21 has been a great price to accumulate. Yes I went to Gregg's yesterday, quite happy to observe, look around and smile. The pasty was straight out of the oven. I tend to do well after others have panicked. |
A funny anecdote...
Anthony Hopkins recently won an oscar.
He was asked.. how are you going to celebrate?
"I'm going to my local Greggs for a steak slice" |
Much appreciated sf, good weekend. |
 i hold bbox but will try not to let that influence a critical appraisal...for what my tea-leaf readings are worth.
very long term chart says we are back where we were in 2017. something extraordinary happened around 2020 associated with panic, excitement and realisation. try as i might i can't say there has been a double or triple bottom, but there seems some support at this price 125-135p long term. there was a death cross in November of 60/200 ma's and share price remains below the 200ma (151p) which is somewhat above its closing price today of 142p. there is also a line of resistance at 142p going back a couple of years. so technically not going anywhere soon. i'd expect a small pullback and perhaps get in cheaper in the next couple of months, but not be too scared that the bottom will fall out of its world. for this chart i'd want some regular dividends to be coming in, because otherwise i am losing money with inflation. the chart for sgro looks very similar over the last 2 years or so.
however many shares in the same sector are not showing the same support with more significant-looking death crosses and no support. so knowing that, if i want to be in this sector, this is one of the stronger companies to be in. but boring. perhaps i need a bit of boring in my portfolio.
MSLH interestingly shows a similar chart as bbox and sgro over the last 2-3 years or so, i hadn't noticed. the death cross with the same ma's is more recent though and a sharper share price decline beneath this, so i'd expect some more short term weakness from today's share price of 243p. there is support not far away around 230p and strong support at 200p. interestingly, if it did fall to 200p, it looks like it would make an extraordinarily long head and shoulders pattern going back to 2014.quite whether that is valid over such a long period is questionable. that would either be a continuation pattern of the trend pre 2014, or a very long term top of that trend. if the TA is true, there might be marked price action around the 200p range. don't ask me which way. knowing it might benefit from governmental encouragement to build, on balance more probably going to go up. the rate of price increase prior to 2014 was about 120p over 18 months. all hail charting theory if that comes true again by autumn 2026 with an share price then of 320p.
time for a yorkshire tea... |
OK, appreciate you taking the time to explain, thank you.
I have this on a watchlist, just for transparency.
If you have any TA insight on BBOX, I would be very interested to hear, or on MSLH - which I'm looking at as a potential recovery play. If not, no problem. |
chart trends are there to be broken. at least with the price and trends, as a PI i am not at a disadvantage to the pro's, a price is a price is a price. they give me a better idea of when to buy and when to get out.
they also give me a better idea of the market's psychology. and i can take advantage of that.
the psychology of this is "i've done really well with this, but it's time to get out. i'm not sure when the price will stop falling".
nothing wrong with the company or those that eat there. it is just it was valued too highly.
a man in a white van will put up with his wife making sarnies for a few months, but he will soon be back on the pies. i am from wigan. so i think i am right with that at least. |
The premium rating has largely left the current share price
GRG for years traded around 14/15 X earnings (from memory).
ZIRP, plus rapid earnings growth fuelled multiple expansion.
At their current size, growth from here on in is likely to be modest.
You still get a prestine balance sheet and a very strong cash generator.
My main (potential) concern is will margins come under pressure with a weaker consumer backdrop. |
FWIW :- HSBC raises Greggs to 'buy' - price target 2,500 pence |
*..personally I prefer charts..
Or do you just make it up as you go along, eh. |
my white van man index indicator says sell
and it makes more sense than dominic cummings saying he drove to barnard castle to reassure his wife that his eyesight was ok enough to drive back down to london. |
Yeah let's all buy greggs shares because they have white vans outside their shops BWAHAHAHA You really couldn't mage it up |
Too late... ive eaten four of them earlier. |
Is this the reason for the fall today ? |
Yeah essentialinvestor when Greggs don't sell enough sausage rolls interest rates go up and GDP tanks You really couldn't make up this shyte |
BC
I suggest you plot the share price of Greggs againt Halma - you find in of interest. |
Essentialinvestor is so thick he thinks greggs is the bellweather for the uk equity market You really couldn't mage this shyte up |
Phil, not used to seeing you so cautious.. |
At what point do you want me to say "I TOLD YOU SO" |
Out for now.
The only UK earners I'm holding now are TSCO, SBRY and MKS. |
If Greggs trades down to £16, heaven knows what the rest of the UK equity market would look like. |
Will be fine when pays 5% divi-£16 at current payout. Market given up on these tiresome 'growth' stocks that give shareholders zilch and mgmt everything. |
PhilBut he kept Brown-Foreman, personally I don't buy the weight loss theory / excuse for offloading DGE, or that it will massively impact GRG. Yes folks are getting more health conscious but GRG will adapt their offerings accordingly. IMO they've overstretched themselves and have operational issoues, shops I've passed on my travels have folks queuing up outside the shop....whereby a lot must just get fed up of waiting to be served.This is a quality business, I don't hold but I used to years ago. |
Phil, yup. I think one of the 'issues' here
was the rating. Down to 17.5 X now approx.
Some are saying that within a decade 50% of overweight and obese individuals will be on these newer weight loss medications.
That could be a country mile out, however further advancement to weight loss medication will happen. |
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