Geopark Share Discussion Threads

[nielsc] 04/7/2012 23:05

Tyler90,

They have got plenty to get on with on the ground. I'm sure in due course they will get some attention. The interim and final results will speak for themselves :-)

Have you held these for long?

Cheers,
Niels

[tyler90] 04/7/2012 22:17

This is a little gem that has not been noticed yet or more to the point the board are not interested in getting it noticed! Interesting!

[nielsc] 21/6/2012 09:27

sailing john:

Thanks for that a simple oversight.

I topped up with some more GPK as I still see plenty of potential here.


ZENGAS:

I read one of your other bb posts. You where estimating revenues of between $375-$420m for 2012. Does that take into consideration the LGI 20% stake.

Working from those figures give a current capitalisation of around 1.02-1.14 times the cashflow. I think 3 times cashflow is more normal. That would give a capitalisation of £825m (sp of £19.42).

Cheers,
Niels

[sailing john] 14/6/2012 13:56

Hi Neils

LG International think so as they were paying over £11/share equivalent price for their 20% stake in the Chile assets last year and I assume they want to make a profit.

But to be accurate you need to take the LGI 20% stake off the Chile P2 and add the potential from the new Chile fields which could be much larger but not yet included. Still some hope value re new fields (as with most oilers) but I trust the management - so far they haven't put a foot wrong!

SJ

[robpuguk] 14/6/2012 13:55

Scratch that - see they do do them! :)

[robpuguk] 14/6/2012 13:53

Do most brokers do these? my jarvis account doesnt seem to recognise it :(

[nielsc] 14/6/2012 12:12

From Q1 2012 update

"Oil and Gas Reserves

DeGolyer and McNaughton ("D&M") concluded its independent reserve certification of GeoPark's properties in Chile and Argentina dated 31 December 2011 with a 2P reserve estimate of 49.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (mm boe), comprising 34% oil and 66% gas. These figures do not include approximately 10.0 mm boe (100% oil) of 2P reserves (GeoPark internal estimate) resulting from the two Colombian acquisitions completed during 1Q2012."

So GPK has 2P reserves of

26.83 mm bo
32.67 mm boe


Would it be fair to value 2P oil at $20 and 2P gas at $10.

That would give a value of $20*26.83m+$10*32.67m=$863m=£556m
giving a share price of £13.

Would that be fair?

Cheers,
Niels

[nielsc] 13/6/2012 14:48

thegreatgeraldo,

This is true. Worth keeping an eye out for partner news releases.

I kind of let this one trundle on. One day it may catch the attention of the city.
A good investment and I have high hopes for it.

Cheers,
Niels

[thegreatgeraldo] 13/6/2012 14:44

Indeed, they've promised quarterly updates, but some of the partners may be keener to get results out?

[nielsc] 13/6/2012 13:59

thegreatgeraldo,

I believe GPK lump all their well results into quarterly updates as they have so much going on. I look forward to the next one.

Cheers,
Niels

[thegreatgeraldo] 13/6/2012 12:00

Nosing around on tinterweb & came across this recent Parex pres

(pages 9-13 have some useful maps)

should see some news from a few wells in the not too distant

On May 22, Parex announced -

Mapora-1 (LLA-17) spud May 13
Samaria (LLA-32) - rig on site
Max (LLA-34) - testing of 4 zones kicked off
Tua (LLA-34) - spud 6 May, casing being set at 9500 ft

[thegreatgeraldo] 08/6/2012 16:31

Blimey - a mention in today's Times market report!! Oriel have apparently pointed to the price being offered for Pacific Rubaies & suggested GPK's Llanos assets may be worth more than it had previously thought.

[tyler90] 07/6/2012 13:56

Thanks Zengas

[zengas] 06/6/2012 19:04

I doubt it very much Tyler and i put it down to general market conditions and the wait for the next news updates on operations which are never that frequent.

Q1 2012 production average was 11,987 boepd (63% oil) and was over 12,200 boepd at the end of the quarter.

The producing ops that make up the Q1 production are

Chile 8940 boepd (4527 bpd oil).
Colombia 2982 boepd (2967 bpd oil).
Argentina 65 boepd (51 bpd oil).

Out of the 60 mmboe P2, only 2.4 mmboe is attributed to Argentina and operations are small there currently and with no immediate drilling plans.

