Geopark Share Discussion Threads

[tyler90] 31/7/2012 12:22

Looks good from a chart perspective (Double Bottom & W formation); possibility of a break out but don't ask me when! LOL!

[thegreatgeraldo] 23/7/2012 13:26

Steady progress on both fronts (Chile & Colombia), although the headline production number is disappointing. However, Max & Tua (45%) not included, nor Maniceno (10%). Max due on production test shortly (late July), Tua in Q3 & Maniceno started production this month. Testing on Samaria (10%) & Celeus (36.8%) set to begin shortly (July)

[thegreatgeraldo] 20/7/2012 20:11

The small free float cuts both ways - I understand it puts instos off as they can't pick up worthwhile holdings.

[nielsc] 20/7/2012 15:36

ZENGAS,

That is confidence in GPK. Nice research there. Thanks.

Of that 4-5m free float I can assume quite a bit of it is pretty tightly held. I'm the kind of investor that usually doesn't sell until they have to (i.e the company is bought over). I'm sure there are a few on this bb with the same mindset.

Might do a bit of top slicing around the £15-£20 level.

With such a small free float if it does come onto the radar of investors the move upwards may be pretty quick.

Cheers,
Niels

[zengas] 20/7/2012 07:21

Institution increasing in this overlooked gem.

Cartica bought a further 1% of the company shares announced today 20/7/2012 (worth around £2.75m). Major Shareholders (Only 42.5m shares in isssue and from below = a very tight Number of Shares and % held (as at 31/12/2011).

The free float remaining for PIs is circa down to 4-5m shares.

GERALD E. O'Shaughnessy CEO 8,172,793 = 19.24%.
ENERGY Holdings, LLC 6,983,068 = 16.44%.
CARTICA Corporate Governance Fund, L.P. 4,325,212 = 10.18% (now 11.1% 20/7/12).
IFC Equity Investments 3,456,594 = 8.14%.
PERSHING Keen, New Jersey ND) 3,147,571 = 7.41%.
MONEDA A.F.I. 2,062,660 = 4.86%
UBS Wealth Management (ND) 1,665,437 3.92%.

Other Directors (latest annual report) = 9m = 21.2%%,

20 July 2012 RNS 1038I at 7:00 am

GEOPARK HOLDINGS LIMITED
HOLDING IN COMPANY
GeoPark Holdings Limited ("GeoPark" or the "Company"), was notified on 19 July 2012 that fund entities managed by Cartica Management, L.P. now own 4,711,708 shares in the capital of GeoPark, representing 11.1% of the Company's issued share capital.

[tyler90] 12/7/2012 16:21

Is that a 'W' forming on the chart? All IMHO and DYOR

[sailing john] 09/7/2012 12:56

TGG - I agree and I'm pleased they have issued a Colombia update.

I am quite unusual in that one of my investing criteria (for my initial investment in a stock) is BB interest (or rather lack of it!). I avoid investing in stocks that have BBs with more than one or two posts per day or companies that issue endless news which is often not needed but is clearly designed to pump the price.

Certainly can't accuse Geopark of that or this BB of being overactive. It's a pleasure just to read informative research from Zen, yourself and others and have some general chat about valuations. Long may it continue. Heaven forbid that any dyslexic GKPers arrive here!

SJ

[thegreatgeraldo] 09/7/2012 11:58

John,

Re your earlier comment about releasing news. I agree there's a balance to be struck between updating on every well & keeping the market in the dark. I'm not too concerned about updates on dev wells, but given that Colombia is a new venture, it's well worth updating on potentially material explo results outside of the 1/4ly schedule. Slightly odd that the partners didn't agree to release at the same time.

[sailing john] 09/7/2012 11:34

Good to see them issuing some Colombia news and it appears to have prompted a bit of interest with decent volume and significant trades at 655.
GL - SJ

[zengas] 09/7/2012 07:20

Excellent news this morning from just part of the up to 55 well drilling programme.

We've added a net 1624 bopd production initially here from 3 wells.
2 new oil fields discovered.

A. Block Llanos 34 (Operated by GeoPark with a 45% Working Interest (WI))


I. Max Oil Field Discovery

Exploration Well Max 1 is currently testing approximately 1,220 barrels of oil per day (bopd) of approximately 15[deg] API oil, with a basic sediment and water cut (BS&W) of 18%, from the Guadalupe formation with an electrical submersible pump (ESP). Further testing will be required to determine expected and stabilized production rates.

II. Tua Oil Field Discovery

Exploration Well Tua 1 is currently testing approximately 1,723 bopd of 18.2[deg] API oil, with a BS&W of less than 0.5%, from the Mirador formation by ESP. Further testing will be required to determine expected and stabilized production rates.

B. Block Llanos 32 (Operated by P1 Energy with GeoPark owning a 10%1 WI)

I. Exploration Well Maniceno 1 - a previously announced discovery - has been put into production during July 2012 at an initial rate of approximately 3,000 bopd of 28[deg] API oil.

