Greggs Share Discussion Threads

[philanderer] 17/5/2019 10:09

Looking like 2000p won't hold at the moment.

[philanderer] 17/5/2019 10:00

updated:

17th may Berenberg hold tp 1780p up from 1600p
15th may UBS neutral tp 1880p
14th may Peel Hunt hold tp 2000p
14th may ShoreCap hold -

[philanderer] 15/5/2019 12:27

15th may UBS 'neutral' tp 1880p up from 1725p

[philanderer] 14/5/2019 23:22

Greggs' vegan sausage rolls break records: Baker says booming demand for pastry has driven a 15.1% sales rise

[countless] 14/5/2019 22:51

An interesting read


Shares in baked goods and FTSE 250 constituent Greggs (LSE: GRG) were in fine fettle this morning following news the excellent start to its financial year has continued.
Before getting into whether Foolish investors may wish to consider buying or selling the shares at the current time, let’s take a closer look at those all-important numbers from today’s update.
“Materially higher” profits
Thanks to more people visiting its shops, total sales have “continued to grow very strongly,” increasing a little over 15% in the first 19 weeks of the year.
Compare that to the 4.7% achieved over the same period in 2018 and you get some idea of just how well the “leading bakery food-on-the-go retailer” has been doing lately.
Like-for-like sales from its 1,700 company-managed units rose 11.1% from 1% last year. That’s also more than the 9.6% growth from the first seven weeks of 2019 reported back in early-March.
It seems people simply can’t get enough of those much-hyped vegan-friendly sausage rolls. But it gets better.
Those already holding the stock will also no doubt be cheering the company’s comments with regard to its outlook for the rest of 2019. Despite facing increasingly tough comparatives from last year, management now believes Greggs will achieve “materially higher sales” than previously expected.
While there will be some ongoing investment, underlying profits (before exceptional costs) will now be “materially higher” too.
As an investor, it doesn’t get much better than that. No surprise then that Greggs shares are now 13% higher as I type.
But will it last?
I don’t mind admitting that, back in January, I questioned whether it might be time to take some profit on Greggs. After all, the shares had already done extremely well following my initial buy call back in May last year.
Thanks to recent positive trading and a resurgence in general market sentiment over the first five months of 2019, however, the stock just refuses to acknowledge gravity.
Assuming its new summer menu is positively received and plans to continue growing the number of units in travel and workplace catchments are realised (it opened 38 news shops in the trading period, 10 of which were franchises in transport locations), it’s certainly possible that they could move even higher.
So, has my view now changed? I really don’t think it has. While I consider Greggs to be a fine business (returns on capital employed have been in the mid-20s for a number of years now) and a rare exception to the vast majority of firms that have a presence on the average high street, I can’t get away from the fact that the shares have now gone from expensive to seriously expensive.
Before today, analysts were forecasting earnings per share growth of 4.2% in the current financial year. That gave Greggs a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) of 23 — a valuation you might expect from either a hyper-reliable consumer goods company, or a promising technology business. Last time I checked, Greggs was neither. Rather tellingly, its five-year average P/E is 17.
Although profits are now expected to be higher, this is arguably already priced in following today’s reaction. In my experience, high expectations tend to be positively correlated with a higher risk of disappointment.
If the novelty of its vegan sausage rolls (particularly among self-identifying carnivores) begins to dissipate, I’m wondering if those buying in at today’s record share price may regret their purchases.

[deadly] 14/5/2019 21:22

set of results?? Didn't see any; just a trading update.

[momentum1] 14/5/2019 20:52

Clean break into all time highs. Fully expect this to tag 2300+ over the coming days. A great set of results.

[philanderer] 14/5/2019 18:38

Greggs launches more vegan products after sausage roll success

[philanderer] 14/5/2019 13:14

updated:

14th may Peel Hunt hold tp 2000p up from 1800p
14th may ShoreCap hold -

[this_time_its_different] 14/5/2019 12:15

I want to see blackrock close their short

[philanderer] 14/5/2019 11:00

Holding up well above 2000p so far. No sign of profit takers yet.

[grupo] 14/5/2019 09:17

Newcastle-based Greggs has reported a total sales increase of 15 per cent in the first 19 weeks of 2019.
Jane Imrie

Published by Correspondent
Jane Imrie
on
14 May 2019

Vegan recipe for success as Greggs sees sales uplift

Newcastle-based national bakery chain Greggs has reported a total sales increase of 15 per cent in the first 19 weeks of 2019.

The company reported that like-for-like sales in company-managed shops grew by 11.1 per cent in the 19 week period.

Greggs’ performance was primarily bolstered by the success of the brand’s vegan-friendly sausage roll, which gained huge publicity after its launch in January and was rolled out nationally after “demand outstripped supply” in participating stores.

It has also invested in having a presence in food-on-the-go locations, travel hubs and workplace areas.

Following the results, Greggs have indicated that forecasted sales for 2019 will be “materially higher” than the company was initially expecting.

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[philanderer] 14/5/2019 09:13

Forgot all about the update - job very well done.


Peel Hunt 'hold' tp 1800p up from 1500p

[tradejunkie2] 14/5/2019 09:11

Shoved a veggi sausage roll up my bum was real good.

[this_time_its_different] 14/5/2019 08:14

Are blackrock going to close their short or are they not tired of losing money.

[this_time_its_different] 14/5/2019 08:09

"We're in the money".....singing along with sainsbury CEO

[philanderer] 09/5/2019 23:39

'Greggs launches summer menu including new wraps, pasta salads and drinks'

Three items have been axed to make way for the new products

[philanderer] 08/5/2019 16:50

:-)

EG Group launches pop-up Greggs in North Wales

[philanderer] 07/5/2019 10:21

Strong start on a down market day.

[philanderer] 29/4/2019 22:19

Protesters wearing pig masks storm a Greggs bakery in protest at sales of meat products … despite the success of their vegan sausage rolls

[philanderer] 29/4/2019 17:39

A few sellers about today.