Gore Street Energy Storage Share Discussion Threads

[george stobbart] 30/4/2024 15:08

Blue horseshoe loves GSF.

RNS drafted as we speak and will be released tomorrow 1st May at 7am.

We are going to miss GSF from the listed markets but it is what it is. The drain of UK PLC continues.

[alan pt] 30/4/2024 14:58

No positive press release will move the needle on this. The market is negative on the sector and there is a big seller

If you think that will change and it'll bounce (I do) then wait patiently. If you don't then sell. Logically simple, sometimes emotionally difficult :)

[cocopah] 30/4/2024 13:39

There is a lot of noise today about renewable ‘valuations217; in the market, so it’s not surprising to see more shares under pressure. Let’s see what July brings!🙏7995;🙏ӿ95;

[cocopah] 30/4/2024 13:37

#Scruff1 I was really replying to Alan PT with respect to the sell. However, just to reinforce my opinion, not all commentary from the company needs to be about income. For example, the CEO has posted about their investment in new AI that will help prevent battery fires and reduce insurance costs (on LinkedIn today). Surely that was worth a mention to the wider market and investors!🫣🤷‍ϓ4;️

[scruff1] 30/4/2024 10:15

100k sale gone through. Bigger than usual. Lets hope its the end

[nickelmer] 30/4/2024 09:21

Management needs to stand up and address this, their silence is not good for investors, either they have a decent business or they don't, if they do, they need to show that fact in a statement

[scruff1] 30/4/2024 09:05

First time its broken into the 50's so it could be. If buyers arent attracted at this level they probably never will be

[george stobart] 30/4/2024 08:03

is this one heading to the earth's core

[scruff1] 30/4/2024 07:52

Coco. Im not telling you to sell up (or anything else - everyone makes their own decisions) and I do agree that management hasnt been great at communication - poor in fact, but I do think you are being a tad unrealistic in your expectations of them even so. I do appreciate the efforts you have made though in trying to squeeze some blood out of their stone nonetheless. Your post shows that you have come to the same conclusion as me - its very unlikely to become a great investment - from the point where we started especially.

[cocopah] 30/4/2024 07:36

#Scruff1 and #AlainPT1422 … there is no reason not to expect better from their senior team, whether that is communication, the release of timely information or simply acknowledging their responsibilities, Hand wringing and washing their hands of responsibility is poor behaviour and naive. It can pay to take losses but it can also pay to hang-in and take a lower loss or even break-even over time … IMHO it’s puerile to say “sell up” when somebody rightly critiques negative performance. Do I think the additional capacity in the USA will drive income? … the answer is yes … do I still think this is a long-term safe haven for income investors? … the answer is no (in part because of the way the CEO and board have performed and have treated investors) … so I will sell-out after the impact of the additional income is reflected in the share price. If that is still at a loss to my original investment so be it.

[waterloo01] 30/4/2024 07:35

UK-headquartered battery storage investor-developer Gore Street is using battery data analytics solutions to manage risk and get improved insurance terms on projects in its portfolio.

Gore Street Energy Storage Fund’s investment manager, Gore Street Capital, announced this morning that the fund has deployed the cloud-based battery data analytics software from Germany-headquartered provider ACCURE.

The predictive analytics solution is able to reduce operational issues and the risk of fires caused by thermal runaway events, Gore Street said.

The artificial intelligence (AI) driven software has been onboarded at two of Gore Street’s project sites in the UK: the 80MW Stony project which was energised last summer and is optimised in the market by EDF; and Lower Road, a 10MW project which went online in 2020 and is optimised by Arenko.

A source close to Gore Street Energy Storage Fund told Energy-Storage.news that this is thought to be the first deal of its kind in the UK to leverage an analytics solution to get improved insurance terms. With battery energy storage system (BESS) insurance costs currently quite high, the deal could “create ripples” through the industry, the source said.

The technology was tested at the two sites in 2022, while it is also set to be used at another project, the 50MW Ferrymuir BESS asset which Gore Street acquired in 2020 and is currently under construction.

[scruff1] 29/4/2024 17:55

Alain PT 1422
Totally agree. When I started many years ago I believed the oft quoted mantra that you had never lost until you sold. Maybe true but there are many occasions when those who sold and accepted the loss quickly lost a lot less than those who hung on to a forlorn hope, especially if they had moved their capital into a profitable investment. Conversely theres 'sell when it drops 10%'. I prefer these days to make my decisions on each individual case. I have to admit though that in this case my indecision has meant Ive caught my knackers on the fence. There is no doubt that if I had sold years ago and invested elsewhere I would be better off. But I am where I am. Frustrating as it is Coco you cant expect GSF to keep throwing out updates every 5 minutes. You have to take what is available and make a decision. Currently Im about 40% down which hurts - a lot. I no longer believe that GSF is ever going to be a great investment and will probably never recover my losses. However I do believe they have a future and that we are probably as close to the bottom as we are ever going to be and that a turnaround must be fairly close if there is ever going to be one. So I have decided to grit my teeth and hold on until it either rises or it becomes clear that it has indeed become a forlorn hope. Thats it. MY decision is made

[cousinit] 29/4/2024 15:51

I've used the bounce in GRID and HEIT to consolidate into GSF.

