Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[cocopah] 20/4/2024 13:24

I absolutely see the benefit of investing in different jurisdictions, especially the USA. My problem is that it’s difficult to see through the opacity with respect to revenue generation in the short-term or fully understand whether our 1 hour batteries is the optimal way to benefit from the different revenue stacks. Either way, it’s clear that the jury is out when it comes to the market analysts being convinced about income and dividend cover, which is seriously holding back share price performance.

Initially, I wanted to hold this share for the long-term, with a stable share price for income. However, now, when the market improves, I will be looking to exit and seek a safer haven for income.

Whilst communication has improved somewhat, I do believe that they could be more upfront (and I’ve given many examples on previous posts).

From memory the next update is in July so it’s just fingers crossed until then.🤷‍;♂️

[stemis] 20/4/2024 09:38

I think we will face a dividend cut in 2025 and still trade at a considerable discount (the worst of both worlds).

If that was the case then maybe it's because the NPV would be based on over optimistic future cashflow forecasts, the NPV of which, constitute the 'NAV'...

[melody9999] 19/4/2024 19:37

Coco 1351 - can you perhaps share your investment case for remaining invested in GSF...assuming that is the case?

[george stobbart] 19/4/2024 19:24

Chatter in the German meet lonely Ukraine ladies chatroom that GSF will receive a takeover bid on Monday RNS

[waterloo01] 19/4/2024 19:17

Do give it a break. Uk market improving and Irish and us assets look well placed. A lot can happen sentiment wise before 25.

[cocopah] 19/4/2024 18:37

Sobering update from #GRID (write up in Citywire today). They may be mainly U.K. based but nevertheless it bodes ill for the sector. Our 1 hour batteries remain a questionable strategy and the lack of information on revenue leaves us all in the ‘fingers crossed’ position. I think we will face a dividend cut in 2025 and still trade at a considerable discount (the worst of both worlds). 🫣 🤷‍a94;️

[stemis] 18/4/2024 16:36

Yeah, but the NAVs are just what the board think their subsidiaries are worth based on cashflows and growth assumptions none of us know.

[masurenguy] 18/4/2024 15:39

GRID unaudited NAV per share of 129p compared to the current shareprice of 38p. GSF unaudited NAV per share of 111p compared to the current shareprice of 64p. Crazy !
No position in either, just monitoring.

[george stobart] 18/4/2024 14:28

GRID RNS just out - RIP their dividend and buybacks for the rest of the year, effectively allowing their share price to melt further.

[melody9999] 18/4/2024 09:48

HEIT positive update. UK Revenues improving. Should be a positive read across.

[scruff1] 17/4/2024 21:31

I suspect you are overthinking it. I think maybe the seller has finished - at least for now - but the buyers are not yet out there in numbers until the route map is clearer

[cc2014] 17/4/2024 12:08

It does feel like a base has formed. At least the price isn't spiking around and it feels like neither the buyers or sellers are in a hurry.

My suspicion is that there are buyers out there knowing there are still sellers and they are trying to collect what they can without disturbing the price. On the other hand I think the sellers also know the buyers are out there and are being patient and trying to get the best price they can.

[brucie5] 16/4/2024 08:46

One sign of a basing pattern might be for the share price to hold firm when the index is largely falling around it... Suggesting it has nowhere further to go, short of a disastrous revelation. Profound scepticism is surely already in the price.

[masurenguy] 15/4/2024 17:44

"I decided to put more of my money where my mouth is and added two more names – Gore Street Energy Storage (GSF) and NextEnergy Solar (NESF) – to my existing exposure in Bluefield Solar (BSIF), Greencoat UK Wind (UKW) and SDCL Energy Efficiency Income (SEIT). The two new holdings came with dividend yields of about 11.5%, reflecting their sizeable discounts. GSF, as I have explained previously, is much less exposed to the problematic UK energy storage market than other listed peers and should see plenty of upside as its new plants in Ireland, Texas and California come onstream over the course of the next year or two." James Carthew, Citywire Columnist, 15/04/24

Annual dividend of 7.5p produces a yield of 11.8% at todays ASK of 63.6p !

[scruff1] 15/4/2024 15:09

Big Rock is fully funded with a £50m credit option undrawn. I dont think the funding there is an issue

[waterloo01] 15/4/2024 15:05

Fair enough, it is a long way from getting back to the heady heights of a premium to NAV, and will take a lot to go right, to get back closer to NAV

[loglorry1] 15/4/2024 15:01

He did say that which is a huge red flag when they have sunk costs into so many expensive batteries which currently produce miniscule revenues. Anyway I have no massive beef with GSF but "batteries are the future" -> "GSF to the moon" mentality is really missing so so much. On the more positive side the share price already reflects a lot of the prior mistakes.

[waterloo01] 15/4/2024 14:55

He also said that battery replacement costs had significantly reduced.

[loglorry1] 15/4/2024 14:45

"Considering that most of the portfolio has either been built recently, and much of the expansion already funded either from cash or at project level, and making the most of lower costs, the above comment is a bit daft"

Really? From what I could see it's only:

"£66m in cash or cash equivalents as of 31 December 2023."

and they have a lot of spend to do in the US to build out their capacity which from memory is way lower than they need.

I find it quite amusing that investors can wave away costs by calling the funding "Project level debt".

Then you have the depreciation problem that looks horrendous if we believe the lifetime of the batteries given by the CEO in a recent webcast linked to above.

Good luck though.

[brucie5] 15/4/2024 14:38

Well I had just a last last top up with some spare pennies I found round the back of my ISA, so...

I'll let wiser heads than mine decide the level of the sustainable dividend, but in the meantime it looks like a base to me.

[scruff1] 15/4/2024 14:09

and thats one thing they do tell us - they have the funds

[waterloo01] 15/4/2024 13:04

Considering that most of the portfolio has either been built recently, and much of the expansion already funded either from cash or at project level, and making the most of lower costs, the above comment is a bit daft

[loglorry1] 15/4/2024 12:51

The problem is that GSF have spent a fortune on batteries which they'll probably never see much of a return on since battery prices have dropped up to 90%. Yes they have other projects to bring online but very little cash to achieve that. Going forwards I can't see why their sunk costs can be recovered and why new entrants can't drive down the cost of storage with much lower capex costs.

Good luck tho.

[alan pt] 15/4/2024 11:13

The information expectations here do seem to be out of line with other investments and it does seem to cause people unnecessary stress and annoyance

If I am investing in Shell or BP, do I expect to know how much oil they pumped each month, what their monthly average selling price for the crude was, how their rig maintenance and upgrade programme has progressed that month?

Personally I take a sector view - whether on oil, on UK Small cap, or on batteries in this case and then if I like the sector prospects I pick the investment(s) that I prefer in that sector

So, the question is - do you feel positive about batteries?
If no, then divest - plenty of other opportunities
If yes then ask yourself if this the best pick in the sector (I'd say yes, though many commentators seem to prefer GRID, for reasons I can't fathom)

Just my world view, may not work for others