Greggs Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 06/11/2023 14:12

Resistance seems to be 2540p

[waldron] 06/11/2023 14:10

Analysts' Consensus

Mean consensus
BUY

Number of Analysts
11

Last Close Price
25.12GBP

Average target price
32.27GBP
Spread / Average Target
+28.46%

High Price Target
40.00GBP
Spread / Highest target
+59.24%

Low Price Target
25.00GBP
Spread / Lowest Target
-0.48%

[dudishes] 06/11/2023 12:59

G'day,

Thought I was on another loser at 2310?

Thankyou Greggs for 202pts!

cheers

[maximus57] 02/11/2023 15:34

Brilliant update, onwards and upwards. Way underpriced in my book

[dudishes] 26/10/2023 16:22

Wrong again!

[dudishes] 16/10/2023 14:33

Cheers Walders, caught - 20pts, but back in 2310.

Could do with bounces elsewhere!

[waldron] 13/10/2023 19:25

As you no doubt know divi just been paid



GOTTA WAIT 2024 FOR ANOTHER DIVI AND RESULTS

GOOD LUCK ALL



HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND

Chuckle and cheers

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm sausage rolls

[waldron] 13/10/2023 19:17

Across the business we continue to expect capital expenditure in 2023 to be around GBP200 million, supported by our strong balance sheet.

Extension of delivery service

At our interim results we announced we had initiated a trial with a second delivery aggregator. We have now concluded these trials to test the incremental benefit of making Greggs available for delivery on the Uber Eats platform, alongside our existing partner Just Eat. We have begun an accelerated roll out on the Uber Eats platform and expect to have around 500 shops live by the end of October 2023, with further expansion to come in 2024.

Outlook

As we had expected, the rate of cost inflation has eased as we annualise on the significant commodity-led increases experienced in 2022. At a time when customers are looking to make their money go further Greggs continues to offer exceptional value and grow market share. We have strong product and promotional plans for the fourth quarter and the extension of our delivery service will make Greggs accessible to more customers on more occasions.

Whilst acknowledging the uncertainty in the economy as a whole and the very strong comparative performance of the business in the fourth quarter of 2022, the Board expects the full year outcome to be in line with its previous expectations.

[waldron] 13/10/2023 19:13

Seems to be the right moment to buy as bumping along the support at 2310p

[essentialinvestor] 13/10/2023 13:04

Added a few.

[philanderer] 10/10/2023 23:21

Greggs has launched its first ever cafe inside of a Sainsbury’s store, as the partnership between the companies takes another step forward.

The cafe has opened in the supermarket’s Crystal Peaks, Sheffield store, creating 15 new jobs.

Customers will be able to buy Greggs favourites such as sandwiches, bakes and coffee, and can sit in or takeaway.

The cafe is the third Greggs shop to open in partnership with the grocer, following the launch of a shop where the businesses share petrol forecourt space earlier this year.

[essentialinvestor] 04/10/2023 09:15

Update could not have been much better, but about everything getting cheeper atm and GRG still retains a premium rating.

[philanderer] 04/10/2023 09:05

Berenberg raises Greggs price target to 3,550 (3,440) pence - 'buy'

[philanderer] 03/10/2023 09:15

WHAT DO ANALYSTS SAY?

‘Greggs remains a business with considerable ambition to grow its business, which we like, noting confidence in this statement for the 2024 opening programme,’ commented Shore Capital’s head of research Clive Black.

‘We believe the stock merits a premium equity rating, and that is what the market is affording the equity. Whilst there is much to admire about the business and its investment thesis, we feel a 2023 price to earnings ratio of 20.1 times, falling to 18.1 times in 2024, a ratio of 11.1 times 2023 EV/EBITDA (enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation), noting a negative medium-term free cash flow yield, with a dividend yield of 2.4%, represent full and fair value,’ added Black.

Greggs is ‘in a sweet spot in the retail market, backed by its growth initiatives and good cost management’, observed Russell Pointon from research group Edison.

‘The Q3 results reaffirm its resilience and share gains. Expanding its shop estate and investing in the supply chain further reinforce its market presence, albeit there may be some disappointment about the slightly lower than expected net new store growth for the full year

‘While some economic uncertainties persist, Greggs' consistent delivery of strong results, along with its reputation for customer satisfaction and affordability, bodes well for its future.’



sharesmagazine.co.uk

[deanmatlazin] 03/10/2023 06:55

The gas and electricity has gone down significantly from last year. Almost half the price. I expect the profit in next few months exceed market expectations

[philanderer] 02/10/2023 17:37

Trading update in the morning.

[essentialinvestor] 25/9/2023 13:27

Added a small amount, difficult market ATM.

