Griffin Mining Share Discussion Threads

[millwallfan] 04/12/2018 15:26

I don't think sage was ever suggesting the correlation was hour by hour or day by day but it follows simple logic that what is predominantly a zinc mine will predominantly have its share price affected by its primary commodity. Everyone agrees there are other factors in play and Alan will probably be proved right once the USA china spat resolution filters through. Company communication, the licence approval, operating in china, the chinese winter and even that dreaded brxxxt will all have a part to play in the end game - but whatever you think, barring a major mining accident, the licence and the price of zinc will be the only real game changers here.

[alangrifbang] 04/12/2018 14:52

Well rose yes it did go up,and went straight back down,so it's not the price of zinc this time,must be something else,I really did think if trump and China made an agreement it would be very good for griffin,once again wrong!

[rose_by_another_name] 04/12/2018 14:30

Once again we see how the rising zinc price is the
only possible factor influencing Griffin's share price

[leopoldalcox] 04/12/2018 13:40

Zinc up and lead up. :)

[alangrifbang] 04/12/2018 08:19

Morning,zinc up again ,it seems to be on a roll at the moment ,let's keep our fingers crossed and hope,

[phillis] 03/12/2018 18:22

Rose
Options exercised could be bought into Treasury simultaneously by the Company could they not?
Perhaps the Company hasn't enough cash to buy those of Ninkov's transferee

:-)

[rose_by_another_name] 03/12/2018 16:27

I don't think there is any suggestion of corruption,
just that officials became nervous about appearances
since the penalties have included execution.

[millwallfan] 03/12/2018 16:20

Sko. You have clearly adopted a prudent approach to your calculations. I did not want to suggest £2.50 for fear of being accused of blatant ramping. Yes, corruption in government officials has been a major issue, and rightly so, I was not in any way suggesting anything corrupt, the licence has been issued in principle and as far as I am aware we just await final approval to commence mining. Surely there would be nothing untoward in major chinese zinc wholesalers agreeing a legally binding contract with GFM to purchase the zinc at spot prices, or even a small discount if savings in transport costs were available? Would seem logical business sense and a win win for all, as the chinese authorities would benefit from additional tax revenues.

[rose_by_another_name] 03/12/2018 14:09

At least they have not issued themselves a
whole lot of new ones. Yet.

The stated rationale is revealing. Apparently, to
exercise the options now would involve selling a
lot of shares into the market (potentially driving
down the SP). Clearly the idea of buying cheap
shares and holding them for future gains is not
appealing.

[phillis] 03/12/2018 12:55

Rose

In the meantime the Directors have had their options rolled over
Why?
They have failed to get the share price up to the right level so they should fall away

But hang on - guess who is the major beneficiary; the entity to which Ninkov transferred his options for a de minimis value

[skopolitis] 03/12/2018 12:45

Met you are correct: if the licence comes through and they produce from both zones throughout 2020 fair value would be around £2.50. I have allowed for the very different metal concentrations in the two zones, and also assumed the new zone only produce around 65% the volume of the current zone. I have also said ( my opinion but based on quite a lot of reading on zinc) that at current stocks levels, and with constrained smelter capacity, zinc should be at $3,000 once Trump/China resolves itself. My forecasts are based on zinc at around $2,500.

[rose_by_another_name] 03/12/2018 12:05

Years back someone mooted that the licence was
being held up because of the Chinese crackdown
on official corruption, causing officials to be
overly cautious about appearing to be bribed,
especially by foreigners.

[millwallfan] 03/12/2018 10:54

Apologies meant to include that if your figures are in the ballpark even at a p/e of 8 to 10 we would be looking at an share price of £2 plus in 2020.

[millwallfan] 03/12/2018 10:52

Sky. Thank you - much more detailed analysis than my guesstimate. I think many holders would be happy with your projections if they materialise. Given the apparent thawing of relationships between USA and china and GFM's good standing - Do you believe the final licence approval to actually commence mining will occur within the next 6-9 months ? I guess the potential world shortage of zinc might help - china can have more on its doorstep - I have never understood why they have never agreed a deal to purchase all GFM output in exchange for licence extension !!

[up just a little bit] 03/12/2018 10:29

It would be great if we had the license

[skopolitis] 03/12/2018 08:34

From my very detailed analyses (see posts on LSE) I am sticking with my forecast of between $45m - $48m pre tax for 2018 ($32m - $34m after tax). This equates to fully diluted EPS of (in sterling @ 1.30) 13.1p - 13.9p. If similar metals prices hold in 2019, and with 3 months contribution from the new licence, I can talk myself into 18.5p in 2019, and 25.6p in 2020. All these forecasts would allow for some cash to be returned to shareholders.

[millwallfan] 01/12/2018 17:24

Are u talking £ or $ ?? At worst 50 million is still 25 cents a share or 18p. We have cash in bank so keep 13p to boost working capital and more mine upgrade/expansion in anticipation of licence green light and bobs your uncle 3-5p dividend in April. Counter arguments and figures welcome

[slopsjon2] 01/12/2018 08:12

Back to GFM, Sharepad tells me the profit forecast for 2019 has been updated to 47.8m with the current year forecast as 54.5m the trend seems to be down.

Not a holder at the moment.

[alangrifbang] 01/12/2018 08:11

Zinc up quite a bit ,hope this shows in the price on Monday,
By the way phillis what is granny up to ,

[millwallfan] 30/11/2018 18:10

Chart shows a late morning dip to 96.5 then up twice to finish 98p so I take that as a positive that someone somewhere thinks 96 is cheap. Wonder of its the griffiths family again stakebuilding ????

[rose_by_another_name] 30/11/2018 18:04

No downturn. The countries of Europe will
be rebuilding after they leave the EU one
by one, and cheap fracked oil will be here
for awhile. They can do it in the North Sea
without the protesters.

[buywell3] 30/11/2018 15:56

If things get worse for miners over the next 1 to 2 years re Global Downturn happening

Which if it does happen ... is going to be a macro affecting nearly every sector of the markets

Chartwise this could retest 50p again IMO

[alangrifbang] 30/11/2018 15:01

Don't know phillis ,so you tell us,

[phillis] 30/11/2018 13:58

What is Granny up to now?

[alangrifbang] 30/11/2018 12:59

I agree sage,just as boring as GFM right now,