Genel Energy Share Discussion Threads

[nicksig] 30/1/2017 07:34

Three payments in a week. Things looking up

[losses] 30/1/2017 07:32

Genel Energy PLC Receipt of payment for KRI oil exportsSource: UK Regulatory (RNS & others)TIDMGENLRNS Number : 4159VGenel Energy PLC30 January 201730 January 2017Genel Energy plcReceipt of payment for KRI oil exports from Tawke fieldGenel Energy plc ('Genel') notes the announcement from DNO ASA, as operator of the Tawke field, that the Tawke field partners have received a payment of $8.41 million from the Kurdistan Regional Government as payment towards June 2016 crude oil deliveries to the export market from the Tawke field.The payment completes settlement of the total invoiced amount for June 2016 of $38.41 million, for which a partial payment of $30.00 million was received in August 2016.The payments will be shared pro-rata by DNO

[nicksig] 30/1/2017 07:20

Back payments starting to get sorted?

[wantmorethan24p] 30/1/2017 06:42

Stratford MP Mr Zahawi

he can expect a phone call from me today.

the man who shafted GKP shareholders.

[wantmorethan24p] 29/1/2017 22:28

good post mate

a bit bearish though.

[adh0] 29/1/2017 11:39

I have gone through the payments recieved since they resumed in Sept 15 to try to calculate what we can hope to achieve in relation to payments going forwards and at what oil price. I can conclude... It is complicated.

Not all the receipts have the same information, sometimes they say what period it relates to but not always, sometimes it says the average oil price used, sometimes not, sometimes a month has both fields paying, sometimes one, etc etc.

General conclusions...
The production levels of both fields is in decline, badly.
The worst is still to come, the oil price was considerably lower on average in Nov (the next invoiced amount due) than Oct so if/when it is recieved, it will be low.
The oil price has been for December on average higher than any other month this year so this will be key in determining how much a $1 rise in oil price will translate to how much current production pays and how quickly the back payments are made.

The back payments are (apparantly) at a rate of 5% Gross revenue from the fields. Using Tawke when the actual production was:
$17.9m back pay was $3.5
$33 ... $6.3
$26 ... $5.5
$30 ... $5.8

It is not exact but a rule of thumb is whatever the field produces there is 20% on top for the back payments. I hoped to be able to have enough data to work out from how much each month produced and the corresponding oil price and payments exactly how the ratio will change as the oil price climbs (if?) and whether payments will accelerate exponentially but this is not possible from what I have.

It might be possible after two months more payments though. So I have kept the spreadsheet and data.

Sorry in hindsight this post does not add much but basically I can understand why we were slow paid again (as far as the KRG were concerned the "real" cashflow through Dec to them was actually down even though oil price was up, it will be another month or so for that to show up. BUT given the (fairly alarming?) decline rates in production they need to stabilise and oil to stabilise above $50 for this to come out the other side (develop the gas etc).

I suspect (hope) that the oil decline was a little delibrate to show the KRG there are consequences to not paying the IOCs and now they are being the investment and flow rates will rise. Basically despite all the above though there is a SPF, the KRG paying. If that does not happen everything else is irrelevant.

[wantmorethan24p] 28/1/2017 20:31

do not sell.


strong hold.

[wantmorethan24p] 28/1/2017 20:31

you want to buy cheap...keep buying.





mbmiah28 Jan '17 - 20:12 - 14738 of 14740 0 0
Sell and move on everybody

[mbmiah] 28/1/2017 20:12

Sell and move on everybody

[wantmorethan24p] 28/1/2017 10:14

just got my hard copy of the annual report delivered for 2015..

gonna find out how much this incompetent management earn.

will report back later.

[jotoha2] 28/1/2017 10:06

wm24 , re quester , just goes to show how things change so quickly , just watch this play out once we have stability in payments , remember the insiders will want to flush out pi with their manipulation of the share price

[wantmorethan24p] 28/1/2017 09:46

they have no coveants..

give it me in black and white.

[wantmorethan24p] 28/1/2017 09:45

going more back in time..

[mr roper] 28/1/2017 08:27

They have 3 covenants

1) unrestricted liquidity greater than 75m bucks
2)net debt divided by ebitda must be less than 3 times
3) debt to equity ratio where debt must be no more than 40% of the total equity

[wantmorethan24p] 28/1/2017 08:14

have tweeted questor to tip agian at these cheap price 70p.

[wantmorethan24p] 28/1/2017 07:46

they do not have any convenants..its an unsecured debt.

[wantmorethan24p] 28/1/2017 07:45

old news but worth a read

[mr roper] 28/1/2017 07:01

The issue is more along the lines of does it break any covenants