[markatkinson] 30/8/2023 07:12

In this latest episode of the Desert Island Investor my very dear friend and fellow ‘pod-castaway’ Paul Kerin and I discuss Greggs ( GRG ), which is one of my core holdings -

[philanderer] 29/8/2023 13:58

SVM’s Lawson backs innovative Greggs


High street baker Greggs (GRG) continues to innovate and SVM’s Margaret Lawson says it could eventually expand outside the UK.

Lawson holds the Citywire Elite Company in her £89m SVM UK Growth fund, which she manages with Neil Veitch.

Lawson said that the group has evolved over the past decade into a mass-market operation, adding that ‘delivering a healthy return on capital employed is a key element of Greggs’ performance management’.

‘Greggs continues to innovate though it is careful to make gradual moves in re-formulating its best sellers to reduce sugar, fats, and salt, helping to achieve healthier recipes,’ she said.

‘New additions to the menu are carefully tested before launch. The Greggs App already has a good participation rate, helping to drive increased customer loyalty.’

The company has strong branding and a reputation for value and ‘there is potential for increasing its presence in London’.

‘In time Greggs might also consider expanding beyond the UK,’ said Lawson.

Overall, cost inflation now appears to be easing, but ‘the challenge for investors is that Greggs shares have been highly rated, anticipating growth’.

‘However, that premium is now more realistic, at a time when Greggs growth is accelerating,’ Lawson said.

The shares gained 1.3%, or 30p, to £24.34 on Friday.


citywire.com

[bouleversee] 21/8/2023 15:52

cfro -

You haven't missed the boat if the share price is on the way down, so long as you keep an eye on it.

My shares are in an ISA and at my age I'm more concerned with income than growth which
will ultimately be subject to IHT so I'm happy for them to concentrate on the UK market and increasing profitability and dividends. They have enough on their plate adjusting their business in line with the changing demands and staff availability due to Covid and WFH. Plenty of time to think about overseas expansion when they are providing investors (we are not all traders) with a yield more in line with inflation from a secure business rather than casino imho but maybe I'm a lone voice here.

[cfro] 21/8/2023 15:02

Well I see this very differently. Let GRG plough their own furrow which they
are exceptionally good at.


I don't disagree with that at all but do you not think that they will need to do some kind of serious International expansion at some point? I do.

You cite the examples of Tesco etc, yes to crack the international market is not easy. McDonalds have, Subway have, starbucks have, Domino's have, KFC have, Burger King have etc etc..

If Greggs really want to become a major player and serious competitor then it will have to do it.

[essentialinvestor] 21/8/2023 12:53

Well I see this very differently. Let GRG plough their own furrow which they
are exceptionally good at.

Retailer tie ups, like Iceland, provide another income stream. How many
successful companies have lost money expanding out of their home market
and destroyed value in the process.

Tesco tried to crack the US with Fresh and Easy and found it was anything but easy,
racking up huge losses exiting that business.

In non food, Kingfisher tried to replicate their hugely successful Screwfix formula
in Germany, even failure with a small operation in the German market cost the
business the best part of £50 million on the exit - a few years later they are
now attempting the same in France.

[cfro] 21/8/2023 12:45

On International expansion in fact looking through the annual reports and statements i cant see anything on their plans for this whatsoever.

Doesn't appear they have a plan then which is a shame and a real missed opportunity. They will never compete with the big boys (McDonalds, Subway etc) unless or until they really do put in place a proper plan Imo..

[cfro] 21/8/2023 08:22

Hello Adam,

Your post above struck a chord with me. I, like you, am wondering if i have missed the boat here or whether there is still a great long-term opportunity available.

I've been a big fan for years of their sausage rolls and lunch-time deals but never did i ever consider it as a company to buy for some strange reason. It just passed me by.

So, i have been looking at the company more recently a bit more seriously. Where is future growth going to come from?
I think the UK has to reach saturation at some point but in the mean-time i reckon they are being quite clever about how they are continuing to expand in the UK. They seem to be doing this by opening up in very different places like train stations and business parks etc and closing down older lesser-performing stores. That should improve the quality of its portfolio of stores.

I think it can keep on doing this for while.

McDonalds is clearly the market leader in fast food. Is Greggs a credible and serious competitor to them? I think maybe they could be..

It will need drive-throughs and thats something Greggs are doing. Then they really will compete imo.

At some point however international expansion will become the priority. If they get that right then maybe thats when growth will really take-off.

Just my thoughts fwiw.

[essentialinvestor] 20/8/2023 18:08

Adam, if expansion slows what happens? - GRG becomes a cash generation machine -
barring something left field.


In that eventuality they either retire huge amounts of equity through buy backs
and cancellation of shares and/or paying fat special dividends on an increasingly regular basis.

If equity volatility continues a nice longer term opportunity may well present itself.