Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[kimboy2] 17/7/2018 09:23

The point about Joe Punters is that they tend to be driven by sentiment rather than by analysis, which creates opportunity. We could at some stage, as ISTR DS pointed out, be swamped by overexuberance as we are by underexuberance at present.

The update on Monday (or whenever) is not a final judgement or a goal but just a signpost on the execution of a strategy. The strategy is to produce about 50kozs of gold in recovery and up to 10kozs from Kili.

If they can do that then GDP will be making £4-5m attributable and the share price will be between 20-30p.

The two components that need executing are getting Ghana up to 20kozs from the present 10kozs or so. There are two fuid beds going in which will add 3kozs. The rest will depend upon getting sufficient relaiable supply of material to justify the investment.

The second component is stage 3 at Kili. There are two factors here. Firsty getting profitability up to actually produce the cash and secondly getting sufficient relaiable material to process.

The good thing is I don't think stage 3 is very expensive as they have quite a bit of the tackle, perhaps $1m. The rest is just sorting technical problems.

All in all I would reckon perhaps 18 months to achieve these objectives.

Then there is a mining deal, Ghana and elsewhere clean ups and the stock dam but these are to some extent outside their control. I would tend to view them as jam on top when they happen, which I think they will.

[michaelfenton] 17/7/2018 09:06

santori - nice sensible thoughtful comments - thanks.Confirms my mostly positive thoughts.

[utsushi] 17/7/2018 07:18

Stocks always have a tendency to go down after they have gone up, I think it may have some thing to do with investor psychology, I get a sense that with GDP the buyers are starting to get more involved here in this normal pullback, hence I don't see the stock reaching 5p, 5.25p-5.5p maximum because the valuation is simply too low.

As KB2 says, there are many Joe Punters here, they are useful for providing liquidity at the tops and the bottom, in the middle its just fluff, stocks will trend towards their intrinsic valuation longer term, no matter what the short term fluctuations are-assuming news flow confirms of course...

Finally, what I like about Gerard Kisbey-Green CEO and his management team, is firstly his sense of the "big picture", how they are slowly improving the infrastructure of the plants, Ghana and Killimaphasa Gold Mines, upgrading efficiency and output, it would not surprise me if they did not have a view to selling out to a major like AngloGold Ashanti or Kinnross Gold in the next 5-10 years.

Secondly, they have a sense of "balance", they are not taking on too much debt, are maintain healthy cash balance, and are using the CAPEX spent wisely-these are all very encouraging qualities for the future growth "potential" of the company.

[1rodson] 16/7/2018 17:01

Scratching around on a hot aft reenrol is no fun especially looking for some cheapie so.

Looked at GDP and found the Brokers' forecasts are going to be hard go meet., that being so sub4 looks on the cards.

[1rodson] 16/7/2018 14:09

Well as expected the selling trend seems to have kicked off looks like will will hit 4 soon.

I suggest though that you all keep following S7()8 the sure road to lose you money

[dangersimpson2] 16/7/2018 13:53

With the lack of news this is maybe following the dollar gold price down. However this doesn't make a lot of sense to me given that the gold weakness is at least partially due to dollar strength and the rand gold price is higher than it has been for most of the year.

Anyway, means that a reasonable amount of stock seems to be available sub 6p and I'm happy to pick some more up given this represents a discount to TNAV & puts the company on a EV/EBITDA of around 1.5 for the year just ended (assuming they hit broker forecasts of course.)

[1rodson] 16/7/2018 13:52

Well as expected the selling trend seems to have kicked off looks S7 is furious or is it his Mrs as its her money he plays with or rather loses.

[sea7] 16/7/2018 09:51

If you mean the two sell trades today, with a combined value of £629.83p, then your definition of a big sell, is significantly lower than where the rest of us place the definition of "big"

[1rodson] 16/7/2018 09:31

Well another big sell starts the week off if this is the trend we could well see 4p by week end.

[1rodson] 16/7/2018 09:04

The question that be asked here is when are they going to get things rights?

All quiet on South America, anyone know what's happening there?

