Graphene Nano Share Discussion Threads

[leedskier] 29/9/2015 16:50

That will be Rob selling half his holding to hedge his position ahead of the RNS.

[leedskier] 29/9/2015 16:49

PMR
PANMURE GORDON & CO. PLC ORD 4P
92.50 -31.50 -25.40%

Corporate finance and related income has however reduced by 35% to £7.5m (2014: £11.5m). Whilst the number of corporate transactions executed is similar to that of the same period in 2014 their size and resulting revenue have been lower and the market for such transactions was particularly disrupted by the uncertainty in the run-up to the UK general election and then the market dislocation that followed.

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I agree with isis

[1sillydoris] 29/9/2015 16:43

I hear the sound of distant drums'.
at least someone has if those sells are anything to go by

[pennysharemillionaire2] 29/9/2015 15:06

Leedskier, you were right, no leaky drums this afternoon.

[leedskier] 29/9/2015 13:02

The gross profits started in Q4/2014. I suspect that the number of Aim company CEOs making net profits would fit on a double decker bus.

You should refocus on the FTSE250.

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even the company's brokers made a net loss in H1.

[wskill] 29/9/2015 12:44

With the improvements of the last year I can see GRPH is now a much different company since its first listing with only the bio fuel side running.
It may take a few more years but I can see this company being as big as PURE the directors previous start up ,we have moved forward in leaps and bounds and so far the directors have done an excellent job,and not as is usual on AIM run the company for their own benefit by issuing share options like confetti I fully expect them to continue with this ethos as they have done in the past.
So all in all I am pleased with GRPHs performance thus far and have no complaints.

[1sillydoris] 29/9/2015 12:34

I'm not sure anyone should recommend to buy , or sell shares, I just started looking at shares recently and this one took my interest , do you actualy own any of these shares Leedskier or are you waiting for an entry price ?

[leedskier] 29/9/2015 12:28

For the avoidance of doubt, I am not recommending anyone buys until the RNS is posted and the contents carefully digested.

[leedskier] 29/9/2015 12:08

As you created your user name on 25 Aug 2015, I assume you previously used another. I say that because DH has not posted here since 24 August 2015, the day before you created your ID.

[1sillydoris] 29/9/2015 11:53

SP action not giving me much confidence, these awaited trading results will not I fear bring much good news.

Where's Dynamohum , he seemed to call this right , even though his last post mentioned a sub 10p valuation.
I'll need some good real' news to invest

[wskill] 29/9/2015 11:25

Yes I agree Leeds the company runs a very tight ship it has never leaked in the past.

[leedskier] 29/9/2015 10:32

No it will be as tight as a drum.

[pennysharemillionaire2] 29/9/2015 10:15

5k trades and they drop it 3% (1 buy and 1 sell of equal volume).

Will we get a leak this afternoon. Watching for signs.

[leedskier] 29/9/2015 09:55

Talking of unloved ...

GRPH's brokers/nomad, PMR, posted its half year results today.



We live in volatile times.

[leedskier] 29/9/2015 08:40

I have often wondered about the wisdom of these employed share bashers posting on BB after drinking heavily.



That one last appeared here under the nickname of Pat Mustard UK.

[wskill] 29/9/2015 00:34

Leeds it would not be hard to reduce costs the £6m spent on R&D last year should be reduced this year with the roll out of new products, for a company with a market cap less than £18m this is a huge amount triple what AGM spends and it has a market cap of multiples of GRPHs.

The pricing anomaly on the palm oil waste product last year affected the end result with this new feedstock being used there is no such problem we have been told.

[leedskier] 28/9/2015 22:03

pennysharemillionaire2

Some seem to find the business model complex. It isn't it is quite straight forward.

Malaysia grows and exports a lot of palm oil.

Being on the equator, it grows 12 months of the year.

The refining/processing of palm oil creates a lot of waste.

GRPH creates synthetic high quality biodiesel from that waste, which it sells into the local market and into Europe.

Some £43 millions worth last year,

Secondly, the Company makes quite a lot of Graphene too. It mixes the graphene with other products made from palm oil waste to create high quality drilling fluids and drilling lubricants. It also makes other oil field services products incorporating graphene. The drilling fluids and other oil field services products are tested in deep water drilling and onshore drilling, marketed and sold by its joint venture partner, Scomi Energy Services, a Malaysian main market listed company, and part of the separately listed Scomi Group. This is a Global Company.

