Genel Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mr roper] 07/12/2016 10:51

hxxp://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/061220162


LONDON, UK – “You took the risk coming in,” the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) oil minister told the head of an oil company after he had complained of disappointments in the region’s oil industry.

“There have been some high profile misses and disappointments̶1; for international oil companies doing business in the Kurdistan Region since 2011, said Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani, Executive Chairman of DNO, speaking at the 6th Kurdistan-Iraq Oil and Gas Conference in London.

Optimism about the Kurdistan oil industry was high at the first conference in 2011, Mossavar-Rahmani said. That was when the Kurdistan Region announced its plan to independently export 1 million bpd (barrels per day) within five years.

But the expectations have not been realized, Mossavar-Rahmani pointed out.

“The success of the first international oil companies in Kurdistan, sometimes unfortunately exaggerated, had set off an oil rush,” he said. “But the geology turned out to be more complicated.”

That, combined with security concerns and the economic crisis in the Kurdistan Region “produced too much risk,” he said, adding that some companies gave up and left, while others have gone bust, despite their investments of billions of dollars.

Kurdish oil exports now stand at 550,000 bpd, 300,000 of which come from Kirkuk’s fields, according to Mossavar-Rahmani, far below expectations of 2011.

DNO, the first western oil company to begin operations in the Kurdistan Region, is hopeful that production can be increased but they cannot make further investments “without regular predictable payment from the Kurdistan Regional Government,” he warned.

Ashti Hawrami, Minister of Natural Resources for the KRG, acknowledged that they were 60 days late in making payments but added that the Kurdish government, under its financial constraints, is having difficulties making payments in general.

"I am 60 days late paying my Peshmerga so you are running at par with my Peshmergas,” Hawrami said. “So, be patient with us. We thank you for that. But there is no point to have to complain at every opportunity about our non-performance."

He told Mossavar-Rahmani that the oil companies had made the choice to open operations in the Kurdistan Region despite knowing the uncertainties.

"You took the risk coming in. There was no law and order. There was no constitution. You took the risk. There was no hell of a chance to take one barrel of oil out of the country,” he said. “But now you’re getting money, you’re getting payment.”

He added that if DNO felt they could not continue their operations in the region, "take your money elsewhere. I have no problem with that. I'm sure if you find better opportunities elsewhere, you go there."

With respect to the goal of exporting 1 million bpd, Hawrami said that figure had come from the oil companies. And now he is facing frequent questions from the Kurdish public, asking where is the oil. “We deserve the truth about our own potential because we plan,” he said.

Hawrami expressed disappointment that Mossavar-Rahmani had opted to make his concerns about the industry known so publicly without first discussing them with his ministry in private. He stressed that airing such grievances in a public forum is no one’s interest.

"I don't want messages going around, getting people off coming to Kurdistan. Kurdistan is open to business and we will succeed in that, in our objectives, as we succeeded when we invited you in."

Both Hawrami and Mossavar-Rahmani said that the potential for the Kurdish oil industry remains high. As evidence, Mossavar-Rahmani said that more oil wells are drilled in the United States every week than have been drilled in the Kurdistan Region in the past 100 years.

Hawrami said he is “confidentR21; that companies will continue to seek to do business in the Kurdistan Region despite the negative notes expressed in the conference.

[wantmorethan24p] 07/12/2016 10:50

Am proud of myself.this is the only share i own apart from equator exploration.


have done my extensive research and am happy.

£1 by xmas easily.

[w1ndjammer] 07/12/2016 10:50

24p

I would not put my £200k in GENL its in RDSB its that safe I only look in once a week just noticed I am up 48% plus I get paid my divi every quarter over 8% PA
The rest is in BP. only up 29%. over 8% divi

GENL is just a play thing its easier to take an objective view when you stand back it only costs me a fiver to deal sometimes I only hold for a couple of hours

After the reserves update in February I might take a more long term holding
If the ex BG. guy comes onboard, that might be another reason to buy.

just took a punt on a co that owns 17% of a license that Exxon is drilling right now could be a game changer if it comes in DYOR

WJ.

[dealer1972] 07/12/2016 10:43

I see Numis have reiterated their 180p buy note today

[wantmorethan24p] 07/12/2016 10:31

they talking about SECURITY today at the conference.

[cumnor] 07/12/2016 10:29

Plenty of Middle Eastern countries (not to mention African-looking for investment dollars-the KRG could find itself out on a limb if it continues to act like a cowboy outfit. Even Iran deemed more reliable partner? Let's hope not.

[wantmorethan24p] 07/12/2016 10:26

W1NDJAMMER7 Dec '16 - 10:17 - 11823 of 11825


the reason am sceptical of you is that you confuse me lot.
one minute your long and a long termer and the next minute you say you sold.i do not understand you half the time.


also am wandering if your a Bondholder because am sure you can easily afford a £200,000 investment as you are loaded.

[wantmorethan24p] 07/12/2016 10:24

Amaretto7 Dec '16 - 09:27 - 11818 of 11824

CHEERS

[ozzmosiz] 07/12/2016 10:19

buys now exceeding sells.

[losses] 07/12/2016 10:15

Oil can be $140... Genel notvgetting paid that's the problem... why are you lot blind to see this.

