Geopark Share Discussion Threads

[thegreatgeraldo] 27/4/2012 14:58

I'd like to see the company raise its profile & have passed on my thoughts! News releases are about right - in the past year or so they've been roughly 1/4ly - interims, finals & a couple of ops updates. I understand they meet instis fairly regularly, but the free float is on the skinny side so it's hard for them to pick up a worthwhile stake.

[sailing john] 27/4/2012 14:46

Thanks for shaing SG - Good summary from IC

Anyone else know of any oilers with a market cap of only £275m drilling 55 wells this year (and next?). Plenty of news to come me thinks but Geopark don't make a fuss about every drill preferring to issue biannual summary statements with what for any other company would be stunning news. eg the Ops update from July 11 which had a new well Konawatri delivering 2k/day oil from initial tests. They are pumping the oil but not the share price which I prefer.

[simon gordon] 27/4/2012 14:30

IC - 23/4/11:

Geopark Fulfils its Promise

Ramping up production at a time of high energy prices is paying off for Latin America-focused Geopark . Oil revenue, mainly from Chile, grew by over half in 2011 to $73.5m (£46m), driven by a 27 per cent increase in production to 2,510 barrels of oil per day (bopd). An ambitious drilling programme and recent acquisitions make this year's target to double average production very achievable.

Output so far this year is a better than expected 12,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), up from 7,593 boepd at the year-end. Buying 10 blocks in Colombia recently for $105m has helped. Three of them are pumping out 2,800 bopd and 2P oil reserves are put at 10m barrels. Still, it's the core Fell block in Chile that's the biggest money-spinner, currently responsible for 9,500 boepd.

Encouragingly, three new blocks in Tierra del Fuego, Chile, share similarities with Fell, and two now have final regulatory approval. Given unrisked mean resources of 50m-100m boe it is unsurprising GeoPark will spend at least $101m here over the next three years. That's part of an aggressive investment plan to spend $240m in 2012 alone, some of which is earmarked for an assessment of oil and gas shale potential in Argentina and Chile.

Broker Oriel Securities is reviewing its 2012 adjusted pre-tax profit forecast of $76.8m, implying EPS of 71.9p, given "conservative" production estimates.

SHARE TIP UPDATE:

With funds to drill 55 new wells this year and Tierra del Fuego worth between 500p to 1,000p a share, according to Oriel, 2012 has bags of promise. Blue-sky potential from unconventional sources is a bonus. Buy.

[nielsc] 27/4/2012 14:11

ZENGAS,

Thanks. Plenty of mistakes made and lessons learnt since then, but have done pretty well overall having moved into mining share as well as staying with oil shares. I have high hopes that GPK is going to prove to be another good pick.

I like the fact this bb is and has been so quiet for so long. Reminds me of a couple of shares that have done very well. When we get the same number of posts in a day as we got in a week then GPK will be on the way and hopefully a multiple of the current share price :-)


Cheers,
Niels

[thegreatgeraldo] 27/4/2012 14:04

Let's see what happens with LGI on the Colombia front.....LGI haven't joined in yet.

[sailing john] 27/4/2012 14:02

TGG re acquisitions
As you know the plan was to do JVs with LGI. However it is interesting that LGI are investing in Geopark Chile (Circa £11/share) but not in the recent Comlombian acquisitions. There could be many reasons for this - perhaps not a country that LGI wish to enter or deals too small.

My view is that LGI prefer less risk and might come on board at a premium price in Colombia once Geopark has established a decent sized business with long term growth opportunities. Alternatively LGI might prefer to fund Geopark via further acquisitions of GPK Chile in 10% bites perhaps ending up with 50% in a few years. Either way it is good for GPK especially as LGI appear happy to pay an apparent significant premium to the current share price

Plenty of demand today at the full offer price of 655. I don't think we will be staying below £7 for much longer and hopefully will have a go at £10 before year end.

GL - SJ

[thegreatgeraldo] 26/4/2012 21:24

Agreed about the possibility of further acquisitions, maybe rather larger than the Colombian pair announced so far?

[zengas] 26/4/2012 21:04

Hi nielsc.

Yes seems many moons ago. Hope your well.

I would expect an operational update in due course. I'd like to think £20+ is certainly achievable with patience. Has to be the possibility of further acquisitions down the line.

If they are drilling up to 52 wells this year, there could be similar numbers of wells drilled over the following year and beyond.

[nielsc] 26/4/2012 15:41

sailing john,

I have got a reasonable sized holding. Am hoping to add some more if IAE is taken out.

I do wonder when this will come on the radar. I wouldn't think £8-£10 would be too much to ask currently. As you say if some of their drilling prospects come good then a far higher share price in the future would be reasonable.

Cheers,
Niels

[sailing john] 26/4/2012 12:45

Hi Niel
I added a few last Sept but as my third largest holding I'm pretty much loaded up.
Target remains £20 by 2014? and I'm now much more confident that this can be achieved. 2012-2014 will be transformational given the number of prospects being drilled.
Still off the radar though
SJ

[nielsc] 26/4/2012 12:28

sailing john:

Well the lower prices of late proved to be a good time to top up. Glad I did do before the recent moves upwards :-).