The UK battery revenues have improved (from the GRID and HEIT updates) but the weather has been windy and unseasonably cold so is perfect for battery trading spreads. Suspect it'll be a bit more normal soon.

In terms of the GSF diversification, it generally seems that when the weather is windy that the Irish market behaves like the UK on steroids so those batteries should have been delivering recently.

[alan pt] 29/4/2024 15:42

If you genuinely think that it will keep sliding until the end of the year then sell it!

Holding on in the hope of recouping past losses makes zero investment sense, especially when there are plenty of other opportunities out there

[cocopah] 29/4/2024 15:37

Until there is an update on income I can see this just keeping on sliding down, like a slow death. Bearing in mind that there has been no communication about increased income over the last month or two, then I’m not expecting great news. Perhaps the tide will turn when California comes online at the end of the year.🤷‍;♂️9763;

[kev0856153] 29/4/2024 14:45

It's all about the angle. You need to point up.

[george stobart] 29/4/2024 14:42

why is this pish not going up

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 14:32

Interesting fordtin. Thanks.

[fordtin] 29/4/2024 14:30

Hi Brucie5,
My portfolio is mostly passive income, with occasional small tweeks to rebalance.

I had a rummage through the last few years of financial reports this morning and it confirmed my gut feeling that it’s pointless trying to figure out the next year’s dividend cover, EBITDA etc. using figures from a period when they only had about 60% of current capacity and before they issued a load of shares to fund growth.

If you look back to post #1398, they’re expecting another major hike in capacity by the end of the year, so any financial predictions are still very 'whether' dependent.

I don’t know if the seller(s) intend to take the share price much lower, but I decided it was cheap enough for a top up, so just spent my last month’s divi sweep on a few extra GSF shares.

[brucie5] 29/4/2024 12:00

fordtin29 Apr '24 - 08:11 - 1411 of 1415
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Thanks so much. Only question for me really was whether this was an add or hold since I hold it as part of a largely passive 3rd party folio of income stocks. In which respect this is most helpful.
;)

[leadixon] 29/4/2024 09:49

Well after 4 months of keeping an eye on this, I’ve decided to take the plunge and bought a small £3.5k position, alongside my NESF i bought 3 weeks ago. I just can’t see how this has much more to go and majority of risk is baked in. Even if BOE does a .25 drop in the next 3/4 months it should help sentiment across the renewables market as a whole.

Agree with all the comments though about the gap in clear communication in financials…..praying for sufficient divi cover

[wassapper] 29/4/2024 08:48

Thanks fordtin. Intersting observations which on their own might make GSF a buy, but when you figure in the paid for growth in (international) capacity this year, it makes for a very compelling story. See also GRIDs more positive results this morning.

[fordtin] 29/4/2024 08:23

You’re welcome scruff.
For anyone who isn’t aware of it, if you look below the video to the bit that shows the number of views, then click on ’more’, it reveals a link to enable an AI transcript.

It’s raw with no punctuation, so takes a bit of time to tidy up for posting quotes, but it's a lot easier than trying to type it from scratch if you’re a two digit typist like me.

[scruff1] 29/4/2024 07:51

Thanks fordtin. Interesting

[fordtin] 29/4/2024 07:11

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26:43
questions more specifically for James's portfolio manager, James can you say more about what battery storage assets you see most attractive and why do you consider that the current prices of GRID and others are an overreaction of recent problems?

27:00
Yes that's a good question, what I would say is that all three are trading now at a discount to replacement cost, so if you had to go out and build those assets it would cost considerably more than their implied value. Given their share prices in terms of ones we own, we actually own all three.
We were big sellers of GRID and Harmony HEIT toward the end of last year. So they were much smaller parts of the portfolio than Gore Street, which is GSF.
And the reason we did that was, and I should say we sold them at quite considerably higher prices than they're currently trading at today, and the reason we did that is that revenues were actually falling off for quite a way over last year as the frequency market became rather saturated.
Now the key differentiate between these three companies is that Gore Street is a much more international business in terms of it has assets in Ireland and also in in the US, and a small one in Germany as well.
Now, if you take Gore Street's NAV, and you assume that it's UK operations are totally worthless and just value the US and the Irish and German assets, you still come out, I mean I worked it out at 72 P, so I'd encourage people to do their own calculations, but you know it's easy enough to do.
So, the shares are implying that the UK assets are worthless and there's a discount on the US and the Irish assets, which have actually continued to perform very well. So that's why we have quite a considerably higher holding in Gore Street than the other two.
Now, one thing that's been happening recently, which should work to the advantage of the predominantly UK ones, so Gresham, GRID and Harmony HEIT, is that the UK's or National Grids balancing market system, whereby batteries will be full participants in the balancing Market, which has taken a while to get off the ground, now does seem to be hitting its stride and both those companies GRID and Harmony have recently reported improved revenues over March and in to April.
Whereas the share prices don't seem to have reacted quite in the way that I would have imagined.
So, yeah, and that's a kind of long roundabout way of saying I'm not allowed to say whether they're expensive or cheap, but, yeah, the market doesn't seem to have given them, I think, the credit they deserve. And the market just seems to be rather fixated on the very low revenue environment that we saw in January and February, and doesn't really attribute any improvement in revenues that we've actually seen coming through over the past month or two.



30:05
okay um and then uh the next question

(Apologies to the interview participants for any errors in punctuation)