p for every share it buys. As no dividend will be paid on treasury stock.However everything points to stabilisation pre sale in which case you get a serious premium.In my view that will be 3-400%minimum.Only GKPHero here seems to have an opinion on that possibility, he anticipates a 4,300%premium.Somewhere between two IF it is sold.If it isn't you get 4.87% cash. So rather little not to like.

[mcfly02] 26/7/2019 15:53

GoatCam rules 🖕

[pensioner2] 26/7/2019 15:46

Not quite so, Urals. True no divi on treasury stock but as the divi is a global amount, i.e. $33.333m, then the less number of shares to go round, the more per share.

[urals] 26/7/2019 15:38

Well at 230 you are getting 4.87% yield for holding 3-4wks, which is nice.The company of course buying at 230 is actually only paying 218.8Its saving 11.2 p for every share it buys. As no dividend will be paid on treasury stock.However everything points to stabilisation pre sale in which case you get a serious premium.In my view that will be 3-400%minimum.Only GKPHero here seems to have an opinion on that possibility, he anticipates a 4,300%premium.Somewhere between two IF it is sold.If it isn't you get 4.87% cash. So rather little not to like.

[pensioner2] 26/7/2019 15:24

It looks like they don't want to pay more than 230 for the buyback but if quite a few of us popped in and bought some more.............they might have to.

[j0sekl] 26/7/2019 14:07

On the one hand they say you know nothing and yet they also accuse you having inside info.

welshki says I don't know what value investing is, but needs me to point out what methodology to consider and was so ignorant in questions that I had to provide obvious criteria.

[urals] 26/7/2019 11:41

It concentrates ownership which accretes value if they have sold it. If they haven't it increases dividend yield. The rule of thumb used to be if you had up to 20% more cash than was prudently required for operating the business, issue dividends. More than 20% then buyback shares if the stock materially undervalued. This company is doing both albeit the in market buyback actually price stabilisation most likely. "Jeez - 'A share buyback is one of the best ways to directly return value to shareholders when share price is undervalued'"

[j0sekl] 26/7/2019 11:32

Tell us statistically, what's your success rate? Let's see the relevance of "as far as I can see". What have you ever seen?
The reverse restructure?! What a way to expunge yourself.

1.7m shares.. yes tell us again what's in store for such unexceptional volume?

[urals] 26/7/2019 11:29

GKPHero hardly rocketing?? Will if they've sold it. 2-3weeks to discover either way. Far as I can see from a 2018 accounts + issued 2019 its :2,840, 000 outstanding staff LTIP options. 1,612,000 vest Feb 2021 1,228,000 vest Apr 2022Vest immediately on change of control /sale, hence Co wanting to buy them in NOW + stabilise SP1,709, 000 bought so far in market, still expect a much bigger off mkt pre agreed buyback, would make huge sense pre Sale announcement

[j0sekl] 26/7/2019 11:23

Urals 26 Jul '19 - 10:36 - 588488 of
Will discover sale or not for certain within 2-3weeks!



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26/07/2019 " sale or not for certain within 2-3weeks! "

I like that air of certainty. Shame you're a two-faced lying Muppet who won't shut up after 3 weeks like every other takeover prediction going by the last 7 years.

Usually people wait for an RNS, only you and a few others have nothing better to do with your life than speculate wild guesses. What a life ;)

The stalker too.. an obsession with oilman's life, business and family.. needs to have some sense knocked into him, first time didn't seem to work ;)

[urals] 26/7/2019 11:22

Far as I can see from a 2018 accounts + issued 2019 its :2,840, 000 outstanding staff LTIP options. 1,612,000 vest Feb 2021 1,228,000 vest Apr 2022Vest immediately on change of control /sale, hence Co wanting to buy them in NOW + stabilise SP1,709, bought so far in market, still expect a much bigger off mkt pre agreed buyback, would make huge sense pre Sale announcement

[gkphero] 26/7/2019 11:18

SP rocketing.

[urals] 26/7/2019 10:36

Have to agree with this . IF a sale incoming, as given the Cos stated need to buy shares now, seems certain, the price stabilisation aka buyback program is working very well so far. If MM cannot drop the price hugely, their normal method of buying stock, then it needs inching higher.Will discover sale or not for certain within 2-3weeks! https://twitter.com/Paul47293202/status/1154684086658711553?s=19

[nestoframpers] 26/7/2019 09:36

Mikey

In short, IMO through the use of weight and “selling into” any rise, the price is being held below 230

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GKP know the time frame they don't have to hurry, measured controlled and nothing's happening till the HCL is sorted. Bottom draw for a good while yet.

[stockport loser] 26/7/2019 09:26

I warned you not to Bloe Jon, down 20%, although a drop in the ocean compared to yours and Paul's nose dive on this mutt.

[gkphero] 26/7/2019 09:08

Nah loser, you're just bitter because Bigdog's playing hard to get.

[stockport loser] 26/7/2019 09:07

I think the term ' not long ' was used when Rupert got his Twinkie out at the Cottage down the Wharf.Traders smashing this down already for another Mikey cut and shut T20 trade special - whilst the BOD laugh at long term mug punters.

[gkphero] 26/7/2019 08:35

Going to pop down and get a limited edition frozen field vole flavoured Magnum. Way too hot this early down the wharf.

The queue is looking long and I know GKP is being talked about with excitement these days.

"Not long" is the word.

[gkphero] 26/7/2019 08:29

I feel that the price will be closer to £99.50 per share.

[urals] 26/7/2019 07:46

By my reckoning staff options vesting o/s to be satisfied 3m or so? Pre Sale may be an off mkt buy transaction, all options down would be adjusted pro rata to a Concn of capital.around 1.7m bought so far so week or two more. Ties with D-28 being around 5/7 + sale D-0 announcement w/c 29/7 / w/c 5/8Company is putting buyback shares into Treasury only to satisfy this early vesting, then it's 99.99% certain a sale will be announced.Views on likely sale price £? assuming their isn't an off mkt buyback. (I believe their will /should be) keeps expectations sensibly grounded. £12-14 seems prudent $ 2.5-3bn consideration paid.