It was all the rave just a while back.

[1rodson] 15/7/2018 12:32

Santori don't forget the tip of a few months back that made a load of sense to me....if the dog hits 11p sell, sell, sell.

So expect a load of downward pressure!

[kimboy2] 13/7/2018 09:36

Seems sensible enough to me.

The key problem is that 80% or so of the shareholders are Joe Punters. That might total 3 or 400 investors. They determine the price.

There are various catalysts. There is the short term one in the operations update. There are also one's in relation to mining ventures and any clean up contracts they can get.

Then there is the catalyst of just putting present plans into effect. In South Africa this would be the stock dam, in Kenya stage 3 of Kili and expanding Ghana to 20kozs of production.

If they do this, and I hope it to do so in the next couple of years, I would expect the attributable profit to be north of £5m.

We won't be 6p then.

[utsushi] 13/7/2018 07:57

Some great private equity entrepreneurs say that you should "plan the play", and then "play the plan", when the rain clears here's how it might work out...

1.Valuation limits the low in the share price, around 6p, spot gold soft at the moment, this should be temporary.

2.Catalyst needed, arrives in the form of Trading and Operational Update in July or Finals in September.

3.Confirms low P/E of 4x historic, low P/E prospective vs high EPS growth rate, PEG below 1, reassures on operational concerns re Kilimapesa processing plant production etc.

4.Share price reaches 2 year ceiling price of 8p, attracting momentum/trend investors on a trend change breakout, due to scarce liquidity the additional buying power pushes the share to 10p-12p, or a 100% upside from here at 5.875p.

5.Obviously DYOR, since there is something called the "unknown and the unknowable", the great and the good regularly make mistakes in the stock market where they have a limited operational edge.

No position held.

[sea7] 12/7/2018 18:02

Yes on both counts, we had good sentiment to the stock with the gold price at 1600 and as KB says, the Tolling was a good earner, which iirc, represented 55% of the profits back then - CIL was 35% and the only bit remaining today, which is the spirals and incinerator section was 10% of the profits.

[1rodson] 12/7/2018 16:50

Pity S7 is on filter I do this as I can't be bothered to read his pigs' swill.

Although, that said you mugs seem to be doing well by listen to him as you must like losing your money.

This guy S7 is really twisted he is despised on the other BBs.

Tell you what pick any of his statements and over the years concerning me, he has many many so pick anyone you like, tell S7 to repeat it and back it up with. 50 grand wager.

I in turn will do the same to clearly prove he is lying. He is lying to make himself look clever and to influence you mugs into buying or staying in his dog share GDP........THERE ARE TOO MANY LOSERS IN THIS DOG, MANY THROUGH FOLLOWING S7.

[kimboy2] 12/7/2018 12:35

Back in 2012 the company benefitted from a rising gold price which increased the profitability of their inventory and contracts.

They also had the tolling agreement in Ghana which was earning something like £1.5m pa.

[shareholder7] 12/7/2018 11:16

Gold price was around 1600 then sea and confirms that GDP share price is linked to the gold price The fall in the share is hopefully a reflection of the fall in the gold price and nothing sinister If we hit that number again for POG share price would be around that number again

[sea7] 12/7/2018 10:26

When goldplat put in its best set of figures in 2012, the GP% was about 23% of rev, so the optimisation, even at lower gold prices, is showing that the levels of profitability are returning to previous levels. Incidentally, the share price was 14p when these results were published.

[kimboy2] 12/7/2018 10:12

The performance of the company since getting GKG as CEO is pretty good;

H1/15 H2/15 H1/16 H2/16 H1/17 H2/17 H1/18Rev 8.054 8.574 10.673 9.512 14.415 17.2 18.27 GP 0.102 0.866 1.201 1.807 2.122 3.07 3.153GP% 1.26% 10.10% 11.25% 19.00% 14.70% 17.80% 17.25% Admin -0.929 -0.761 -0.956 -0.88 -1.113 -1.173 -1.575 Op Profit -0.827 0.116 0.245 0.927 1.009 1.9 1.578

[sea7] 12/7/2018 10:01

Shareholder, I cannot really criticise a team that has turned this around.