[amaretto] 07/12/2016 10:08

Top trader Andurand says Opec deal a turning point

Oil fund argues price will hit $70 a barrel in wake of first supply cut since 2008

December 6th

Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand has returned almost 15 per cent this year by betting on a recovery in oil prices and he forecasts the rally has further to run after Opec’s agreement last week to cut supplies.

The French founder of Andurand Capital, which has grown to be one of the world’s largest oil funds, returned 6.1 per cent in November as he positioned for crude’s rally and is up 14.4 per cent in the first eleven months, according to people familiar with the fund’s performance.

“Opec’s agreement was stronger than the market anticipated and with Russia joining [the deal] this has set the market up for further gains,” Mr Andurand said.

“It’s a real turning point for the market,” he added, forecasting oil would hit $70 a barrel early next year.

Since last week Brent, the international benchmark, has rallied by more than 15 per cent, on Monday hitting a year-high above $55 a barrel. Prices slipped on Tuesday, however, dropping below $54 a barrel.

Andurand Capital is one of the few large oil funds — alongside Andy Hall’s Astenbeck Capital Management — to survive a market crash that cooled investors’ willingness to back traders specialising in the sector.

Oil’s rebound in 2016 has helped rekindle interest, however, with funds under management at Andurand Capital more than doubling to $1.5bn, having started the year at $640m.

Mr Andurand first came to the attention of the oil industry in 2008 when his previous fund Blue Gold — run with British trader Dennis Crema — correctly called oil’s spike to close to $150 a barrel and its subsequent crash during the financial crisis.

After BlueGold shut he launched Andurand Capital in February 2013, returning 96.6 per cent since inception through big bets on oil.

After being vocally bearish on crude since mid-2014 the trader flipped positions at the start of this year as oil slipped below $30 a barrel.

“These prices are not sustainable for the next 4-5 years,” Mr Andurand said, arguing supplies were heading for a “structural deficit” because of the drop in investment.

The views of Mr Andurand and other big traders were sought by the Saudi delegation in Vienna the day before Opec’s meeting last week, the Financial Times reported, as the kingdom tried to get a steer on how the market would react in the event supply cut talks collapsed.

Opec eventually agreed cuts of more than 1m barrels a day, the first such deal since 2008.

Mr Andurand said Opec’s largest members believed global investment reductions — estimated at as much as $1tn — allowed them to cut output now without losing market share.

“Saudi Arabia saw the size of capex cuts and that the pipeline of new projects is well down for the coming years, so they were able to act now — unlike in 2014,” he said.

He said US shale output — whose rapid growth between 2010 and 2015 led Opec to first raise output to try and squeeze higher cost rivals — would not rebound fast, despite many producers squeezing down costs to operate in a world of $50 crude.

“Everyone points to the drop in costs for shale producers but that won’t last if the industry accelerates again,” Mr Andurand said, arguing US shale growth would be capped at about 300,000 b/d per year.

“Costs tend to follow oil prices, not the other way around.”

[wantmorethan24p] 07/12/2016 09:47

genel bond price unchanged

genel share price down 1.32%

dno share price down 0.96%

brent crude 54.12


also oilers (pmo,bp,ophr,tlwcne)are all up.


conclusion..

the more genel keeps falling the more cheaper it will look compared to its peers.

[wantmorethan24p] 07/12/2016 09:42

can you paste article cannot read it as its a subscription article.

[amaretto] 07/12/2016 09:27

Top trader Andurand says Opec deal a turning point

[cumnor] 07/12/2016 08:59

Cash at present equal to mrkt cap-assets 1bln+ -KRG unlikely to blow the chances of further inward investment and risk further instability even from their own people ((if they cant pay bills, hospitals etc-Baghdad would love it) and give others (plenty within Iraq, Turkey, Iran despise them and do not want an independent entity on their borders) by showing themselves to be a bunch of cowboys rather than a potential internationally recognized Government in waiting who can do deals with the likes of Glencore, Exxon etc. They have more to lose than DNO, Genl so I expect them play ball. PIs are naive, bond holders are not and the professionals know it. Mugs will sell at thhese prices-suits me fine. Bonds are the clue. imo

[cool hand kev] 07/12/2016 08:44

Which Xmas?

[utrecht_00] 07/12/2016 08:44

this is what makes a market one thinks 60p one things £1. I think that both targets are wholly reasonable, it could easily hit 60p or lower on bad news, but i think medium long term its could get to £2.

I suppose it all depends on entry price, if i was in at £3/4/5 or higher I'd be thinking it was a disaster. If you are in at 1/0.75 or lower then most of the risk has been stripped away and the potential is good.

[ozzmosiz] 07/12/2016 08:39

This won't be £1 before Xmas.

[wantmorethan24p] 07/12/2016 08:02

a blue start so far

[wantmorethan24p] 07/12/2016 07:58

£1 BEFORE CHRISTMAS

[ohdearohdearohdear] 07/12/2016 07:58

60p before Christmas.

[wantmorethan24p] 07/12/2016 07:56

hxxp://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/g/genel-energy-finance-ltd-7.5-2019



LIKE HAVE SAID I WILL BE WATCHING THE MOVEMENTS OF THE BONDS EVERYDAY.I THINK THEY ARE AN IMPORTANT INDICATOR.