Greggs Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 29/7/2020 12:41

Phil, would agree with the quality definitely.

The issue is valuation, it's selling on well over 30x 2021 FY earnings estimates-
and those estimates assume no further lockdown (at least that's how I read it).

Just 2 years ago the GRG share price was under £11 a share, in August 2018.

It got down to approx £10.25 a share that month, 2 years ago.


Some are looking at the parabolic spike over £20 and thinking...it's a bargain.

But we are in a completely different environment now.

[soho2] 29/7/2020 12:33

That Andrew Wade must be having a laugh...recommendation of a price target of £23.75 ????

[philanderer] 29/7/2020 12:28

counterpartymw , I would say if you've just got £20,000 to invest you should not be investing in individual stocks but a unit or investment trust. I've been investing for well over forty years and have done quite well thanks.

But each to his own of course. Luck with yours.


Jefferies sees past Greggs’ first half loss

Greggs (GRG) has been heavily impacted by the closure of its stores during the lockdown but Jefferies says the high street baker is still a ‘high quality asset’.

Analyst Andrew Wade retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of £23.75 on the stock, which tumbled 90p or 6% to £13.69 after the group swung to a half-year loss of £65m versus a £37m profit in 2019.

‘Although consensus full-year 2020 estimates look likely to be trimmed as social distancing continues to weigh, the Greggs opportunity was never about what happened this year,’ Wade said.

‘We continue to see the business as a high-quality asset with a clear long-term growth agenda, and retain our positive stance.’

[counterpartymw] 29/7/2020 11:45

Yeah i'm afraid there has been some nonsense posts here, firstly phil advocating 2% of your wealth per investment? So a new investor with £20k should seriously invest just £400 in 50 different companies, cross fingers and hope for the best? Sounds like you have no idea how to value a business and shouldn't be investing at all.

Secondly bergster declaring "800p, no doubt", with the proof of this found in basic market research and visiting their shops? I think we all know share prices are based on buy and sell order imbalances (collective human behavior, which is unpredictable). So please don't say nonsense like this, just be honest and say "I believe it will soon be priced at £8 per share, valuing the company at X. But that is just a guess, as I of course have no idea what other investors/traders/algorithms will do" :)

[essentialinvestor] 29/7/2020 11:13

So bergster, you estimated £6 a share in mid May.

But were 'topping up' on 10 July when the share price was over £15,
on July 10 GRG was trading around £15.50 approx.

[essentialinvestor] 29/7/2020 11:07

bergster56 - 10 Jul 2020 - 08:18:17 - 4173 of 4240 Greggs with Charts & News - GRG
I’ve been in several different Greggs in the Midlands - all very busy. The staff member I spoke to said things had been “crazy”

People were willing to queue around the corner

Once people realise the queues are longer only because of social distancing and not longer waiting times things will snowball even further

Topping up further

Topping up


bergster56 - 12 May 2020 - 21:58:10 - 4101 of 4241 Greggs with Charts & News - GRG
600p is where we are going before recovery

[philanderer] 29/7/2020 08:23

bergster, good advice .

Spread the risk and have a well diversified portfolio. No more than 2% per holding. Then cross your fingers and hope for the best.

The world's changed for good.

Peel Hunt retains 'sell' tp cut from 1500p to 1200p

[bergster56] 29/7/2020 07:35

If you have any experience of investing you'll know the likely future share price scenario with this It'll lose1-2% a day interspersed with odd green days Next threshold to cross will be 1000p. You can see so many factors stacked against it now Obesity Lower footfallLower salesHighly priced

[bergster56] 29/7/2020 07:32

Sub 800p no doubt Basic market research and visiting Greggs stores will tell you this

[slinkyj] 29/7/2020 05:45

Still mega ordinary buys still bodes well for confidence.

[philanderer] 28/7/2020 23:26

Slinkyj , they're delayed reporting 'o' trades from ealier in the day.


Daily Mail:

Julie Palmer, a partner at Begbies Traynor, said: 'The success of Greggs has been the envy of the high street in recent years; however, even the bakery chain hasn't been immune to the impact of Covid-19, which has forced its stores to close and eaten away at its top line.

'The company has now started reopening stores but, with new social distancing measures having to be implemented and a lack of footfall in town centres, the second half of the year will be an uphill battle.'

Including the £150million Covid Corporate Financing Facility it received left it with net debt of £26million, which, according to Adam Vettese at multi-asset investment platform eToro, is 'relatively low for a business its size'.

He added: 'Greggs has made a strong recovery so far and it seems the only thing that will derail it is a second lockdown.'

[slinkyj] 28/7/2020 19:33

After hours buys are huge! Looks extremely promising

[bouleversee] 28/7/2020 18:38

I very much doubt that Greggs will be responsible for this. More likely sugary things and booze and lack of exercise.

[onjohn] 28/7/2020 18:07

In 2019, the NHS recorded 876,000 obesity-related diagnoses. That number is expected to rise by the end of 2020

[essentialinvestor] 28/7/2020 17:19

IC say Sell FWIW. Investec estimate £78 million of pre tax losses for this year,
£62 million on pre tax profit for FY 2021.

If they make those Investec estimates for FY 2021, that a multiple of 27X approx.

[slinkyj] 28/7/2020 15:20

Gap up in the AM on the cards. Still bullish on this recovery.

[sparsam] 28/7/2020 14:54

Don't miss the boat. Today's the day to buy

[bouleversee] 28/7/2020 14:54

I didn't, but it's still annoying as is the drop at WH Smith. I was at one point making huge gains with both. Doesn't always pay to let your winners run and wide diversification doesn't help much in a general calamity which drops out of the sky via China or wherever. I do have some of the lucky survivors but also several who are quite likely to go to the wall. Nobody can know what is going to happen from here on.

[sparsam] 28/7/2020 14:52

Yehhhh boy

[essentialinvestor] 28/7/2020 14:48

sparsam, luck with that. As you are a man of few words on ADVFN,
you clearly dont just post any old sh1t.

[sparsam] 28/7/2020 14:44

Loaded up and ready for the skirtlift up. Today's news will soon be forgotten about as people start to focus on the recovery from here. Next results will be a different story again. This is like March take 2 but stronger as we will be open like some of you have said. No brainier for me. Strong buy imho Hope that helps

[essentialinvestor] 28/7/2020 14:07

I'm not sure what people were expecting, the shops were shut for the
majority of Q2 and their net cash was burned through, as was clear
from previous statements.

Bemused if anyone expected something different.

[bouleversee] 28/7/2020 13:54

I could do with a few as well, Phil, after reading those results and seeing the effect on the share price I'm talking about drinks, of course

Perhaps Greggs will come up with some healthy, weight reducing recipes to endear themselves to Boris & Co. and latch on to the required healthy lifestyle trend.

Now sitting on a thundering loss in my ISA and over £600 in Greggs dividend not coming my way this tax year(along with countless other cancellations) I can't say I feel tempted to add, having done that with Carillion and others when they were down, only to compound the loss. Absolutely no chance of recovering losses in my lifetime but what the heck.