Genel Energy Share Discussion Threads

[utrecht_00] 09/12/2016 11:00

24p- i suggest you calm down with the language. and stay off the stella for a few days.

[wantmorethan24p] 09/12/2016 10:50

just look at GPX (gone up bigtime over last week) ..thats basically risen because ASAAD forces are winning the battle in ALEPPO...

[utrecht_00] 09/12/2016 10:43

they are paying- ok 3 months behind but they are paying.

[mpclag] 09/12/2016 10:14

absolutely O&G-Problem is that investors mistrust KRG-they need to prove themselves now.

[oilandgas1] 09/12/2016 09:51

hxxp://mnr.krg.org/images/monthlyreports/EXPORTs/KRG_MNR_October_2016_Oil_Export_Report.pdf

[oilandgas1] 09/12/2016 09:51

Mpclag,

Building in what you are saying:
Production 19mn per month (614kbopd)
Say $10 increase in poo =$19m pcm or £2.28bn increase for the year (more than wiping out the cash deficit of 1bn)

Oil revenue for 0ct16 was at 39.32$ pb, so KRG likely be getting $50+ for Dec16 onwards.. 10$ increase, so KRG need to

A) manage 1$bn deficit downwards with continued reforms
B) increase oil production from 614kbipd towards 1bn bopd
C) allocate the 20 blocks ASAP
D) pay a snall back payment to DNO and Genl of say 30-50$m and other IOCs

[mpclag] 09/12/2016 09:45

I agree-I was talking about the market as a whole

[amaretto] 09/12/2016 09:40

I'm not so sure, level 2 is stacked on the offer side.

Everyone's confidence in this share is completely shot, only 165,000 traded so far today and 120,000 of those is a late recorded trade from yesterday.

I know what everyone is thinking; given the contrarian movement to POO and ALL the other oilies, is there something stinky that we';re not being told? I have absolutely no idea and continue to hold nervously.

I'm not sure the next break will be upwards....sadly.

[mpclag] 09/12/2016 09:25

market about to jump up

[amaretto] 09/12/2016 09:22

I'm the wrong person to speak to about specific numbers but clearly if POO is $60 rather than $40 then we're in a better position and the KRG are more able to pay us. Trouble is because we're still only seeing revenues for September, it'll be a while before we have clarity about payments with a higher POO.

All eyes on Vienna over the weekend. To be honest I'm glad the POO has dipped again, it gives the non-OPEC lot something to think about. $60 oil is tantalisingly close, will they do what's necessary to get it?

[mpclag] 09/12/2016 09:18

of course on top of the extra revenues are the expected budget savings that are planned. Should easily be able to pay IOC's even with the massive fraud that will take place

[wantmorethan24p] 09/12/2016 09:18

tree shake coming up.
hold on

[mpclag] 09/12/2016 09:15

Thats the main issue-agreed.

Trying to work out how this poo increase will clear the £1bn cashflow deficit.

From recollection only (please correct me)

Production 19mn per month
Say £10 increase in poo =£190mn per month or £2.28bn increase for the year (more than wiping out the cash defecit)

[wantmorethan24p] 09/12/2016 09:14

just think what one backpayment of say around $50m would do to the share price and confidence.

[amaretto] 09/12/2016 09:07

mcplag - The article certainly opened my eyes.I agree with you that there has been a lot of talk about all the things you mentioned ad these were brought up in the London Conference this week so clearly they have an inkling there is a problem are are belatedly doing something about it. Trouble is they've literally been saying the same things for years so investors are definitely looking for a bit more action and a little less talk. Time will tell.

Having said all that, I do expect payments to continue as they've got 20 blocks to attract investors to so they'd be foolish not to. The question is, will they be mere tokens or will we genuinely start to see some of the money owed coming back in larger payments. Who knows?

[wantmorethan24p] 09/12/2016 09:07

gulf keystone has had its share consoldation...


they are 130p to buy...


very interesting.
wander if the shorters will have a go there?

[mpclag] 09/12/2016 09:04

Here it is
hxxp://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/071220162

In January this year, we had a monthly operating deficit of over $460m per month.

Urgent austerity measures and a shift to direct oil exports have improved the Government’s immediate cash balance, while structural reforms have begun to tackle the longer-term challenge of transforming the public sector and promoting diversification of the Region’s economy.

However, Kurdistan continues to face an uphill battle to restore fiscal sustainability and restart economic growth.

