Greggs Share Discussion Threads

[cfro] 21/8/2023 13:45

On International expansion in fact looking through the annual reports and statements i cant see anything on their plans for this whatsoever.

Doesn't appear they have a plan then which is a shame and a real missed opportunity. They will never compete with the big boys (McDonalds, Subway etc) unless or until they really do put in place a proper plan Imo..

[cfro] 21/8/2023 09:22

Hello Adam,

Your post above struck a chord with me. I, like you, am wondering if i have missed the boat here or whether there is still a great long-term opportunity available.

I've been a big fan for years of their sausage rolls and lunch-time deals but never did i ever consider it as a company to buy for some strange reason. It just passed me by.

So, i have been looking at the company more recently a bit more seriously. Where is future growth going to come from?
I think the UK has to reach saturation at some point but in the mean-time i reckon they are being quite clever about how they are continuing to expand in the UK. They seem to be doing this by opening up in very different places like train stations and business parks etc and closing down older lesser-performing stores. That should improve the quality of its portfolio of stores.

I think it can keep on doing this for while.

McDonalds is clearly the market leader in fast food. Is Greggs a credible and serious competitor to them? I think maybe they could be..

It will need drive-throughs and thats something Greggs are doing. Then they really will compete imo.

At some point however international expansion will become the priority. If they get that right then maybe thats when growth will really take-off.

Just my thoughts fwiw.

[essentialinvestor] 20/8/2023 19:08

Adam, if expansion slows what happens? - GRG becomes a cash generation machine -
barring something left field.


In that eventuality they either retire huge amounts of equity through buy backs
and cancellation of shares and/or paying fat special dividends on an increasingly regular basis.

If equity volatility continues a nice longer term opportunity may well present itself.

[toffeeman] 20/8/2023 19:00

They have sites in non-retail locations - like business parks for serving the people who work/buy supplies there - lots of white van folk. Lots of opportunity

[adamb1978] 20/8/2023 09:18

Hello

I've looked at GRG before and managed to miss what has been a great investment. Generates high ROCE too, which is always a good starting point. Questioning though what scope it has to grow more in the UK *in terms of footprint*, leaving them to either grow revenue per customer or grow internationally...both of which are harder than just opening more shops.

From data points I found:

- Greggs has 2,300 outlets. There's 438 towns with >20k people in the UK and c.80 cities (I assume towns much smaller than 20k are often too small for a Greggs). Obviously it will have multiple outlets in cities, and from what I read, in the 10 cities where it has the most locations it has 238 in total. That seems a high number of outlets already or that most decent sized places are covered

- It has 800 more locations than MacDonalds in the UK and 1000 more locations than Starbucks...and those two seem everywhere.

I see GRG has opened a couple places in Belgium, but am I missing anything about the number of shops it has in the UK? I can't see that it much more scope to open many more.
Thanks

Adam

[craftyale] 08/8/2023 17:16

Nice to see a few people buying. I bought on the day of results after the 10% drop. I don't mind waiting a week or a couple of months to see this rise again. Interestingly every time I walk by a Greggs there is always a long queue. It makes me smile.

[panache1] 08/8/2023 13:46

I'm in. 2576

[essentialinvestor] 07/8/2023 15:46

Bought a few on Friday following the post results drop.

Agree the share price had got a little ahead of itself, results read well.
Not an easy backdrop over the last few years and GRG have continued to deliver - pun intended.

[bouleversee] 01/8/2023 17:06

I have given up trying to understand the stock market I thought the share price would rise today, not drop like a stone.

[craftyale] 01/8/2023 10:40

The share price may not agree.

[scepticalinvestor] 01/8/2023 07:47

Impressive

[philanderer] 28/7/2023 14:24

Greggs is set to launch standalone cafés in Sainsbury’s stores as it looks to expand its existing retail partnerships.

[geraldus] 21/7/2023 08:26

Grain prices going back up.More price rises here or trim another mill off of a steak bake.

[cumnor] 06/7/2023 11:04

Again, no proper dividend here, despite doing well. share price needs to halve to make it an investable proposition, esp given declining UK growth prospects.

[philanderer] 10/6/2023 00:24

Greggs ‘on track’ with plan to open 150 new shops

[bouleversee] 17/5/2023 14:42

Tempus in The Times is recommending Greggs as a buy. Why? "A clear path to profit growth". Hope they are right.

[philanderer] 17/5/2023 10:11

Liberum: Greggs shares ‘up with events’
Liberum has downgraded Greggs (GRG) after a strong run in the high street baker’s shares.

Analyst Wayne Brown lowered his recommendation from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’ but retained a £28 target price on the high-street baker, which slid 3% to £27.56 on Tuesday.

The group reported strong trading in the first 19 weeks of the year, with like-for-like sales up 17%, which Brown said ‘reflects the Covid-19 impacted comparative and price rises to help offset inflation’.

‘Like-for-likes should start to normalise as we move through the year,’ he said. ‘We are encouraged that the menu expansion continues to drive sales … and remains a huge opportunity.’

However, Brown said ‘the shares have been strong’, rising around 30% in the past six months.

‘This is wholly deserved but means Greggs is now trading on an international quick service restaurant multiple and suggests to us that the shares are up with events and upgrades are required to drive the shares higher in our humble opinion,’ he said.

‘The move to “hold” is purely on valuation grounds as this is a very high-quality company.’


citywire.com

[philanderer] 16/5/2023 09:53

Liberum cuts Greggs to 'hold' ('buy') - target 2,800 pence

[philanderer] 15/5/2023 14:34

Trading update tomorrow.

[livewireplus] 03/5/2023 21:24

Given present inflation, then that may also be the price of 4 vegan sausage rolls in a couple of years' time ....

[philanderer] 03/5/2023 09:48

Berenberg raises Greggs price target to 3,200 (3,000) pence - 'buy'

[philanderer] 08/3/2023 09:41

Jefferies raises Greggs price target to 3,450 (3,050) pence - 'buy'

[volsung] 07/3/2023 11:52

Yes I was very surprised they were there Don. But it goes to show some luxury people like the Greggs