The roll out of these sophisticated products began last year, producing a revenue of some £5 million. The melt down in the price of oil has impacted on the oil field services sector, but Scomi seems to keep finding new orders and has a healthy order book in Asia and the Middle East, albeit not as large as it would have been had the price of oil remained at $100.

Another factor in the mix is that Malaysia is classified as an emerging market and its currency has fallen dramatically over the last 12 months. There are reasons for this, with local politics and the falling price of oil -- Malaysia is an oil exporter -- weighing heavily.

In so far as GRPH is paid in US$ for its European biodiesel sales under its annual contract with a major international oil company ($45million in 2014) and for all its oil field services products, that should be an advantage, because it is paying its costs in the Malaysian currency.

What I am not sure about is whether the International Oil Companies, including Shell, which buy biodiesel to sell in the local market pay in the local currency or US$.

I will have a look at that tomorrow.

On Wednesday the Company posts its H1/2015 numbers. The Company has also indicated that it wants to reduce its gearing and may give some indication of how intends to achieve that together with some indication of the full year outlook. Given the Company made a gross profit in Q4/2014, it is to be hoped that it has carried that momentum through into H1/2015, if only by reducing its costs.

[pennysharemillionaire2] 28/9/2015 21:41

Leedskier,
there are certainly too many variables to guess with any accuracy the outcome. Whilst H1 is v hard to guess, it does look v good medium to long term, based on available info (contracts).
for example, what would be the value of a guaranteed sale of 135000 tonnes p.a, over 5 years, of platdrill be, plus royalty payments over 15 years ? (expected from q2 2016 onwards).

[leedskier] 28/9/2015 20:43

Without ducking your question, I am cautiously optimistic, but I do not want to ramp expectations ahead of the results on Wednesday.

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If for no other reason than I hope that the very heavy expenditure on R&D to get the product range up to speed will now have been reduced significantly. Was the R&D figure £6million last year?

[pennysharemillionaire2] 28/9/2015 19:31

I would add that subsequent,drilling fluid announcements, at the end of 2014 and so far in 2015 (including big order that has fallen in h2 2015) have a total value of $33 million.
If my above analysis is correct, they only need to make $20 million from drilling fluids to hit profit (possibly decent acculated profit) so roughly 60% of payment would need to fall in 2015.
We are awaiting results of platdrill tests with one of the top 5 oil co. in world in q4 2015. If successful, it could result in some significant orders.
Malaysia government has moved from B5 in 2014, to B7 in 2015 with a further increase expected to B10 in october (% of biofuel in diesel). Thats a 2-3% increase in revenues YoY.

[pennysharemillionaire2] 28/9/2015 19:27

Leedskier,
whilst we await for JH to answer.
I have been looking at the value of drilling additive contracts, the first of which was in july 2014, to try to get a handle of how much higher margin drilling sales are required to hit profits ; assuming that biodiesel fuel results will remain on par with q4 2014 (cautious assumption possibly).
Reminder : GRPH was profitable in q4 2014.
Déclared revenue in h2 from drilling fluids was $6.7 million. This equates to the total value of the first 2 drilling additive contracts announced in july and september.
The first contract was for a drill campaign that commenced in july 2014. I therefore consider that this revenue ($1.5 million) fell in q3.
As a result, the revenue booked in q4 was roughly $5 million.
So quaterly revenues of $5 million should assure profits, assuming that biofuel quarterly results through 2015 are equal to q4 2014. Obviously biofuel results could improve with better economic conditions.
Your thoughts ?

[leedskier] 28/9/2015 16:46

Now I have interesting questions for john henry ...

The FTSE100 closed down 2.46% today, it has never been as volatile in a long while as it has been over the last couple of months, GLEN alone fell nearly another 30% on speculation that it may have difficulties meeting its borrowing costs, yet there were more 310K GRPH shares traded and the buy/sell ratio was 3:1.

1) was GRPH thinly traded today?

2) were the shares, which closed up 1.74%, more loved at the close than when the share price was down nearly 7% earlier in the day and the buyers were ploughing in on a 6% spread?

You see everyone gets very excited when the shares of an Aim company rise or fall by more than 5% even in intraday moves, but no-one even takes notice if the shares move by 1% or so.

[leedskier] 28/9/2015 15:58

psm2, that is main market listed Scomi's view. Its view is that US$ revenue is money in the bank. There are links in the header taking one to Scomi's recent statements about this.

Whether or not that applies to GRPH depends crucially on what proportion of its revenue is paid in US$.

I am not making any calls ahead of the RNS.