ZENGAS:

Thanks for sharing your detailed analysis of GPK.

o/t I think I remember you posting a long time ago (5/6 years ago) on Caspian oil or VOG. Am I close?

Cheers,
Niels

[sailing john] 26/4/2012 11:53

Ah it's spring again yawn! But despite the rain it looks like a few Geoparkers are coming out of hibernation! Sleepy heads are slow readers but they now appear to have absorbed the content of the results and caught up with our Colombian acquisitions... trundled down to the bank and are now buyng a few more.

Zen - Thanks for taking the time to crunch numbers and share.

SJ

[zengas] 24/4/2012 14:22

yep bonds included in post 557 re valuation comparators on Amerisur and Parex of which both have much less P2 reserve.

[thegreatgeraldo] 24/4/2012 11:36

2 points - yesterday's figures point out that current production is 64% oil - 7800bopd, so the increase in Chilean prodction is oil, which is worth rather more than Chilean gas.

Don't forget the bonds....

[zengas] 24/4/2012 07:58

The average production was 7593 boepd for 2011 (pre new acquistions).

With the 2 new acquistions in January and March this year, this added a further 2800 bopd. With these acquisitions average 2011 production would have been 10,393 boepd.

Total production at the moment is running at 12,200 boepd at the end of Q1 2012.

Tucked away in the results is mention of a targetted increase in average production of 80% - 100% for 2012 over 2011.

Using the pre acquisition figure of 7593 boepd - 80-100% targetted average increase for 2012 = 13,667 - 15,186 boepd for 2012.

Using the combined acquisitions of 10,393 boepd - then an 80-100% targetted increase for 2012 = 18,700 - 20,700 boepd.

To acheive the above average figures, therefore by the end of the year the exit figure would have to be even higher (current production 12,200 boepd).

They also state that 45 - 55 new wells will now be drilled, 35% of which will focus on exploration for new reserves - therefore 30 - 35 will be development wells.

Existing revenues were $111.6m based on 7593 boepd average production with a further $68m and $30m coming pro-rata from 2 Colombian acquistions of 2800 bopd = $209.6m pro rata on circa 10,393 boepd. If prices stay roughly the same and average production for 2012 increases as forecast by 80-100%, then 2012 revenues would be around $375m - $420m - which imo will lead to even higher growth opportunities and further acquisitions and a potential future valuation of £1b+.

£244m m/cap less net cash of £46m = valuation of just £198m and current 60 mmboe P2 with huge exploration upside across multiple licences(+ huge shale potential). Still overlooked and significantly undervalued.

Compared to Amerisur (South America) with a £212.5m m/cap, £10m cash end December.
7.7 mmbo P2 + significant exploration potential.
sub 600 bopd production,
2011 revenues of just $14.2m.
Targetting 5,000 bopd at the end of this year.

[thegreatgeraldo] 23/4/2012 15:58

Why do you say that?

[sparkstrader] 23/4/2012 14:28

According to the published results diluted EPS has declined from 0.0944 to 0.0012....surely this is a typo?

[pimsim] 23/4/2012 12:12

Ok - now I get it - thanks for the clarification.

[lonrho] 23/4/2012 12:04

the great geraldo

sorry meant chile as noted in my earlier post

[thegreatgeraldo] 23/4/2012 11:45

There's been no mention of LGI having a stake in the Colombian deals. LGI have 20% of Geopark Chile & unsurprisingly are entitled to 20% of the operating profit given that around 99% of GPK's t/o & profit comes from Chile.

[lonrho] 23/4/2012 11:39

LGI own a stake in the colombian subsidiary, tax is paid on the total profits of this subsidiary and the retained profit after tax is divided up between geopark and lgi in proportion to their shareholding percentage.

[pimsim] 23/4/2012 10:35

Thanks Guys - so just to be clear LGI have a 20% stake in Chile operations but do not have any stake in Geopark ownership. I still don't quite understand why they are accounting in this way - it looks like Geopark are paying tax on LGI profits as well as their own?

[sailing john] 23/4/2012 10:24

Last year LGI paid circa £100m for their 20% stake in Chile assets equivalent to £11 per share. They don't have a stake in the Argentina or Colombia assets and will obviously be expectinga significant mark up on their £11/share investment.

It won't be too long before we are on the radar given current progress and valuation.

SJ

[lonrho] 23/4/2012 10:18

pimsin

this will represent the profit relating to lg internationals share of geoparks chilean profits. Effectively geopark consoldidate the whole of the chilean profits and assets into its results and then take them out again at the bottom of the profit and loss and also in the balance sheet as a non controlling interest.

[pimsim] 23/4/2012 10:11

Looks very promising - could someone help me understand a technical point in the results. $5,008,000 of post-tax profit has gone to a non-controlling interest but I can't see any explanation of who/what this is. This seems to be the first year it has happened?

Who owns a non-listed part of the company and what is their entitlement to profits going forward?

Any help much appreciated