Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

[fordtin] 01/2/2024 12:04

re; post #614 "latency issues with renewable energy sources have been put forward as a reason why the ESO frequently skips batteries for gas energy as power station produced electricity does not suffer from these issues."

Are you absolutely sure gas heated steam turbines have no latancy issues?

[marktime1231] 01/2/2024 11:30

So maybe it would have been better if they hadn't announced anything!

Yes it looks like the "news" was circulating earlier this week, but actually unusually large sells began on 24 Jan. Someone was pretty sure ahead of the market.

Plan A - deliver the pipeline failed. But we will redouble our useless efforts to get it done, blaming others, and continue to extend durations which was a no-brainer yonks ago. Plan B - we promised OBP would save the day but it doesn't. Plan C - there is no plan C. So much for rumours of commercial storage services to private enterprises. Cut the ambition, cut the dividend, cut the borrowing, cut capex, cut the dividend a bit more.

How about cutting some of the people who were "pleased" while presiding over this collapse?

Unbelievable that they admit they don't have the cash cover to honour the final dividend but will find some cash ... raiding the bank ... for an unspecified buyback. And, even if revenue stabilises they now say the previous dividend rate, which was raised at the start of this year, was unsustainable. That was a con then?

What about NAV, how do we know what the discount is?

If this is now such an unreasonable discount of a reliable investment sufficient to deserve an emergency buyback with shareholder cash uncovered by income perhaps the board and key investors would care to communicate their confidence in that proposition with a series of substantial purchases of their own.

And then I might buy some back when we hit ... 30p, 20p, 10p anyone?

[topvest] 01/2/2024 11:13

Blimey - HEIT appears to be in an even worse position on debt. I've exited that one. Thankfully, both small positions! Is the GRID debt being amortised yet? That is a key point on looking at renewables and dividend cover.

[bsdjj] 01/2/2024 10:13

I read somewhere that latency issues with renewable energy sources have been put forward as a reason why the ESO frequently skips batteries for gas energy as power station produced electricity does not suffer from these issues.This is not something that the battery funds admit to...

[wskill] 01/2/2024 10:09

Looking at the BESS market why will companies invest in this sector when returns are so low and likely to get lower with much more BESS schemes going live ,I saw that SSE are also opening a lot of BESS but is this to make money on BESS or to keep pricing low.

[nickrl] 01/2/2024 10:03

Jefferies are GRIDs house broker so ought to have seen this coming much earlier. Low pricing for BESS has been a known fact for last six months. Dividend is trash here for sometime imv. The Balancing Reserve product will be run via auction and has all the hallmarks of Ancillary Services although at least here they will need to use gas for a big chunk of it so will at least keep the price higher but the more BESS are commissioned the more that will want to enter this market.

[bsdjj] 01/2/2024 09:52

Well that would be the decent thing to do but no doubt they won't do it. cf. DGI9.

[yump] 01/2/2024 09:51

Lucky I haven’t got GRID but have got some HEIT - same problem.

If jeffries are brokers and were pushing grid, then they’re shysters, nothing more.

[newbold120] 01/2/2024 09:50

Maybe they should change the management fee to lower of nav or market cap?

[bsdjj] 01/2/2024 09:48

I wouldn't give Jeffries much credit. I believe they are GRIDs broker and have been marketing the fund to investors from the beginning along with the company on the basis of producing "sustainable" dividends which incidently is still on the spiel from the company at the bottom of the announcement. As recently as last summer they raised £50m for GRID last summer at 155p on projections that were woefully optimistic.Getting back to GRIDs prospects given the majority of the shareholder base arewealth managers whose clients are probably income based it is no surprise that there is a rush for the exit but as long as the NAV remains comfortably above 100p there should be some support.Would be good to see a (non-token) share purchase or two from the board and Mr. Guest.

[topvest] 01/2/2024 09:44

I do feel that GRID have been dragged kicking and screaming to admit their failings. I'm not sure they have been very open and always significantly behind the market rather than being proactive. Anyway, there is some value here now but it may take a few years to get £1 back.

[spectoacc] 01/2/2024 09:12

Best viewed from about 3 miles away.

[the deacon] 01/2/2024 09:07

The likes of JLEN and other diversified's have been saying this for months. A very challenging and unattractive market for BESS. Best viewed as part of, and not the sole focus of a renewables trust - in my opinion

[spectoacc] 01/2/2024 08:52

Analyst ratings follow the price, no doubt, but big credit to Jeffries for calling this - their note caused the initial falls, which GRID's t/s today confirms the validity of.

[igoe104] 01/2/2024 08:39

Just registered for the 11.15 zoom meeting, that should be interesting.. you can forward any questions when you register...

[cc2014] 01/2/2024 08:35

I do not wish to be picky but I will.

1. Some of HEIT's income is from capacity contracts that are already in place at fixed prices. Same with GRID. The spot price is irrelevant for these. I don't know about HEIT so much but some of GRID's would have had 15 years on them when started. One would have to look up the details.

2. If you look at what HEIT are earning off their batteries it is more than the average. They are top of the list for all providers. Unsurprising as their batteries are the newest.

Having said all that Jefferies point remains value over the gearing. It's too high an not being managed.

IMHO any project in this sector that is not under construction needs to be binned now unless the owner has already won a capacity contract for it.

[spectoacc] 01/2/2024 08:18

Jeffries came in for a lot of stick but hats off to them.

[topvest] 01/2/2024 08:15

What will the NAV per share be on the year-end valuation, I wonder? Maybe not anywhere near as bad as the share price collapse! 100-120p would be my guess.

[topvest] 01/2/2024 08:13

Fortunately I only have a small position here, but Gresham House have really messed it up. It will be interesting to see how Ben Guest spins this disaster at the presentation. It looks like they have given up on the Californian project as well - this was ill conceived from day 1. I wonder whether they can sell it and how much they have invested so far? HEIT are possibly slightly better placed as they already have 2hr duration batteries, which is what GRID should have built initially. Nevertheless, the sector is on its knees and will therefore struggle to recover for a few years. Lack of dividend cover was the warning sign...don't invest in renewable energy if the dividend is not well covered.

[igoe104] 01/2/2024 08:04

Looks like somebody has leaked some information in advance of dividend cut , poor show from the management..

[1c3479z] 01/2/2024 07:32

Question is are we at the nadir of the market for Battery storage and the ESO initiatives outlined will increase the opportunities in Feb, March and over the summer?

[spectoacc] 01/2/2024 07:26

Wow, yes - exactly what I was going to copy/paste.

"...Recalibrate..", lol. Shareholders have been recalibrated..

Surely there's huge question marks around yesterday's massive fall ahead of this morning's t/s.

And where's the same thing from HEIT?


Edit - seems to be some smoke & mirrors, they're stating they'll use the missed divi money to buy back shares instead. Yet the missed divi is because the financials have turned bad, the business model is currently structurally challenged, and they have a clear need to preserve cash.

From what I can see, it's the retrenching on CapEx/intention to make some sales that enables a small buy back. Cutting the divi is a desperate measure for GRID.

Feel for those caught out by the fall yesterday, which is when this t/s should have appeared.