Genel Energy Share Discussion Threads

[hawkey2] 21/1/2018 18:15

So what have we got to look forward to this week. Well potentially:

Peshkibar 4 Spud
Tawke Monthly Payment
Trading Update. The free cash will be madness.
Somalialand 2D results.
Taq Taq drilling results.

Sssh....Dont talk about the Gas deal.

Hawkey

[d1nga] 21/1/2018 18:09

cyan now that isis are defeated the majors are rushing back in already

bp are back in the north Iraq fields just announced last week with a view to doubling production ,I was just talking yesterday to a bp production engineer who departed there 2 or 3 years ago due to isis, and the equipment they have is antiquated ,dangerous and not up to the task , in a couple of years this will be sorted and its looking more likely the extra pipeline mentioned by baghdad recently will be required and will be laid , the strange thing he did mention was that bp were committed to the oil contract but shell has/had the gas contract which seemed strange to me , also most of the gas was flared due to poor compressor reliability

[nicksig] 21/1/2018 18:01

Not sure how they make that cash generation prediction Hawkey without knowing a) the ongoing price of poo; b) what Pesh will add in due course; c) how Taq Taq will fare

[cyan] 21/1/2018 17:59

At least one major thinks its worth getting back into Kurdistan NOW;



Imo the political risks to GENL are , to a certain extent, mitigated by the substantial Turkish holdings in the company.

[dmore2] 21/1/2018 17:48

when they start to pay dividends, all that wont matter any more

[cumnor] 21/1/2018 17:45

I hold these-just 10000-but the big negative here has nothing to do with cash generation, reserves or production. It is whether they will be allowed to keep the cash, oil or gas or, on a whim-get thrown out of the country, which is a possibility given where their main assets are. The issue here is political-add Turkey and Iran to the mix-not economic. Were it just the latter the share price would be way north of £15. Wont add for that reason-would like to-but hope the politics with Iraq get sorted and some of ye make a fortune because as a pure oil play it is way undervalued. imo.

[pogue] 21/1/2018 12:59

Karateboy
It’s a definite win for Genl Iraq has much more stable finances that Kurdistan and there are too many countries not wanting Iraq to fail so it will be given every help to make the country stable, the latter point you make is the unknown. I was sceptical a while back but now I am swinging towards the PSCs being transferred over to the new regime, subject to showing respect to the new paymasters in the traditional way. The only point would be if the Iraqi government don't like the IOC or think they have gotten too good a deal for the assets something we will not know for a while but again showing respect in the usual manner would probably assuage fears, I think practicality will win over sadly though I am no expert on the Byzantine politics of the area and there are many ways I could be wrong.

[karateboy] 21/1/2018 12:33

I believe IOC in Kurdistan including Genl will benefit if oil exports are put under Central government control. Of course provided PSCs are recognised by central government.

[hawkey2] 21/1/2018 07:46

Hawkeys Sunday Musings

We received 139$ million dollars in the first half of the year of which 78$ million was free cash flow (before interest).

Question 1....Any thoughts about where this will be at end of year

Taq Taq 29w in the North flank was completed in November with the following results

"The well, which was drilled to a measured depth of 3,100 metres, encountered good quality oil bearing Cretaceous Shiranish and Kometan reservoirs. Six zones were subsequently tested over a 20 day period, with test rates of up to 6,400 bpd (40/64 inch choke) of 48£ API oil delivered from individual zones."

Management said it was early but they were optimistic of the potential the North Flank

Q2 Are we going to get an reserves increase in Taq Taq at some stage. Personally up to last few months I had written this one off.

DNO are drilling Tawke 44 and should be there about by now. DNO full year presentation 8th feb.

Q3 Will this be major news when announced. Due any day.

DNO have just taken on 10 yes 10 new exploration licences.

Q4 Surely with their funds and diversification isn't someone considering some kind of tie up. Look at the synergies,,,Kurdistan, Somalialand...etc

Peshkibar

"The Tawke licence partners are proceeding with fast track plans to commission an early production facility by year-end and complete installation of pipeline connections early in 2018 to allow ramp up of output at the Peshkabir field."

Q 5 Has the EPF been commissioned and is Peshkaber pudding in the next 2 weeks.

Just Old Hawkey waffling on a Sunday.........

Hawkey

[hawkey2] 21/1/2018 07:45

Courtesy of oiler on LSE

Oilprice and all the other "experts" are single sourcing their news feeds and that means basically the same data is hashed about in a dozen different ways with the end result being as per the desired narrative. This is how the news works for everything these days, its how people as well as markets are controlled.

A couple of points to consider about this shale story,

1) its at its cheapest today and its BE is $60/bbl when "all" costs are considered,

2) highgrading applies to roughly 10% / 15% of the plays, and in the case of the permian its layered but again not endless, this is why permian is growing, but not infinitely,

3) the opec long game was to force shale into the highgrade, sweetspot and to expose the costs, hidden or not to investors while destroying companies and dare I say some peoples lives in the process,

4) many service providers in the industry in the US are still in the red even after this significant recovery and although it takes time to filter through the uptick so far in the prices is not yet feeding the supply chain. Do you wonder why?

5) whenever the price rise does feed into the supplychain the costs will all go up and the BE with it,

6) coupled with the fact that highgrading is a finite process, i suspect that the shale game has a very limited future in the overall energy picture. It will be in sharp decline by 2021/22 and what will they do then. Windmills and solar, i doubt it.

7) some say that the reason the shale industry is still operating is that there are huge debts to the banks that "shall" be paid, not a completely preposterous assessment in my opinion, were talking 100,s and 100,s of billions of dollars.

