Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

[willywonka12] 04/10/2022 14:49

Tories sleaze .have such a lead and lose it = in fighting

[willywonka12] 04/10/2022 14:48

It looks like another Labour government will get in next and there into battery storage.

[marktime1231] 30/9/2022 17:45

Phew.

Director buying, big add at 156p and a smaller one today at 167p, is a comfort. Imagine they have a better view of recent income performance, project commissioning and NAV progress than we do based on the interim report. And a good view of any major developments being considered.

So we can guess 156p was indeed below Q3 NAV and we can hope 167p might be exceeded before year end/the next big issue.

Not tempted to subscribe to Citywire based on that article but you know your stuff so thanks for the suggestion. I thought GRIDs gearing or lack of it was transparent, I thought it was GSF hiding its borrowing in project subsidiaries?

[jonwig] 29/9/2022 14:30

markt - it's a good article, and Citywire is well worth the free registration.

GRID the investment trust is debt free, but there will be project debt held within the subsidiaries. This is usually non-recourse, but not at all negligible.

We don't know the names of the subsidiaries, and most of their "names" don't come up on Companies House. I found one that does, Roundponds Energy Ltd, which oddly was dissolved on 31/05/22.GRID aren't helpful when it comes to looking into their projects. (They are no alone there!)

[speedsgh] 29/9/2022 14:22

Slightly misleading headline. It is the Stifel analyst (not GRID) who is suggesting that there may be scope for a special dividend IF revenues from the energy trading side of the business are strong over the winter.

... "Stifel analyst Sachin Saggar said the results were good with 89% of revenues coming from frequency response services, although he noted Guest’s comment that pricing here will fall as more supply comes on stream in the second half.

Nevertheless, he was optimistic that energy trading through the winter could provide a boost for dividends where GRID is on track to meet a 7p-per-share target for the year after paying 3.5p in the first half, 1.18 times covered by earnings.

‘Gresham House has the largest portfolio of operational batteries and is best placed to take advantage if we do see a marked shift to trading. If higher revenues are realised there is also scope for a special dividend in 2023,’ said Saggar."...

[marktime1231] 29/9/2022 13:37

Unfortunately I can't read that article. Or maybe it is just as well.

What rate fears and when? GRID is effectively debt free at present, agreements and terms in place for £30M of working credit, £150M of investment loan plus a £200M accordion, which is sufficient to see through its committed pipeline.

What hint about what special dividend? Due to the May share issue and project delays the regular dividend is only just covered by income, hardly awash with distributable cash until they complete the commissioning programme through Q1 2023, and then I would hope GRID are thinking of progression to the regular dividend not splashing cash on a special.

[speedsgh] 28/9/2022 23:04

GRID battles rate fears and hints at special dividend after powering through first half -

[nickrl] 28/9/2022 20:31

Interesting to see they are moving battery duration upto 1.5hrs and retrofitting some sites to increase duration to 2hrs must be fearing HEITs imminent commissioning of 2hr batteries! I was expecting more revenue from wholesale trading but frequency response services were dominant as they explained the ESO called for more capacity in frequency response forcing up prices but expect revenues to drop back as more assets come along and market becomes saturated. So need to be mindful that as more BESS's come online long run revenues will probably reduce to lower levels although they intend to be more dynamic in deciding whether to trade more wholesale than frequency response. Anyhow renewable levels only going in one direction so there services will remain in demand even if there are dips as more BESS's come online there will also be opportunities especially as the big offshore wind projects being commissioned in 24/25 onwards come on line driving system inertia down further.

[marktime1231] 28/9/2022 11:51

And has been well pointed out elsewhere, bond-proxy stocks paying a riskier 6-8% yield look suddenly less attractive when guaranteed UK 10-year gilts soar, they hit 4.5% this morning which is a level you can retire on. Even the FTSE100s dividend stalwart LGEN massively clobbered this morning pushing its "safe" yield to around 8.5%.

Everyone needs to calm down, the people in charge need to find something reassuring to say, and markets will rebound sharply like they always do.

[waterloo01] 28/9/2022 10:06

Trading below NAV.

[marktime1231] 27/9/2022 17:33

Actually no new news on NAV progress since the heads-up in May, some inconsistent figures in the report about pipeline commissioning schedule, a shameful delay unto the end of October for the Q2 dividend (b'stards), net income coverage of the dividend very much narrower because the revenue yoy was flattish while fees and costs are up >50% (AUM rising way ahead of income), mostly because of execution slippage which means new capacity has not been commissioned, blamed on supply chain and network connection problems. No news on further pipeline expansion, and the premium has just vanished so future funding is tight.

There is good news too of course. Commissioning starting to pick up, funds required to deliver the current pipeline are in hand, etc.

The impact of exchange rate moving sharply etc "under review" really unhelpful!

And the government starting to review whether, while still aiming for 2050 net-zero, there is a more secure and economic way to get there eg not just ploughing ahead with intermittent renewables, unless we match it with the security of long duration storage we might be better off with fossil fuels for longer, a disconnect in the UK energy strategy until now which Gresham House observes (using indirect words) has been inflating GRIDs prospects.

Let's not pretend we are happy the share price has slumped back to June levels, 155-160p probably where NAV has got to.

[cruelladeville] 27/9/2022 08:57

All looking good at GRID looking at the results and dividend RNSs thus morning.

[igoe104] 27/9/2022 07:17

Big jump in thd Nav and further jumps expected as they increase the pipeline.

Dividend payment the end of October.

[nerja] 23/9/2022 16:47

Making me twitchy, was dying to top up, but dangerous levels now for the markets and a real good chance they might sell it off tonight over the pond.

[notbitcoin] 23/9/2022 16:37

I think it just a lack news .it making people twitchy

[nerja] 23/9/2022 14:32

Very surprised if the yanks buy the market going into a weekend but you never know.

[nickrl] 23/9/2022 13:55

Well we've had a good run up and top slicing is sensible as far better opportunities opening up elsewhere in sectors that aren't subject to govt fiddling.

[tartshagger] 23/9/2022 13:46

The new energy minister is believed to want to stop all new wind and solar developments in favour of fracking shale gas and subsidising new previously uneconomic n sea oil and gas fields. Clearly heavily influenced by the fossil fuel lobby - which has penetrated to the heart of the new cabinet - he is on record as denying the reality of climate change and has stated repeatedly that onshore windfarms represent a medieval windmill technology that should be pulled down and replaced with fracking rigs. Obviously investors can see what's coming next and are bailing out

[cruelladeville] 23/9/2022 13:40

Profits are being taken to recycle elsewhere. Compulsive value emerging elsewhere presently.

[marktime1231] 23/9/2022 12:59

Well something has knocked the wind out of the sails here. Kind of pulls the plug on the idea of a fund raise at 175p if that was being schemed.

Studying the uk energy balance I was wondering whether GRID was enjoying a bumper time, we have been turning on gas peaker plant at key times recently. But the share price falling back nearly 20p from the peak over a week is rather more interesting.

Profit taking or ?

[nerja] 23/9/2022 11:52

I think it’s wait time critical the S&P holds 3710 if that fails the bottom could well be a lot lower, all imho

[notbitcoin] 23/9/2022 11:42

I think you could be right .could be good buying oputinuty soon

[notbitcoin] 23/9/2022 11:41

Are you saying moemement stock fall and start of a stock market crash

[nerja] 23/9/2022 09:43

Rolling over now, the solar wind funds are also starting to roll over, in the past when the market leaders start to roll it has led to the big fall , we shall see if it’s a signal once again