Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

[cruelladeville] 31/1/2024 13:07

I would but I think this could easily drop by half again. With a company news vacuum, there seems no support here at all.

[brwo349] 31/1/2024 12:16

No end in sight to this absolute bloodbath.

Is anyone else thinking of just buying a few for no other reason the fall has been so big and it is due some kind of a bounce back?

[dickiehh] 30/1/2024 23:19

Wow, down from 110p to 65p in a month! And no news after the 15th December where the Board say it's pleased with the new OBP and Ben Guest points to "higher revenue opportunities"So, what has changed? Surely the Board should say something?

[marktime1231] 29/1/2024 17:06

Hmmmn, no response from GRID to the perception circulating that revenue has tumbled and there is barely any net income to cover any dividend. Nothing more on delayed sites, nothing to follow the December announcement that participation in the ESO balancing of the peak demand market will substitute the income. 68p is existential, perhaps, for the managers who screwed up, tried to cover up, and didn't have a plan B until it was too late. Not even a pathetic buy from any of the board this time, so the gloom is justified. Still not tempted back here.

[llef] 29/1/2024 10:44

there is a lot of new supply coming to the market over the next couple of years

e.g.
Zenobē reaches financial close and begins construction of its Kilmarnock South battery project, a transformative 300MW/600MWh asset to reduce wasted wind energy and power Scotland’s renewable energy future.
As part of Zenobē’s £750 million commitment to doubling Scotland’s battery storage capacity in just three years, the operation is due online in late 2025, propelling the nation towards energy autonomy.

hxxps://www.zenobe.com/news-and-events/zenobe-commences-construction-of-its-kilmarnock-south-battery-project-in-drive-to-maximise-renewables-and-reduce-the-cost-of-wasted-wind/

and

SSE Renewables has taken a Final Investment Decision (FID) to proceed with the construction of one of the UK’s largest battery energy storage system (BESS) projects in Monk Fryston, Yorkshire.

The 320MW / 640MWh grid-scale battery is SSE Renewables’ third BESS development to reach this stage, following on from its 50MW Salisbury and 150MW Ferrybridge BESS projects. Construction will begin in the coming months.

hxxps://www.sserenewables.com/news-and-views/2023/11/construction-to-start-on-sse-renewables-320mw-bess-project-in-yorkshire/

[spangle93] 29/1/2024 08:57

From Citywire weekly summary



There was no reprieve for energy storage and other specialist renewable infrastructure funds. Battery funds Gore Street (GSF), Harmony Energy Income (HEIT) and Gresham House (GRID) tumbled between 5%-19%. This left the shares trailing their asset values by 37%-52% with yields of about 9%-11% suggesting the market anticipates dividend cuts from the alt-income funds this year.

Falling UK revenues left dividends of all three funds uncovered last year and with no sign of a let-up in 2024, Jefferies analyst Matthew Hose believed they would have to reassess their distribution policies.

‘We estimate calendar 2023 dividend cover to be 0.1 times for GRID, 0.5 times for GSF and 0.0 times for HEIT (ie, costs are offsetting cash income). Coupled with the funds’ capital constraints, requiring capital to fund constructions projects, this results in material risks to current dividends, particularly as the pressures on GB battery revenue are unlikely to ease until at least the fourth quarter this year,’ Hose said in a note yesterday.

[nickrl] 25/1/2024 21:41

The original investment driver was ESO ancillary services but that market has been bashed down by the ESO auction process. That of course isn't the only opportunity here fortunately as there is the BM and wholesale mkt to go after. Again in the BM mkt alot of assets are now in play and whilst the new Open Balancing Platform has certainly given BESS assets a decent cut of the action again a lot of assets are participating and if you want a piece of the action you need to price competitively hence price will get forced down like ancillary services. Wholesale is now looking the most lucrative income stream if you can nail down the settlement periods when price is low to import and hit the peak half hour when price is likely to be high. Difficult to know how well they are doing until we get some trading updates. Also I'm not convinced most scribblers even understand this sector and are driving prices down on higher for longer and discount rates.

[marktime1231] 25/1/2024 17:55

Extraordinary plunge, needs a board response but have they got anything good to say?

