Geopark Share Discussion Threads

[thegreatgeraldo] 30/11/2012 12:10

Tatiana should be next up?

PS - Looking back...

"During the second quarter of 2011, the Company re-oriented its drilling activities towards oil. Successful wells include Konawentru 1, that discovered oil reserves in the Tobifera formation, which was put into production in late June, and is currently producing in excess of 1,400 bopd."

Currently at 1120bopd, so rather a good well, pretty gentle decline

[sailing john] 30/11/2012 08:59

Morning Gents

Out of hibernation for a bit of good news I see.

But still obviously off the radar for the masses. Less than 3k traded this morning and possibly a single buyer taking whatever he/she can get from the market.

I'm looking forward to some further good results in the Spring. (Zen thanks for the detailed update)

SJ

[nielsc] 30/11/2012 08:40

Zengas,

"K4 was spudded in October (no date given) - so we had a result in a maximum of 8 weeks or less and straight in to production."

Yes very impressive. They are obviously following the "Dallas" method of drilling for black gold - drill a well in a few days and then start producing immediately ;-)

Cheers,
Niels

[zengas] 30/11/2012 08:26

A good result and much more valuable oil production with 100% to GeoPark.

During 4Q 2012, the Company will continue its ambitious drilling program with the addition of approximately 12 new wells. "Key wells" in the 4Q 2012 drilling program include (pre-drill information):

Tranquilo Chile Marcou Sur 1. 8/98 Bcf Spud Target: October 2012.
Tranquilo Chile Palos Quemados 1. 11/192 Bcf Spud Target: November 2012.
Tranquilo Chile Ea. Maria Antonieta 1. 8/138 Bcf Spud Target: December 2012.
(Above 3 wells 29% working interest).

Fell Chile Konawentru 4 Spud Target: October 2012 (Todays result of 700 bopd).
Fell Chile Konawentru 3 Spud Target: December 2012.
(Above 2 wells 100% w.i).

Fell Chile 100% Yagan Norte 4 Spud Target: November 2012.

Llanos 34 Colombia 45% Tua 3 Spud Target: October 2012.
Llanos 34 Colombia 45% Max 2 Spud Target: December 2012.
(Above 2 wells 45% w.i)

Interesting that they have announced today a further 2-3 Konawentru wells immediately after Konawentru 3.

Konawentru 1 has produced since 2011 and currently producing at 1120 bopd and has produced over 710,000 barrels to date so the production levels fron Konwawentru appear very good. Circa 700 bopd has been added (subject to LT stability) today and K3 + 2-3 additional wells could make a significant impact here alone at this one field.

See they didn't have to use a w/o rig and talk of having used new tech that has reduced costs and substantial waiting times.

K4 was spudded in October (no date given) - so we had a result in a maximum of 8 weeks or less and straight in to production.

[nielsc] 30/11/2012 08:20

Not like them to make an announcement on one drill result. Maybe because they deem this to be a significant result and that the share price is perhaps flagging a little.

Nice that Konawentru 4 is a 100% WI well :-).

Interesting to note that the Konawentru 3 well is being drilled after the number 4 well.

The other 100% WI drill in Q4 is Yagan Norte 4 which is also on the Fell block.
This stock is still unloved, but worth sticking by it.
£11 in 2013... at least.

Cheers,
Niels

[melody9999] 30/11/2012 07:40

nice drilling result. Konaventru field looks a good un.

Commenting, James F. Park, CEO of GeoPark, said: "The results from this new Konawentru well in Chile are significant from production, operational, field and regional perspectives. The new well will immediately add to our growing production base. The technology innovation improves our economics. The successful well confirms the opportunity for further development and production drilling of the Konawentru field. In addition, the result expands the overall prospectivity of the Tobifera geological formation on a regional perspective. It represents a new dimension in GeoPark's continuing success in exploring and developing for oil and gas in the Magallanes Basin in Southern Chile."

[melody9999] 12/11/2012 13:52

Quite right Tyler. here is the cut from the half yearly 26 Sep:

...."GeoPark's active 2012 work and investment program of US$200-210 million in Chile, Colombia and Argentina includes drilling 42-48 wells, with 15 - 21 wells planned for 2H2012 and producing 11,000-12,000 boepd...."

In Q3 we have 10,723 bopd. That is without TUA1 at 1,100 bopd. Assuming nothing else comes on stream, and current production is maintained, that gives us 11,823 in q4 and around 11,500 average for the half year. Anything else is a bonus.

I would say these guys are right on track. In fact the announcement today serves to re-assure and confirm.

Consequently I've nipped 800 more at 630p.... and the price moved up as I was doing that so maybe someone else feels the same way!

[zengas] 12/11/2012 13:49

Very small volume and liquidity for a near 7% fall back today and down from a recent high of circa 750p.