The lack of financing has exacerbated the social pressures inherent in any crisis response, while scarce technical expertise imposes important hurdles to program design and implementation.

We have received very little financial support, and inadequate international assistance to deal with the humanitarian situation we have.

Early this year, we recognized the need for further austerity to close the gap between cash revenues and expenditures on a monthly basis.

We announced a new measure to withhold a significant percentage of government salaries, pensions and stipends—excluding Peshmarga and other security forces.

These cuts have been sustained since, reducing the average total monthly payment by more than one-third, from almost £600m to approximately £360m.

My Government has also moved to increase non-oil revenues by raising fees, penalties, water charges and electricity tariffs for industrial consumers; as well as by slashing petroleum product subsidies.

The overall result has been an 80% drop in the consolidated fiscal deficit—measured on a cash basis--from £4.7bn in 2014 to an estimated £1bn in 2016.

The austerity program and shift to direct oil sales have substantially narrowed the gap between monthly operating revenues and expenditures.

Still, we continued to struggle to pay monthly salaries, pensions and stipends on time—despite the measures taken to date.

Austerity is expected to continue in 2017 with the ultimate goal of generating an operating surplus in order to restore funding for critical public investments and over time to repay government debts, including advances from the banking system.

In partnership with the World Bank, we have prepared a comprehensive roadmap for structural reform in the Kurdistan region. Within that framework, we have focused on priority areas that include:

1. Institutional Modernization of our Ministry of Economy & Finance (MOEF) to equip the ministry to lead fiscal policymaking and become a driver for reform. The program covers five reform streams: macro-fiscal, customs, tax, public financial management (PFM), and IT infrastructure and services.


2. Biometric Registration of government employees, pensioners and other citizens receiving monthly stipends (e.g., students, families of martyrs).

Rightsizing government stands out as a long-term goal of the KRG’s reform program.

Biometric registration represents a first step down this road that answers the question: who are we paying and how much?
This will open the way to more complex questions of ‘why and to do what’ under subsequent civil service reforms.

The registration process—encompassing fingerprint scans, iris scans and facial recognition software—is now underway after an intensive start-up phase with a three-month window to complete.

After 2 weeks of actual operation, as of today we have registered over 200,000 government wage earners, so we are on track to meet our targets.

The result will be an Identity Management System that drives broader reform of government payroll, and eventually human resources.

Through this initiative, we will identify those who are unlawfully receiving more than one salary from the government, of which we likely have many.
We will also identify and eliminate ghost employees, of which we surely have many!

This will pave the way to subsequent e-payroll and e-payment systems that will further enhance administrative performance and transparency, as part of the ultimate objective of transitioning to modern e-government services in Kurdistan.

3. Our Electricity Sector Reform efforts currently underway is aimed at achieving financial sustainability and improving the quality of service, while greatly increasing private sector participation in distribution.

The government is pursuing a two-pronged strategy. The immediate goal is to cut costs and improve financial sustainability, while developing a medium-term reform plan in cooperation with the World Bank.

4. We recognize that enhancing government transparency and citizen engagement are key to building and sustaining popular support for our programs.

Governance is never a popularity contest, and this is particularly true in situations of crisis.

Popular support has to be earned through government actions that strengthen credibility and promote participation.

We are working to step up our citizen engagement and public communications efforts.

A cornerstone is the introduction of international audit of Kurdistan’s oil & gas operations.

Contracts with international auditors have now been signed and initial work is underway. The audits will cover oil exports, IOCs, and domestic company operations (e.g., local sales of crude and refined products).

[mpclag] 09/12/2016 08:57

Interesting article-I am fully aware that KRG have been planning for the last couple of years to reduce expenditure-mainly by stopping corruption-Theyve just introduced retina and fingerprint tech to prevent employees caliming upto 10x ghost salaries. Let's see what this does to the payrol!
Fuel subsidies also been cut and their massive bedget defecit has already come down dramatically-I think it was a speach at the London conference a few days ago that disclosed the dramatic deficit reduction taking place. I'll try to find it and post.

[wantmorethan24p] 09/12/2016 08:51

price check

genel energy bonds up 0.38%
genelenergy share price up 1.41%

dno up 1.61%

brent crude 54.28

[losses] 09/12/2016 08:47

Amaretto, exactly my point.

[wantmorethan24p] 09/12/2016 08:41

i think we will get a merger between dno and genel eventually or dno takeover genel.