The companies that you speak of are targetted because of the dispute over the Falkland islands and drilling in those waters and nothing to do with Geopark. Peter Levines President Petroleum that operates in Argentina also, put out a statement some time ago that they were unaffected by Argentinas policies.

[tyler90] 06/6/2012 18:35

Is Geopark's share price being affected by Argentina'a plans to sue British oil companies?
I don't recall it being one of the companies listed but it may be suffering due to Desire Petroleum, Falkland Oil and Gas, Rockhopper Exploration & Borders & Southern Petroleum being targeted.

[bazzerp] 29/5/2012 18:09

Very "off the radar" I wish I had some spare cash - come on GKP & Todd Kozel, get it sorted !

[zengas] 16/5/2012 21:56

These 3 blocks are of interest -

GeoPark have 36.8% of Colombian Blocks Lla 17, 45% of Lla 34 & 10% of Lla 32 - all partnered with Parex and part P1 Energy.

We also have other Colombia block interests - 10% in Arendajo and 100% of La Cuerva.

There appears to be some potentially significant prospects across the 3 blocks i highlight as these are with Parex.

Of interest is the fact that on block Lla-16, Parex are producing some 11,000 bopd a few kms away next door to block Lla-17 (and planning to increase production there beyond the current 11,000 bopd figure).

Lla-17 has already found oil via the Celsius well and awaiting completion. If block Lla-17 is as good or similar to the current 11,000 bopd from Lla-16, this would be tremendous for GeoPark.

GeoPark appear to have made a number of new Colombian discoveries over and above their start point acquistion of 2 Colombian assets of 2,800 bopd.

And on the 10% interest they hold on block LLa 32 with Parex and P1 Energy - GeoParks maximum details said this - quote "Exploration well Maniceno 1, the first exploration well in the Llanos 32 Block in Colombia (operated by P1 Energy with GeoPark owning a 10% WI), was spudded in March 2012 and reached TD of 11,027 feet in April 2012 targeting Mirador and Ubaque formations. Log information in the Mirador formation indicates approximately 50 feet of net pay. On a 21 hour production test the well accumulated (natural flow and with jet pump) total production of 3,219 barrels with less than 7% basic sediment and water (BS&W). This initial result requires further confirmation from a longer term production test (expected during 2Q 2012).

P1 Energys announcement on the same well - Greater flow rates and only from 14ft of the 50ft net pay flow tested.

P1 Energy Corp. Announces Significant Crude Oil Discovery.

The Maniceño-1 well was spud on March 2, 2012 and after a side track of the original wellbore, reached total measured depth of 11,027 feet on April 18, 2012. The well targeted the Mirador and Une formations. Log interpretations in the Mirador indicate net pay of more than 50 feet. The top 14 feet (10,750' - 10,764') of the indicated pay in the Mirador was perforated and production tested on jet pump at an average rate of 7,280 barrels of oil per day of approximately 25 degree API crude oil and less than 5% basic sediment and water ("BS&W") over a four hour period. The maximum flow obtained from the well during the jet pump test was 9,512 barrels of oil per day over a one hour period during the four hour period. The well also flowed naturally at an average rate approximately of 3,036 barrels oil per day over a 6 hour period with downhole restrictions due to the jet pump assembly. Initial test rates are not necessarily indicative of long-term production rates. P1 plans to install a high volume electric submersible pump ("ESP") in the well before releasing the drilling rig to drill the next well on the Block. The Maniceño-1 well was the first of two commitment exploratory wells on the Block.

After release from the Maniceño-1 well, the drilling rig will move to the second commitment exploratory well on the Block called Samaria Norte-1. Samaria Norte-1 is expected to spud in the second half of May 2012 and is targeting the Mirador and Une formations.

[zengas] 09/5/2012 11:09

Average production Dec 2012 = 9400 boepd. This was nearly all from the Chile 'FELL' block.

2 mid/late Q1 Colombian acquisitions made 14th Feb (800 bopd) and 27/3 (2000 bopd).

Production quoted as 12,200 boepd on 23/4/2012 (64% oil).

Now into mid Q2 with more development wells drilled and awaiting completion this and next month on the FELL block.

Also new Colombian development/exploration wells drilled and awaiting completion May/June.

Other wells awaiting testing - then completion if successful (some already with net pay identified - one flowing over 3,030 b/oil on 21 hr test and 50ft net pay identified subject to 10% interest.

More wells to spud May/June/July & August in the short term.

Could see 15,000 boepd close to being achieved in next quarter. Biggest number of wells being drilled ever.