Demetri, former CEO left in september 2012 after boardroom bust up.

Kili went on care and maintenance, with staff retrenched in 2013, when kenyan govt gazetted new rules on local ownership, which meant kili would cede 35% to locals without payment, possibly.

Ghana - during 2013/2014 loss of 90% of the business, when govt stopped third party tolling and env agency closed the CIL section due to environmental breaches, which included fines.

South africa - rand refinery dispute heated up during 2014, whilst Ian Visagie took over as interim CE0 - by end 2014 they were barely taking any of goldplats dore for refining - they did not wish to deal with him at all.

Gerard was expecting to take over as Non exec chair in October 2015, which was put back to 2016. This was suddenly changed in feb 2015 when Gerard took over as CEO.

Since then, he has worked tirelessly to get this business back on its feet.

Kili is about profitable for the first time in over a decade. Probably only cede 10% to govt.
Ghana is growing and heading towards more production that it has ever done.
South africa is in better shape and growing, albeit slowly as it is a mature operation.

Sourcing is coming from a wider variety of suppliers now, there is no reliance on rand refinery. Rand is dealing with Goldplat even after the recent spat over the silver sulphide contract.

Operating profits are near levels we haven't seen for over 5 years.

They have further to go and these accounts should show the progress made. This should be the final set of accounts which contain remnants of the issues of the past years.

The share price went from 1.75p in july 2015, to 8.5p in jan of 2018. That means in 2.5 years, Gerard and co oversaw a share price increase of nearly 400%. Sure the price has dropped back, however, this is not due to operational issues, it is partly the drop off in gold, partly boredom selling and partly related to holders moving to other assets as interest rate rises, make gold less appealing.

I am not seeing the volume that would indicate any issues, so, unless there is a deal in the offing, which is debt/equity and a leaky ship is letting some know ahead of time, then I am not overly concerned about the share price and have added more at these prices.

[shareholder7] 12/7/2018 09:20

GKG has done everything he can to try to find new shareholders on his PR campaign.The only thing that will make this share fly are good results and no more banana skins.As you know I am not happy with the management yet there seems to be little criticism. This is why the share price is depressed. The handling of the RR issue does not inspire others or past share holders.Its when the likes of DD come back in then GDP will have turn the corner but we don't trust the management My call is there is something a foot as the market makers are pushing the share price down after year end.I am afraid its the same old story, next year Rodney we will be millionaires

[1rodson] 12/7/2018 08:42

This guy Fenton says he is happy with the company's progress.

He must have a telegraph pole in his eye, better keep buying MF one gray they may find what it is that makes the company institutionally inept to move forward?


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In my opinion although I am happy with the company progress I am not happy with the share price The 10p figure is an obvious impediment to further expansion? The management is so busy that they have taken their eye of the share price problem. There are things they could do to improve that aspect?

[michaelfenton] 12/7/2018 08:25

In my opinion although I am happy with the company progress I am not happy with the share price The 10p figure is an obvious impediment to further expansion? The management is so busy that they have taken their eye of the share price problem. There are things they could do to improve that aspect?

[kimboy2] 12/7/2018 07:59

The advantage buy backs have over dividends is that they can be reissued. I can't see them having dividends while they are likely to be raising capital in the future.

The question is why should GDP buy shares on a p/e of 4 or so when you can buy a bit of tackle on a p/e of 1 or 2?

I suppose the answer would be what will be the effect on the share price IMV the short term effect would be to lift the price for relatively little expenditure. In the long term, assuming rational markets, the share price will be higher investing in tackle as profits will be higher.

The problem with this argument is that the company probably wants to raise some money in the not too distant, and has said that they won't under 10p at least. I would suspect that the low share price is holding back expansion plans as it limits financing.

Anyway IMV it is an option that management should give themselves at the AGM. They don't have to use it, but if they have spare cash sitting in the bank with nothing to spend it on then perhaps they could buy some shares.