II. Exploration Well Samaria 1 completed drilling in June 2012 with potential oil pay in the Mirador, Guadalupe and Gacheta formations. Testing is expected to begin in July 2012.

C. Block Llanos 17 (Operated by Parex with GeoPark owning a 36.8%(1) WI)

I. Exploration Well Mapora 1 completed drilling in June 2012. Log analysis indicated that the well had no potential oil pay and therefore will be plugged and abandoned.

II. Exploration Well Celeus 1 completed drilling in April 2012 with potential oil pay in the C7 and Gacheta formations. Testing is expected to be carried out in July 2012.

Commenting, James F. Park, Chief Executive Officer, said: "The new Max and Tua oil discoveries represent an important step forward for GeoPark with our recently-acquired projects in Colombia. They demonstrate our ability to build value through the drill bit in a new region for us and represent a significant de-risking of our new Colombian acquisitions by converting exploration potential to new oil production and reserves. We look forward to further results from our 45-50 well drilling program in 2012 in Chile and Colombia."

[sailing john] 06/7/2012 14:50

TGG - they don't issue much news and certainly not individual drill results. They have only just started giving us quarterly updates!
Personally I prefer it that way - if you plan to be invested here for another 5 years then news isn't really an issue. I'm happy to look at the new quarterly updates and 6 monthly results and trust the management to invest wisely.

The market will catch up eventually!

GL - SJ

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/7/2012 10:42

The update from Parex struck me as positive, surprised GPK hasn't updated & just as surprised the share price hasn't budged.

[nielsc] 06/7/2012 08:28

tgg,

..and I've been checking the Parex resources web site each day. Obviously you are a bit quicker than me. :-)

Nice to get an update on those wells. Pretty good results. Will they produce from the different formations simultaneously?
Around a 1000bopd to GPK if you include the Maniceño-1 well.

Max-1 still to be flow tested from the Gaudalupe A & B formations. Hopefully that goes well.

Cheers,
Niels

[thegreatgeraldo] 06/7/2012 00:05

Also,

Block LLA-32 (Non-Operated 30 percent Working Interest) Geopark 10%

As previously reported (May 10, 2012), the Maniceño-1 well encountered approximately 50 feet of net pay in the Mirador Formation and over a 6 hour production test period the well flowed naturally at an average rate of 3,036 bopd of 27° API oil with water-cut of less than 5 percent. A pump was installed in the Maniceño-1 well and the well was re-tested over a 7 day period with varying rates from approximately 1,500 bopd to over 4,000 bopd. Over the final 12 hours of the test, the average production rate was 4,344 bopd with an average water-cut of 0.7 percent. The well is expected to commence production during the first half of July 2012 at a rate of approximately 3,000 bopd.

The second and final Phase 1 commitment well on Block LLA-32, Samaria-1, was spud May 26, 2012. The well has reached its target drilling depth of approximately 11,200 feet and has encountered prospective oil pay in the Gacheta, Gaudalupe and Mirador formations. The Samaria-1 well was cased and in July 2012, and completion and testing work is scheduled to commence.

[zengas] 05/7/2012 23:59

Thanks tgg.

3 wells that Geopark are involved in with their partners Parex news release - 2 of which look to be very decent over a number of different formations.

45% to Geopark
Tua-1 was spud on May 6, 2012, was drilled to a target depth of approximately 11,000 feet and was rig released on June 10, 2012. The well encountered potential pay in the Gaudalupe and Mirador formations.

The Gaudalupe formation was perforated over a 19 feet interval and was flow tested over a period of 11 hours under natural flowing conditions. A total of 169 barrels of 12.8° API oil was recovered during the test at a final measured rate of approximately 400 bopd with a 1 percent water-cut. Bottom-hole pressure recorders indicated the producing drawdown during the test was approximately 12 percent. The Gaudalupe formation was temporarily suspended to allow testing of the Mirador formation.

The Mirador Formation was perforated over a 24 feet interval and tested with a pump. After 53 hours of testing a total of 2,118 barrels of 19.4° API oil was recovered with a final water-cut of 0.5 percent.

The maximum rate achieved during the test was 1,915 bopd and an average rate of 1,700 bopd was achieved during the final 13 hours of the test at the final pump speed setting. The Mirador formation will be placed on long term test and the partners in the Tua-1 well are evaluating delineation options for both the Mirador and Gaudalupe formations.

45% to Geopark
The Max-1 prospect was drilled and cased during the first quarter of 2012 and prospective pay was encountered in the Gacheta, Gaudalupe A, Gaudalupe B and Mirador formations. The well was completed and tested in all zones to determine flow capability and oil gravity.

The Gacheta formation was perforated in two separate intervals totalling 23 feet and tested under natural flowing conditions for a period of 37 hours. A total of 279 barrels of 35° API oil was recovered during the test for an average daily production rate of 181 bopd. The final water-cut was less than 1 percent and bottom-hole pressure recorders indicated a bottom-hole drawdown of 35 percent during the test.