Production is predominantly from the Chile FELL block and 2 new Colombian acquistions.

Now multiple blocks (19) to develop/explore compared to just 6 in 2011.
75% of the production (9400 boepd) and now rising - is just from the Fell block alone - ie just one block.

Again they are highligting the totally seperate unconventional resource potential of its seperate shale oil/gas possibilities.

Looking personally for an exit target range of close to 18-20,000 boepd by year end on current 45-55 well programme for this year.

Possibilities for further acquistions (actively looking and 2 already made of 2800 bopd net). If a similar $100m acquistion made - target 20-24,000 boepd.

Multiple blocks to be developed/evaluated/explored considering that 9400 boepd comes from just 1 block.

With a possible 40-50 wells in 2013 and perhaps an acquistion - target 25-30,000 boepd end next year ??

Shareprice was over 900p in 2010 on much, much lesser production, reserves, lower oil/gas prices and revenues, so i view it as still a long way to go to get back to decent value and with such strong forecast production growth and likely acquistions, 1500p - 2000p must be a reasonable target considering production and the chances of material upside from exploration.

42.5m shares in issue and tightly held.

[sailing john] 09/5/2012 08:11

Comprehensive ops update out. Good to see we are now going to get quarterly updates.

Included the following
Yagan Norte 2 - Fell Block 100% GeoPark producing at 970 bopd plus gas

Yagan 1 recompletion +frac 100% Geopark producing at 770 bopd plus gas

SJ

[thegreatgeraldo] 30/4/2012 14:25

Looks attractive to me on the production plans - add in the explo drilling & deal potential & what's not to like?

[zengas] 30/4/2012 14:21

Thanks tgg.

Well with that kind of revenue GPK could certainly move up a few gears.

They made 2 acquisitions in the space of 2 months which bought reserves, exploration potential and 2800 bopd production for a combined $105m.

If they are looking at joint deals in the initial size of $100m - $500m bracket, then they could also grow agressively via acquisitions while ramping up production from their existing operations. Certainly potential to add significant further production via acquisitions based on what they already paid for the 2 acquisitions and the monetary size of deals they are looking at with LGI.

So far we see their plans for 45 -55 wells for 2012, but what of next year and beyond ? (another 50- 100 wells ?).

[thegreatgeraldo] 30/4/2012 13:24

Hi Zen,

"Oil/Gas % ratio target for 2012 is for 90% oil which would have a dramatic effect on revenues."

90:10 is the expected revenue split, which in my book translates to a 2:1 split on volumes - on 15k boepd, roughly 10k bopd & 30mmscfd. On current pricing (c $90bbl in Chile, higher in Colombia?), that translates to around $340 mill oil revenue, gas revenue last year was $38 mill. Not a bad potential out-turn! Still the possibility that LGI could join GPK on the Colombian deal, which possibly helps explain the large range for forecast 2012 production?

[zengas] 29/4/2012 23:50

More acquisitions and joint deal news very possible as new projects actively being screened.

Latest Presentation London roadshow.

19 blocks across 3.9m acres.

2012 estimated average production target = 13,600 - 15,300 boepd - versus 2011 average production of 7600 boepd.

If those targets achieved, then we should see a 2012 exit rate up to 18,000 boepd as current production is 12,200 boepd.

Oil/Gas % ratio for 2011 was 66/34 split.

Oil/Gas % ratio target for 2012 is for 90% oil which would have a dramatic effect on revenues.

45-55 new wells estimated for 2012.

High impact exploration in Chilean Tranquilo & Otway blocks.

Tierra Del Fuego blocks 50 - 100 mmboe preliminary estimated resources with 30+ oil leads + 15+ gas leads (Chile) with 22 wells planned to replicate producing Fell block (Chile). Several oil + gas fields already discovered on the Tierra del Fuego blocks with early production opportunities.

25-30 wells planned on the producing Colombian acquisitions with 25+ mmbls resources and 10 mmbo P2 so far on 10 blocks.

"Actively screening new projects"

"Strong cash position for acquistions and new investment".

*LG International - Strategic growth partnership*
"Side by side acquisitions (initially $100m - $500m size)".
"GeoPark is General Manager of Partnership and Operator of acquired projects".
"LGI contributes technical and financial strength".

[jumbo66] 27/4/2012 21:46

how r u tgg loverly 2 see u about regards j[hd]:-}}