Greggs Share Discussion Threads

[gozzie2] 26/5/2020 13:34

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/11711346/greggs-reopen-800-branches-mid-june/

[paulof2] 26/5/2020 13:33

Opening 800 stores from mid June

From the trusty source of the Sun! Still it does bode well

[bgosby] 21/5/2020 17:44

I'm new on here. Anyone looked at buying Greggs shares as the two week reopening of some shop trial is finished soon and ceo May look to open again.

[3rd eye] 20/5/2020 08:01

GRG greggs chart looking very bullish as pointed out this weekend. On a winning streak
and if share price gets to 1900p historical resistance and gets through it, the share price should easily move through the gap to 2000p. And then we would be talking about getting through next resistance level at 2200p. This looks one of the better charts around. Very solid.



Berenberg note details...


Lower cost forecasts: One bright spot is that costs during closure are proving lower than we expected, with virtually all operators (of those that have released public statements on the matter) pointing to rates of monthly cash-burn below our initial expectations. We have reduced cost estimates to reflect this. The UK leisure sector will have also breathed a collective sigh of relief at the Chancellor's announcement that the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (the furlough scheme) will be extended to the end of October, removing the risk of a support "cliff edge" in June.

• Key conclusions: Fundamentally, we do not believe an extra month of lost revenue meaningfully changes the value of these businesses, particularly now that most have liquidity to see them through the coming months. Nonetheless, the trading outlook for the next 12 months (at least) is more uncertain than at any time in most of these companies' histories. As a result, our preference is for companies with the best balance sheets, the best brands and the best momentum prior to the pandemic. In our view, they will have opportunities to grow market share even faster over time, as they pick up the pieces from failed competition while the going remains tough.

• Ratings changes: Given our investment preferences, we have upgraded Greggs to Buy. It is a leading brand in the food-to-go sector with a strong balance sheet and it had generated very strong lfl growth for 18 months prior to the pandemic.

[bouleversee] 19/5/2020 14:46

Tempus in The Times today says "hold". I think I'll stick. With so many dividends cancelled, I need to hang on to cash.

[philanderer] 19/5/2020 14:15

Berenberg note details...


Lower cost forecasts: One bright spot is that costs during closure are proving lower than we expected, with virtually all operators (of those that have released public statements on the matter) pointing to rates of monthly cash-burn below our initial expectations. We have reduced cost estimates to reflect this. The UK leisure sector will have also breathed a collective sigh of relief at the Chancellor's announcement that the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (the furlough scheme) will be extended to the end of October, removing the risk of a support "cliff edge" in June.

• Key conclusions: Fundamentally, we do not believe an extra month of lost revenue meaningfully changes the value of these businesses, particularly now that most have liquidity to see them through the coming months. Nonetheless, the trading outlook for the next 12 months (at least) is more uncertain than at any time in most of these companies' histories. As a result, our preference is for companies with the best balance sheets, the best brands and the best momentum prior to the pandemic. In our view, they will have opportunities to grow market share even faster over time, as they pick up the pieces from failed competition while the going remains tough.

• Ratings changes: Given our investment preferences, we have upgraded Greggs to Buy. It is a leading brand in the food-to-go sector with a strong balance sheet and it had generated very strong lfl growth for 18 months prior to the pandemic.

[ariane] 19/5/2020 10:15

Berenberg Buy up from 1,700.00 to 1,860.00 Upgrades

[essentialinvestor] 18/5/2020 16:44

Closed Thursday's small buy.

[paulof2] 14/5/2020 18:20

Indeed it does

[essentialinvestor] 14/5/2020 11:20

Had a small amount.

[essentialinvestor] 13/5/2020 17:41

Another 10% downside would be around the March plunge lows.

[gozzie2] 13/5/2020 17:38

Im the same paul

[paulof2] 13/5/2020 17:23

I really do believe in Greggs and think what management have demonstrated over the past few years puts them on a good footing over the long run however can’t help but think this has a bit further to drop yet until it represents some value.

Another 10% and could be worth it for the long term imo.

Gl those already in

[alphabeta4] 13/5/2020 14:05

Slightly out of date but think has detail and a link to another article with details not previously posted.

[essentialinvestor] 13/5/2020 13:53

The bigger headwind is unemployment.

The flip side is a lot of sector capacity gets taken out,
stronger operators get stronger etc.

[spacecake] 13/5/2020 08:35

Just reading about twitter saying staff can work from home forever if they wish, how many digital savvy uk companies will follow that kind of lead, staff currently working from home in call centres/ offices that don't need to leave the home and pass the shops to get to the dreaded desk.

Any new model for 'food on the go' with less people on the go.

[bergster56] 12/5/2020 21:58

Way overpriced at present given the situation

[bergster56] 12/5/2020 21:58

600p is where we are going before recovery

[bergster56] 12/5/2020 21:57

Bet against them all day long for at least the next 18 months

[essentialinvestor] 12/5/2020 17:43

I'm not bearish on GRG longer term, just for clarity.
It's a fantastic company as mentioned many times.

Long term investors dont tend to worry about monthly price movements,
leave that to those trading.

[darrin1471] 12/5/2020 17:22

Greggs never needed to close as most of the stores are take away food. They closed because most of their stores are in locations where there was significantly reduced demand.
Are Greggs better off now without having to pay furloughed staff or with all the shops open and with takings down 50%?
My local Greggs is on a local high street. Demand for lunchtime sandwiches and warm pastries would have been significantly down but Greggs could have made up those sales on bread, cold pastry and cakes. Butcher, greengrocer, hardware store and minimarts have queues most of the day and sales have more than doubled for all of them.
Local retail trading association announced today they are planning to reopen June 1st on reduced hours of 10 to 4

[skeptic1] 12/5/2020 16:32

This thread is absurd now. No incentive to open shops because of furlough?! Do you really think they will just go ‘ah, no worries until October’? What about maintaining their market share? What about getting their supply chain back up and running? The Greggs ‘manufacturers’ (I.e factory workers) who have been encouraged to get back to work are just going to what...manufacture things to fill the time?

Honestly, the shops will be open the minute it is feasible. Reasonable bear cases welcome but not fantasy land. They were going to reopen two weeks ago before the slight backlash - you think now Starbucks, costa eat al are coming back that Greggs will be far behind? Come on now...