Genesis Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[baht] 22/7/2008 16:14

Up 23% on no news today. If they actually released a RNS saying drilling started etc what rise then????

This share has to have the strangest price movements of any share I own or have owned.

[popen] 22/7/2008 10:09

Perhaps the Company can now (Q3) clarify this for shareholders ?
They could give a lead perhaps unless there are
commercial reasons not to ?
Sedco 704

[jimarilo] 22/7/2008 00:47

BP probably sub-letting the rig to ADTI October is my guess

[stoploss2] 21/7/2008 16:34

BP have got the Sedco 704 on contract until November 2008.

Then ADTI have it from November 2008 onwards.



Do we know under which contract the GPC well will be drilled?

The latter seems more likely as ADTI are a turnkey contractor ( so would seem more likely to work with AGR Peak whom GPC have already stated will drill the well - but that will mean a spud date of November 2008, not Q3 as has been consistently stated.

Or have GPC managed to secure a slot on BP's programme???

Could BP be a farm in partner? Website states GPC are actively seeking "industry partners" for this block:



SL2

[jimarilo] 18/7/2008 09:48

There was always going to be a risk of this with the knowledge that drilling won't start to around August, September time

I think you just have to think what is fair value and buy at that and adding below that is a bonus

[ze00052k] 18/7/2008 09:36

Where is this going to end?

[barrywhit] 15/7/2008 13:11

My pleasure baht.......the note makes good reading.....imo

[baht] 14/7/2008 11:35

Thanks guys for the combined efforts of getting the Jefferies notes accessible. Very helpful very informative.

Ta

Baht

[haydock] 14/7/2008 11:13

On the plus side, some m&a beginning?

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Imperial Energy Corporation Plc. confirmed in
response to press speculation that it has received a bid approach, but did not
name the potential bidder.
Earlier today, the Times of India reported Indian oil and gas explorer ONGC
was in talks to form an alliance with British rival Imperial, citing an unnamed
source.
At 8.42 a.m. Imperial Energy shares were up 202 at 974 pence.
[e-mail]
jrr

[haydock] 14/7/2008 09:32

Many thanks for the note, all very positive.
One small thing to watch however, MOG has been heavily sold down due to the large holding of Bear Sterns, being liquidated, or at least thats the bb feeling.
Notice Lehman in touble at the moment? They are listed in May as holding 7% of the stock.
This could be a short term negative with regards to the sp, which has so far held fairly steadily.If they are in the mixer everthing will go,including the kitchen sink at any price. Thats the Mog picture anyway.

[jimarilo] 12/7/2008 23:58

Nice one BW & RG very helpful

[barrywhit] 12/7/2008 13:45

Joe..........try that.....if it's ok i will add it to the header.......also i will do the same for the 2007 note..........



edit: added 2007 & 2008 Research Notes to the HEADER ABOVE.....

[joestalin] 12/7/2008 13:08

BW - put it on www.mediafire.com and then post a link to it.

[barrywhit] 12/7/2008 11:20

Morning All,

I have received a pdf of the latest Jefferies Research note from Gerry Harrison and can confirm all comments written by Tournesol are correct.....the trouble is i don't know how to attach it to the BB.........LOL

[baht] 10/7/2008 09:14

Tournesol Many thanks for the informative update.

[barrywhit] 09/7/2008 15:09

pr4w2b0y........cheers

[pr4w2b0y] 09/7/2008 14:49

barrywhit: its the fool board.

[tournesol] 09/7/2008 13:46

barry - got it - contact me via TMF if you want a copy

[barrywhit] 09/7/2008 11:59

Tournesol.......cheers

[tournesol] 09/7/2008 11:50

barry

sorry, no link, only got a paper copy

working on getting an electronic version - if I succeed, I'll get back to you

RG

[barrywhit] 09/7/2008 10:53

Tournesol,

Many thanks, very encouraging .......do you have a link, then i could add it to the header..........

[tournesol] 09/7/2008 09:38

Jefferies have issued a revised note - dated 12 may - I have obtained a copy and would say that it is well worth reading closely

provides a detailed update on drilling plans, assets and valuation

only 1 well is to be drilled this year for certain - other wells are imminent but are awaiting rigs and/or final decisions by partners

a well will spud in August on block 9/5b - a shallow well targeting 2 overlapping prospects - Eagle (42 million bbls) and Snake (22 million)

these are not the biggest of GPC's prospects - not even the biggest on block 9/5b - but they are the highest COS

> GPC has good quality 3D seismic as well as down-hole data from a previous dry hole at 9/5b-2

> Eagle shows an AVO anomaly which is supportive of hydrocarbon presence

> GPC has completed an electro-magnetic imaging survey using MTEM* and this shows an area of high resistivity corresponding with Eagle's interpreted structure and the AVO results. this is a new technique and is not 100% proven in the field, but it is promising

> a long cable 2D seismic line across eagle shows up a flat spot corresponding to the above

Taken together the above factors are interpreted as representing a chance of success (COS) = 50%

There are 4 other prospects on 9/5b as well as several leads. These are all higher risk than Eagle/Snake but in the event of success would be derisked and promoted in terms of prospectivity.

In addition to 9/5b, there are lots of other prospects, including....

16/8c Moby - marathon made a discovery in 1993, so one could regard the next well as an appraisal rather than an exploration well. The prospect size is small at 11 million bbls, but the COS is 60%

26/2 & 31/11 Diamant - very large gas prospect which is in a block awarded in 02/2008, so not included in the previous jeffereies note

J have revisited their previous valuation. Based on Eagle, Snake and Moby plus 9/9e-A and 9/14c-A - all expected to be drilled within 18 months - they calculate a valuation of 108p risked and 463p unrisked.

Those figures exclude all of the assets which are not looking like being drilled within the 18 month timeframe.

These numbers assume a farm-out of 25% of Snake/eagle but do not include any value for the consideration paid by the farm-inee.

More info to follow when I have time

RG

[joestalin] 08/7/2008 14:12

I agree with the last comment.

GPC probably affected by a forced seller. I don't buy the conspiracy theory.

[baht] 08/7/2008 14:10

Don't quite agree with you JoeS. Yes market volatility is effecting all stocks but GPC shares have not been moving on a similar line to the market over the last few months. Different games going on here I think but medium to long term this is going up I believe.

Tournesol Well done. This is one of a couple of Doz shares I would like to be buying at current prices but funds don't allow.

No more boom or bust! Resign Gordon Brown.