The Gaudalupe B Formation was perforated over a 25 feet interval and the well was swabbed. A fluid sample of 12° API oil was recovered from the well and the zone was temporarily suspended to allow for testing of the zone with a pump at the end of completion operations. Swabbing operations are not an effective method to evaluate productivity in heavy oil zones due to the difficulties swabbing oil with higher viscosity. The Gaudalupe A zone was perforated over a 34 feet interval and 14.5° API oil was recovered during limited swabbing operations. As in the case of the Gaudalupe B zone, the zone was temporarily suspended to allow testing of the zone with a pump at the end of completion operations.

The Mirador formation was perforated over a 26 feet interval and was tested with a jet pump over a 26 hour period. A total of 148 barrels of 22° API oil was recovered during the test along with 470 barrels of water. The final measured water-cut was 85 percent. The Mirador formation will be suspended to allow testing of the Gaudalupe A and B formations with the use a pump which is expected to commence in the next week.

Block LLA-17 (Operated 40 percent Working Interest) (37% Geopark)
The Mapora-1 exploration well was spud on May 12, 2012, was drilled to a target depth of approximately 12,600 feet, and was rig released on June 8, 2012. Log analysis indicated that the well did not encounter commercial oil pay and the well was abandoned. Parex expects to start the Celeus-1 well completion during July 2012. Following the completion of the Celeus-1 well, the Phase 1 work commitment program on Block LLA-17 will be satisfied.

Not a bad result for 3 wells when you consider that up to 55 wells are in the years drill programme, with possibly similar next year imo.

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/7/2012 23:43

On the off chance that there isn't an update in the morning...

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/7/2012 23:37

Forget the above - Colombian update likely in the morning!!

[thegreatgeraldo] 05/7/2012 11:10

It's frustrating watching the share drift given all the activity in Colombia - should see the next 1/4ly update next month.

[zengas] 05/7/2012 08:44

Don't get me wrong chaps, I'm not knocking Amerisur, but i just see GeoPark as considerably ahead in the game and missed by many.

45-55 wells this year.
What next year ?

Don't forget looking at major new deals with LGI in the $100m - $500m size range.

The 2 Colombian acquisitions earlier this year came out of the blue.

[tyler90] 05/7/2012 08:26

Zengas: I agree there is a bit of froth in the Amerisur share price at the moment and the present valuation has a lot of good news built in to it. I do hold them and will continue to hold but Geopark is certainly undervalued just on the present situation and not even taking into account any future growth.

Niels: Looking to continuing adding up to £10; I think we are looking at a fair price of £11-£15 over the next 12 months

[nielsc] 05/7/2012 08:09

tyler90:

I have held these for a couple of years now buying at £5-£5.50 and then watching them rise to almost £9. On this more recent fall I have bought some more in the £6 range. Kind of think £10 would be more appropriate with their large growth potential. Perhaps come the next set of finals the market might take a bit more interest.

ZENGAS:
The market can throw up some discrepancies. It just goes to show how sentiment driven the markets can be at times.
Thanks for your calculation. Always interesting to read over.
With a 80-100% production increase for 2012 the market may take notice. I realise some of the has come from acquisitions, but still impressive.

Cheers,
Niels

[zengas] 05/7/2012 07:33

nielsc i've been using the net figures. I'll be very happy if we break $300m this year and i expect more acquistions to come.

Existing revenues were $111.6m based on 7593 boepd average production with a further $68m and $30m coming pro-rata from 2 Colombian acquistions of 2800 bopd = $209.6m pro rata on circa 10,393 boepd. If prices stay roughly the same and average production for 2012 increases as forecast by 80-100%, then 2012 revenues would be around $375m - $420m

Compared to Amerisur (South America) with a £212.5m m/cap, £10m cash end December.
7.7 mmbo P2 + significant exploration potential.
sub 600 bopd production,
2011 revenues of just $14.2m.
Targetting 5,000 bopd at the end of this year.


Since that post of mine on 24th April, Amerisur have brought on a well at 1500 bopd.
Their market cap at 39p yesterday was £356.4m compared to GeoPark at £268m (630p).

That's a serious discrepancy in value and shows how undervalued GeoPark is.
GeoParks debt is $168m but have $75m cash which equals net debt of $93m (£59m).
Even adding on the total net debt of £59m to GPKs m/cap of £268m = £327m - Amerisur is valued by 10% more which would equal a share price of a minimum £7.00 for GPK.

This takes no account of GeoParks massive superior revenue generation, much greater production, 60 mmboe P2 booked reserves and even Amersiurs low cash position.

[tyler90] 04/7/2012 23:10

Yes, thought I would go against the 'Sell in May' last year and bought at above £7 but have averaged to about £6. Looking at adding more because the story has more meat on it 14 months down the line.