[igoe104] 25/1/2024 17:36

Its like the market has already priced in a nasty profit warning, even though its not happened. I've seen afew profit warning from companies this year, and they still haven't fallen as much as these.. 🤷

[jpatara3] 25/1/2024 16:54

Jefferies note has certainly intensified the negative news that is about to come out regarding GRID. If GRID can't pay dividends or have to reduce them they should come and say it. It wouldn't deter me from my investment as battery storage is required in the U.K. to balance supply and demand.

[igoe104] 25/1/2024 16:13

I'm getting intouch with the company to get to the bottom of the situation. 36% fall in 25 days, and trading 51% below the NAV needs explaining?

[waterloo01] 25/1/2024 15:54

There is a Jefferies note out on the sector. Not my find but is on GSF thread.

[igoe104] 25/1/2024 15:49

Nickemer no point guessing, we want to see facts. The board seem confident of covering the dividend. So no reason to 2nd guess things until we see it in writing.

Chair John Leggate said: "In particular, strong dividend cover in 2021 and 2022 has allowed us to maintain our committed dividend increase for 2023, despite reduced revenues this year. As more projects come online and installed capacity increases later in 2023 and into 2024, we expect full run-rate dividend cover to return."

[nickelmer] 25/1/2024 15:10

Highly likely to be forced to cut the dividend going forwards

[mr george stobbart] 25/1/2024 12:51

Is it true that this ponzi is going bust any day now?

[igoe104] 17/1/2024 19:46

Big discount to the NAV nearly 41% now.

Just shows folks panic in a falling market..

[dickiehh] 17/1/2024 16:13

No news announcements from the company but yet share price is down 25 percent since the start of the year. Hmm ...

[nickrl] 17/1/2024 13:51

@CC2014 looking at Bloxwich battery (not the biggest but just too much data on Elexon and you can't filter by batteries currently) they had it on charge between 0100-0600. It was then instructed to provide 41MW for 15m 0739-0754 (we wont know exactly what happened until early Feb as actual gen data is delayed) its offer price was £112MW/h of course how much it bought the energy for isn't known but it was offering to buy at £50/MWh during wee hours but that is for the ESO to sink too much generation and they didn't ask them to.
So this morning they would have sent out 10MWh and got 11k for it they were also instructed upto 13MW for 10m later on so another few k. Will look again later to get an all day picture and look at what it might be making.

Its BMU ID is E_ARNKB-1 and its managed by Arenko Cleantech Limited

[nerja] 17/1/2024 12:09

Thanks for that CC2014 , coming close to last low if that fails to support it then i think quite a lot of stops will be taken out.

[cc2014] 17/1/2024 11:54

#561. Someone is selling GRID(not just GRID but lots of stuff) and is struggling to find significant buyers. I have been watching GSF more closely. Two sellers in size on GSF over the last few days but there have been plenty of buyers and I suspect one seller finished and other is happy enough to shift their volume slowly.

On GRID no buyers in size thus price is still in trouble and sellers are having to continue to drop the price to encourage buyers. Possibly though it's having the opposite effect as maybe some longs are capitulating.

[cc2014] 17/1/2024 11:47

@nickrl. I feel like I'm struggling with lack of information on the delta you describe. If I try to consider for example the balancing mechanism which had the step change in mid December which was supposed to generate lots more revenue for battery storage I have the following:

None of GRID/GSF/HEIT have updated the market. GRID aren't exactly shy coming forward so I assume it isn't working out as well (yet?) as expected. The share price would seem to reflect this. If I look at the BESS figures for the last month, I see a positive outcome. It does look significantly more revenue for this but there have been periods in the past with such numbers so whilst the numbers seem optimistic, I'm not sure the numbers are conclusive. On the other hand it wouldn't surprise me that the National Grid are going slower than promised and some balancing is still being done manually through gas - old habits are hard to shift.

[nerja] 17/1/2024 11:40

What do you think CC2014 ,seller or shorter

[cc2014] 17/1/2024 11:25

The 2k and 10k's are orders hitting the MM's which are sitting on the book.

3 of the MM's deal place lumps of 10k on the book. 8 others offer lots of 2k. 1 offers 5k.

[nickrl] 17/1/2024 11:24

@CC2014 im negative GRID still not sure on HEIT as it never intended to rely upon ancillary services. What we don't know yet is how much revenue can be generated from buying low and selling back high as that opportunity is pretty well there everyday but at what delta(£/MWh) they need to generate income im not clear.

[nerja] 17/1/2024 11:08

The 2k and 10k is back today!