8) some are saying that there is an infrastructural problem now facing the growth in permian, so we will see quickly enough who is willing to factor those upfront costs into their business models considering that within 5 years there will not be a sweet spot in all of texas or new mexico.

9) shale is a short game, and an illusion of nondependency , if the US intends as it does to become independent from foreign oil it will be from the offshore drilling that just may start in the next 3 or 4 years, because even by some stretch that the US hits the magic 11mbod it will be a short lived achievement and opec know this now. I refer you back to point 3 above. The arabs are not at all thick, they have been manouvering the oil industry since the 60/70,s.

In general I point to draws (and very big draws at a time of usual builds ) in us inventories which are the result of a finely callibrated approach from opec to their exports to the US market and a little bit related to pipeline issues with canada. I dont take articles regardless of source at face value, headlines like "explosion of production" and "opec are considering exiting early" are designed to sway the market, and someone is going to make money,

[hawkey2] 21/1/2018 07:45

So we have the first meeting between the Iraq PM and the KRG PM since September.

All starting to look positive but a long way to go yet.

hxxp://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/20012018

hxxp://www.rudaw.net/english/opinion/20012018

hxxp://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iran/20012018

hxxp://www.kurdistan24.net/en/news/a32eaf8c-8533-4848-8178-fb7f1865c3c2

Hawke

[hawkey2] 21/1/2018 07:44

So we have had the much awaited CPR. This is what it says on the site about the Gas.

"The development of the Miran and Bina Bawi assets has the potential to be transformational for Genel, and the Company is focused on demonstrating the value proposition to the industry and market. Genel has been central to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq£s development as an oil province, and we now look forward to playing the same role in the development of gas exports which will provide a huge boost to the KRG£s economy."

Just one thing. Miran is actually actually 2 part of one Gas field. Miran East and Miran West. However on the RNS it only mentioned Miran West.

Do we know anything about Miran East ???

hxxps://www.2b1stconsulting.com/genel-to-convert-miran-field-exploration-into-2-5-billion-project/.

hxxps://www.energy-pedia.com/news/iraq/heritage-oil-announces-miran-west-as-major-gas-field-discovery-in-kurdistan



Hawkey

[gregpeck7] 21/1/2018 00:06

Pogue just got his loser mate stan ( no relation to Eminem) to come in and join the double act. Whoever is paying you guys really needs to step out from Poundland.Keep buying the dips guys.

[newswseller] 20/1/2018 19:57

I think you care a lot really

[newswseller] 20/1/2018 19:55

How is over £2m PI volume? Just a bitter bitter old man

[newswseller] 20/1/2018 19:54

What a walter mitty, now he says he's long from 90p but forgets he already said he sold them.. let's not forget the $500k pipeline nuts or the gas being so acidic it is effectively worthless.. or payments being risky (two years of continuous payments)...

[newswseller] 20/1/2018 19:51

God your a bitter person..

[kulvinder] 20/1/2018 18:01

The key words are "development of which has yet to begin", they will want this share to be the star in 2018 as to get the necessary finance in place to develop the gas fields and construction of the associated pipe line, therefore the share price needs to rise in order to make it attractive to investors to enable GENL tap the market for the money needed to do this.

[cyan] 20/1/2018 15:58

Good afternoon gentlemen.

I thought it interesting that only Miran was mentioned . The proposed Rosneft gas pipeline was shown on the maps I have seen (mees) does show proposed pipelines from both Miran and Bina.
This article suggests the same; take off from both fields;




Extract;

"The KRG signed a Gas Sales Agreement with Turkey in 2013 to export an initial 4bcm/year to Turkey from 2017, rising to 10bcm/y by 2020. But, with no export infrastructure, exports won’t start until 2020. Moreover, exports were to come from Genel’s Miran and Bina Bawi fields, development of which has yet to begin. Khor Mor could however supply Turkey with 2.6 bcm/y and its gas is sweeter.

The Repsol-operated Topkhana and Kurdamir gas fields are located close to Khor Mor and could also contribute export volumes. Phase one development of the fields is slated to produce 150mn cfd (1.6bcm/y) and if a sales agreement were reached in the near future, production could begin by early-2020.

At Miran and Bina Bawi, Genel is looking to farm out a stake to a foreign partner – most likely Turkish – and “by the end of the year, we expect to be able to update on the progress of negotiations” (MEES, 4 August)."

[stansmith3] 20/1/2018 15:51

i really struggle with the people on this boardanything negative is just attacked quickly becoming personal the reason this share has such massive upside is because its risky, not because the market hasn't woke up to it, why is that so hard to accept?the volume was pish on friday, dont anyone kid themselves any differentAll the pre 8am calls were wrong, now we are on to next week i see...Anyway, lets hope it rises

[karateboy] 20/1/2018 15:23

To be fair payment is not a big risk anymore. Recent CPR is very welcome development on 2 grounds. One being 40% increase in gas reserves but more importantly one of condition for gas lift agreement (GLA) which needed to be met is met. If you read the GLA announced in Feb 2017, had the following conditions: Genl must satisfy few conditions before Feb 2018. One being CPR. That is done. Company hasn't told us what the others are. If these conditions were not met or not waivered by KRG by Feb 2018, Genl has 12 months to negotiate a new GLA. If KRG and Genl did not agree , gas licences could be taken away. If that happens , share price will be hammered. If KRG finds another company to develop the gas fields within 3 years of license taken away, Genl has the first refusal to take up 49% of the contract and provide necessary development finances pro rota. If KRG does not find anybody within that 3 Years then Genl will lose the gas field licences altogether. So I am really looking forward to 25th RNS for clarity of the above. That is my understanding . Any comments?