Genel Energy Share Discussion Threads

[cyan] 30/1/2018 15:40

carla130 Jan '18 - 15:28 - 23729 of 23729 (Filtered)

Incredible, carla1 turns up and look at the share price reaction. Its spooky

[cyan] 30/1/2018 11:52

Small positive steps are being made in the Erbil/Baghdad relationship;

'Iraq sends $210 million to Kurdistan for salaries'



Brent has been softer at $69.28.

[pogue] 29/1/2018 17:17

I must admit I hope I am wrong the high oil price gives me more employment I can drive to if it drops again I need to get a plane to get a job.

[dmore2] 29/1/2018 17:03

well by May we will find out! when the saudi's flooded the market with oil, they where producing about 10.5mbpd. The oil infrastructure inplace couldnt handle any more, also there have been claims that oil fields have been damaged, lowering reservoir reserves.
Lets see what the yanks can do! I will believe it when I see it as they say.

[hawkey2] 29/1/2018 16:54

Some good discuss and thoughts.

There is a lot of debt with most shale companies and many have allegedly took the cheaper low hanging fruit. Venezuela is a basket case in which anything could happen. A lot of the older field are getting tired and more expensive to produce from.

My thoughts are that Opec and Russia will definitely cut a deal to keep the production where it is. Mainly for the reasons dmore2 has stated but mostly for Saudi oil company sell off this year.

We shall see.

Not to bad a day considering all things.

Hawkey

[dmore2] 29/1/2018 16:34

The oil market is 100m barrels a day, us produces 9.85mbpd, opec 35mbpd, russia 11mbpd. Opec and russia control half the market and can fudge the price to be what they want. Even a school boy can work out do I want 50$ for 10mbpd or 100$ for 8mbpd.
US shale is #fakenews designed to suppress the market, EIA and CIA in cahoots. Wont be long before everyone realises shale cant fill supply gap.

[cyan] 29/1/2018 12:52

I am not particularly worried by smallish corrections in the markets; its what OPEC does that will influence a lot more.

I am reassured by the Saudi oil ministers comments on sustaining the production cuts through 2018.

Our monthly income should increase this year as higher POO works through.
GENL's overall production guidance for 2018 was that it would be very similar to the last quarter 2017.

Extracts from update;

"-- $263 million of cash proceeds were received in 2017 ($207 million in 2016), of which $72 million was received in Q4
- Combined net production from the Tawke and Taq Taq PSCs during 2018 is expected to be close to Q4 2017 levels "

I am expecting earnings per quarter to be at least $80 million.

Our market cap now is around $520 million USD. With 2018 cash proceeds of maybe $320 million plus we are good value.

Gas is the big story to come, we hope.

Brent $70.09

[topazfrenzy] 29/1/2018 10:58

I'm not talking of a bear market but of a 5% to 10% correction, which would definitely rattle people seeing how little volatility there's been.

I'd like to think we are cushioned with GENL with cash flowing in ...

[d1nga] 29/1/2018 10:15

this bull run will continue for a while yet , the bears have been groaning about a correction for the past 18 mths , they were wrong then and they're wrong now (maybe they'll be right in a couple of years?)

[cyan] 29/1/2018 10:03

Great question topazfrenzy which is incredibly difficult to answer. A market correction does not appear to be imminent . Trump's actions have in fact lifted the stock market.

Some comment;



'Economists say Trump might be boosting economic growth but overstates his role'

Extract;

"The wealth effect through the stock market presents a better case for the president's claims. The market shot up when he was elected and has continued to gain since then. A rule of thumb is that every dollar of stock gains produces five cents of additional spending. Macro Advisors suggests that's about $130 billion of spending over the course of a year, or perhaps a quarter point to GDP over the course of a year. That positive wealth effect will continue to boost growth in the third quarter."

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For us high oil prices in the short term,imo, are dependant on OPEC keeping production numbers cuts in place.

Longer term GENL should be a little less vulnerable to wild movements in POO as the gas revenues (fingers crossed) promise to become the greater part of the business.

With contracts signed on supply to processing at $1.20 per thousand cubic feet the company has a more predictable revenue stream in the longer term, imo.

Brent $70.20

[topazfrenzy] 29/1/2018 09:17

Any thoughts of what may happen here in case of a general market correction, long overdue as we all know.

[gregpeck7] 29/1/2018 08:05

Pogie has been discredited with his 500,000 nuts so calls in 'super stan' for backup and hopes we all forget his gas plant cost assertions. Next stop 140 chaps. Hopefully pogie is Bhutan's the dips.

[gregpeck7] 29/1/2018 07:58

L2 looking good. Higher open.

[pogue] 28/1/2018 21:56

cyan
Saudi is not going to try and destroy shale by over production as the Aramco float is this year they dont have time to try that again and it will cut their float price. Shale will drop the price a little but the price is not so high so over production by them will cut their own throats. It does appear they have not learnt the lesson of last time.

[panagos] 27/1/2018 18:09

Do we have a Pogue / Stan / carla special this weekend?

The end is nigh!

[gregpeck7] 27/1/2018 15:13

Shock horror, pogue expects it to be a 'hard bargain' 'tough' etc etc. Back in the real world what business does not come into that category. Pogue welcome to the world where everyone looks after themselves. Shock horror rosneft will look to extract the maximum. You really are insightful today.

[cyan] 27/1/2018 15:09

Maybe the Saudi's are a bit more realistic these days and will not follow their previous catastrophic course of trying to destroy shale by undercutting on price. That failed.



"Saudi Oil Minister Tired Of Shale Hype"

"Still, al-Falih expressed resolve, stating that it would be “very unlikely” that the OPEC/non-OPEC coalition would abandon their production cuts at their upcoming meeting in June."

Stable oil prices through 2018 of $70 plus would suit me ok.

[cyan] 27/1/2018 13:53

This is the most interesting line from the update regarding 'partners';

"The Company will continue to build momentum behind the development of Bina Bawi and Miran, and will continue engagement with potential farm-in partners for upstream participation at an optimal time to secure maximum value for Genel shareholders"

The gas project will be huge enterprise and its not unreasonable to theorise that a number of companies could be involved as 'partners'

This line interests me;

"....will continue engagement with potential farm-in partners for upstream participation at an optimal time to secure maximum value for Genel shareholders"

Why mention 'optimal time'? The line has an air of supreme confidence that the project will go ahead. My reading is that one or more potential partners MAY have have made a cheeky offer when things were looking really black here not so long back. Imo our smart management did not rush bite and are looking a better deal and are prepared to work harder , longer for better terms.

[pogue] 27/1/2018 12:04

Hawkeye
careful if there is only one bidder to be partner they can dictate terms and I expect Rosenef to drive a hard bargain. Better to hope for the deal to be done after the O&G assets are under Iraqi control probably more bidders will come out.