I sincerely hope you are right Lowtrawler as then I will get back in. |
Their financial year is end June and the AGM is usually around Xmas. I previously thought we would see a shareholder reward programme after Q3 trading update but now think they will wait for the Q4 trading update and possibly closer to the AGM. It's all guesswork and most of us will just be happy if it happens this year. What I don't want to see is a token dividend or buyback programme. It has to be at least 0.8p per share to be a credible change of direction. |
Lowtrawler, the end of this financial year would be more appropriate. No reason to wait unless they are unsure of revenue going forward. But then they should communucate that! |
MF, I'm expecting 2 main stages - shareholder returns, and; unlocking the TSF
I believe we will see shareholder returns towards the end of this year and the TSF early next year. The share price will take time to fully respond to both events. I will review at the end of this year and if shareholder returns are still not on the table, I will have to reconsider. |
2 yrs is a long time to wait for something that may not even happen. |
 MF, as you know, I completely exited GDP only to return last year. I believe the management know how to operate their core business and have been doing so profitably for many years. The management are certainly "stupid" when it comes to pet projects, strategic slip-ups, communication and planning. These weaknesses also cause them to lose sight of some of their core activities from time to time.
My hope is they focus on their core business. Learn from Ghana that they have a repeatable business model and expand into South America.
IMV, they are already generating more cash than they need and so shareholder returns should not be far behind. Although moving at a glacial pace, the TSF is nearing reality and all obstacles should be cleared early next year.
IF they introduce a meaningful dividend or buyback programme, it will herald a new investment stage for GDP where the share price will be based on yield. Once the TSF is finally underway, we will get visibility on the expected windfall and we should move to prospective yield.
My main concern is whether shareholders will be allowed to fully benefit from these events. As a small company, there is always the chance we get screwed over. Even so, in my worst case scenario, we only get to partially benefit from the TSF and income - maybe as little as 40%. Time will tell whether I am being too optimistic but events are likely to unfold over the next 2 years. I'm going to be here until at least the end of this year and hopefully for the longer ride. |
Some of us have been steadily selling and finding better homes for our money? I might be tempted back but the management seem to be either stupid or duplicitous. |
Kimboy214 Feb '25 - 09:00 - 11790 of 11794 0 5 0
"I have to say I am getting a bit fed up with GDP".
You've been invested in and posting about Goldplat since at least 2012, the share price is lower now than it was when you started and you've never had a dividend, yet it's only now you're getting "a bit fed up"! |
If Goldplat feels like an edgy investment to you, it does to me too. But I think the business as it stands today is more reliable than it looks. I want to get to know it better, so it has joined my watch list. |
I do agree that it seems they are deliberately keeping price down I won't be surprised if any takeover attempt comes at these low prices |
kimboy2, sums up perfectly what is wrong with GDP.
Simply improving communication and presenting future plans would have a material impact on the share price So, why haven't they done it?
You can only conclude they are either not in control of their business and so cannot explain what is happening or what they are planning for the future, or; they are being deliberately obtuse to keep the share price low.
If I was into conspiracy theories, I might suggest Martin would like GDP to invest heavily, not pay a dividend and keep shareholders in the dark so he can swoop in with a low priced acquisition. |
I have to say I am getting a bit fed up with GDP.
On the update the numbers were down on last year, but there was £2m of 'revenue' held up due to some mob in Ghana.
Of course we don't get told how much this will affect the PBT. I would expect it to be at least 20%. The Ghana operation tends to have better margins than SA so Q2's numbers may be equivalent to last year.
They say £900k has been spent in the first half on expanding capacity.
As this is 10% of the market cap of the company it would be nice to know exactly what this was, and what the benefit would be.
It isn't apparently to turn the gold into bars as this £250k is still to be spent.
They say;
Even at the higher gold price, it is uneconomical to process the old TSF through our current infrastructure and it cannot replace, even at lower margins, the reduction in by-products we are experiencing.
This is just dissembling. I never thought it would, otherwise they would be doing it already.