Production is ok and up on the same quarter last year, but could be better given that it was at 12,300 boepd (63% oil = 7,149 bopd) back at the time of the 2nd acquisition earlier in February as well as averaging just shy of 12,000 boepd in Q1 compared to 10,723 boepd average for Q3 just past. They have missed their targets that they set for this year and production is down by about 12% this year in Q3 compared to Q1.

I would have expected on the back of such extensive drilling for production to have increased Q on Q. They have not said why production has slipped back though there are wells on stream/coming on stream from October (Q4).

I'm wondering if part of the production decline is because of the fracture studies on 6-8 wells in the Fell block. Preliminary results were expected Q4 (RNS 26/9/12). These results are mentioned today as not being expected until Q1 2013. They could and imo should have explained the production dip from Q1 to Q3 this year and not soley compared the figures to last years corresponding quarter. They already disclosed in a previous announcement that the original higher exit rate for 2012 would be missed. Imo they need to set a realistic target guidance compared to the amount of drilling/expenditure involved.

Slightly dissapointing but current production is significant with 60 mmboe P2 and a new reserves upgrade likely against a current m/cap of £262m. Debt was $154.9m (mainly end 2015) and cash was $66m 1st July = net debt circa $88.9m (£55m) = valuation of £317m on circa 11,000 boepd (over 7,148 bls being oil and further production to come on stream ).

[tyler90] 12/11/2012 12:41

So as I thought guidance has not been missed. I am confident that with the proposed drilling programme they will exit 2012 as planned.

[clive1] 12/11/2012 11:54

Guidance was from from half year report.
GeoPark's active 2012 work and investment program of US$200-210 million in Chile, Colombia and Argentina includes drilling 42-48 wells, with 15 - 21 wells planned for 2H2012 and producing 11,000-12,000 boepd.
To be fair if Q4 is above 11300 then the guidance target will be met.

[thegreatgeraldo] 12/11/2012 11:41

A bit more detail on Tatiana would have been helpful.

[tyler90] 12/11/2012 11:28

Production increased 21% to 10,723 boepd; Tua2, Tua3 will be tested and drilled during 4Q2012 and Max2 will be drilled in 4Q2012 so that previous guidance of 11,000-12,000 boepd by close of 2012 is still feasible. Am I right in my assumption?

Even if this were not the case, 21% increase cannot be frowned upon and is pretty significant in terms of revenue coming in.

I am also comfortable with my holding and will look to add when further funds allow. All IMHO and DYOR.

[melody9999] 12/11/2012 11:19

Clive - thanks. To put the miss into perspective, we are under by 300 bopd or 9,000 over the 3 months.

So if TUA1 had come into production 9 days earlier, at 1100 bopd, GPK would have hit forecast.

On this basis the share price drops by 6%???? Tell me I have got it wrong.... if not then I must seriously consider adding here at this level.... because everything looks to be going to plan.

By the way, what is the source of your production guidance?

[clive1] 12/11/2012 09:16

They have missed previous guidance of 11000-12000 boepd, a small miss but disappointing and the share price is down.

[melody9999] 12/11/2012 08:26

looks like things are starting to ramp up here. max and tua only came on stream during q3 2012 so their full effect on production will not be seen until q4. meanwhile 12 new wells to be drilled q4. looks good to me!

very comfortable with my holding

[zengas] 24/10/2012 20:57

Plenty of drilling between now and the end of the year nielsc. Best of luck over at PPC.

[nielsc] 24/10/2012 10:59

Should be due the Q3 update in the next couple of weeks.

Cheers,
Niels

[nielsc] 16/10/2012 12:13

ZENGAS,

o/t
Thanks for highlighting PPC recently. I have taken a stake and hopefully things go well for it.

Cheers,
Niels

[thegreatgeraldo] 03/10/2012 15:06

Update yesterday from Parex on blocks 32 & 34..... mixed bag -

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/10/2012 22:56

Interesting PPC pres, need to be a bit patient, not much happening until they've shot & processed seismic?

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/10/2012 16:42

Zen,

Referring to the pres they're targeting nearly 200bcf (net) in the Tranquilo & Otway blocks in H2, some other stuff as well ;-#)

[nielsc] 02/10/2012 15:09

ZENGAS,

This is definitely a waiting game. Still not much PI interest in the this share. I think £11 has to be the starting point based on what LG have paid for it in the past.

I am happy to continue holding this for a good few years. Hopefully see £15-£20 in a couple of years, but will continue holding if they keep growing at this rate.

Cheers,
Niels

[zengas] 02/10/2012 14:11

The reserves were just shy of 60 mmboe P2 in February 2012.

Page 1 of the results/September 2012 presentation tells us of the number of new wells drilled to June 2012 and then says re Colombia - "Significant increase in net reserves through new discoveries".

Potential imo over the next 12 months along with the 6 month reserves lag to head for the 100 mmboe range.

[nielsc] 02/10/2012 13:54

sailing john,

I did a small top up first thing on Monday as the results looked good. Plenty of good results to come :-)

Cheers,
Niels