But what about if they got some new tackle. What are the economics of that? They chose to mislead rather than actually inform us.
The fact is there is a heap of gross value $350m sat outside the back door of a £12m company, and we don't know;
1. When it is likely to be monetised
2. The obstacles that are preventing them from monetisation
3. The economics of any processes
4. The likely profitability to GDP
5. The economics of any alternatives to speed up the monetisation.
I understand the arguments about dividends and why they shouldn't be paid at the moment. But this is the cheapest profitable gold share on the market.
The reason for this irrationality? Because punters are not given the information to make rational decisions. |
"grow market share" - another spurious goal. |
Some more on the 'mob'. |
yasX, until either they introduce shareholder returns or unlock the TSF, you will remain correct. I expressed a view last year that there was no need to rush into buying GDP as any movement in the share price would not happen until 2025. However, I do believe the long wait for shareholders is nearly over.
I say this because Ghana will be more profitable than before due to its reconfiguration, the TSF is close to being unlocked and Martin will ensure a return on his investment. Last year, I thought shareholders would begin to see price appreciation around Q2 of this year. I now believe it won't be until late 2025. However, the exact timing is unknown and remains dependent on shareholder rewards and the TSF.
If you don't believe GDP will begin rewarding shareholders or unlock the TSF, you will not see this as an investment opportunity. |
Thanks kimboy2, I had emailed them asking for clarification on the wording and wonder if that prompted the correction. |
Are you sure? My recollection is Lowtrawler talking about the trading range this is stuck in (about which he has been pretty much spot on, sadly). |
Lowtrawler,
You were told this months ago but at the time you shrugged your shoulders and suggested those not invested would miss out heavily.
This is not a business for minority holders since they benefit neither from price appreciation nor a dividend. |
The announcement today did not contain any information that would cause me to revise my investment position. It does not surprise me that the market has responded unfavourably but that says more about the market than about GDP. I think it has been well flagged that Ghana would perform less well than last year while it is being reconfigured. Personally, I'm hoping to see some gradual improvement in Q3 compared to Q2 with full speed in Q4. |
It isn't correct though.
It is 90 days.
Also saw this;
Even at the higher gold price, it is uneconomical to process the old TSF through our current infrastructure and it cannot replace, even at lower margins, the reduction in by-products we are experiencing.
Presumably if it could be put through the current tackle profitably they would already be doing that.
It would be interesting to know how much capex they would need to spend to do it profitably. Don't suppose we will find out.
Their begnning to sound as though their in bed with DRD. |
In the annual accounts, this is what they say:
"The processing of our old TSF remains dependent on land owner consent and the approval of the water use license over certain areas for the installation of a pipeline to the DRDGOLD process facility. We aim to have the final application submitted before the end of January 2025, subject to land owner consent. The approval process normally takes 365 days from submission."
If this is correct, all approvals cannot be "expected" to complete until end January 2026 at the earliest. |
The phrase used is this:
"The processing of the old TSF remains dependent on the approval of the water use license by local authorities and approval from third parties in certain areas for the installation of a pipeline to the DRD Gold processing facility. We also still need to agree commercials terms with DRD Gold based on test work and analysis which is ongoing. During Q2 there have been several engagements with all parties involved and good progress has been made, with the aim of getting all approvals completed by June 2025."
As the paragraph commences with water use licenses, the phrase can only be properly interpreted to mean that "all approvals completed by June 2025." include the water use licenses. I suspect they intended for the approvals only to refer to the third party approvals for the pipeline and commercial terms with DRD gold. |
Approvals back? in June again for the TSF. |
From the RNS:
We continue to focus on the work required to begin processing our old TSF which has a JORC Resource (January 2016) of 81,959 ounces in 1.43m metric tonnes (Table 1), at a DRD Gold processing facility. Since the completion of the JORC resource, circa 800,000 metric tonnes of material have been added to the facility at grades of circa 1.45g/t as per plant data and are not included in the current resource statement.
I.e. Goldplat has in excess of 120.000 Ounces of Gold in the TSF! Not bad. |
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