Genel Energy Share Discussion Threads

[cyan] 11/8/2016 22:39

This article from yesterday is not cheerful;

"Mounting oil stockpiles set to keep prices lower"



On the very much brighter side; Brent now $45.94

[hawkey2] 11/8/2016 22:11

Courtesy tomthebomb on iii

Crude Production to Fall Behind Demand

The world’s production of crude oil is falling behind demand, the International Energy Agency said Thursday.

From July through September, global production of crude oil will lag behind demand by almost 1 million barrels a day, said the IEA, a Paris-based agency that monitors energy trends for oil-consuming nations. And the oversupply of crude is clearing out even as OPEC producers pump at record or near record levels.

“Our balances show essentially no oversupply during the second half of the year,” the IEA’s monthly report said Thursday.

The prediction eliminates a central truth of the oil market for the past two years, when oil prices collapsed because of a flood of new crude supplies from places like the U.S. and Canada and ramped up production in traditional producers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Prices this year fell as low as $27 a barrel, a 13-year low and down from a peak of $114 a barrel in June 2014.

Two factors have caused the glut to disappear: Deep output cuts by producers outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel, and healthy global demand for crude oil, the IEA said. In North and South America alone, crude production is projected to fall by 700,000 barrels a day in the third quarter of 2016, compared with the first quarter, according to the IEA.

The easing of the oversupply has yet to bolster oil prices, which rose on Thursday in response to a separate but related piece of news: Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid al-Falih said his country was ready to take action to support the oil market.

Mr. Falih said market forces like supply and demand were already rebalancing, but Saudi Arabia would discuss with other producers next month if more action was necessary.

[golfhelicopter12345] 11/8/2016 21:59

I'm not convinced that SA/OPEC will change direction and concede market share to support the oil price in September, but the fact that SA are now talking about a higher oil price as desirable is a distint change in message. This alone will be supprtive. Any cut in production from here (market just about in balance, but with a stock overhang) could drive price quite a bit higher.

@Hawkey2 - 10% cut from today's all-time high OPEC production would probably take us into $60-$80 range.

Where is GENL at $70 oil?

[hawkey2] 11/8/2016 20:33

Wouldn't you.........

So Saudi Arabia are now producing at record levels. Record levels.

If it was you, would you now look for all Opec countries and yourself and say "Lets reduce production by say 10%" knowing that you personally are producing at record levels.

Wouldn't you.......

Hawkey.................

[golfhelicopter12345] 11/8/2016 18:59

I've bought today at 97p, 98p and 101p, taking holding back up to a full weighting. With POO rising, the risk reward dynamic looks good. Last time we saw $50+ oil, these were nudging 140p.

At 100p, nothing in the share price for Gas. While this persists there will always be the possibility of a Bid, probably from Turkey.

Post GKP debt restructure, I think GENL will re-rate. Looks like the EV at GKP will be higher than GENL which I can't quite justify given GENL produce 50% more barrels of better quaility oil. Shaikan a monster, but needs a lot of CAPEX.

[tsmith2] 11/8/2016 17:47

POO up almost 5%

[tsmith2] 11/8/2016 16:27

More than decent turn around

[walloon3] 11/8/2016 16:22

little shakeout today by the looks of things

[tsmith2] 11/8/2016 15:53

Flat finish would mark good turn around

[tradesmarter] 11/8/2016 12:01

risk vs reward looks good at these levels

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[cyan] 11/8/2016 10:12

Not a very helpful report;

"Oil demand set to slow in 2017, says IEA"



However Brent is bouncing a bit from its lows today; now $43.81

[w1ndjammer] 11/8/2016 07:42

UPDATE 1 – UAE's Dana Gas reports flat Q2 net profit

11-08-2016 07:01



•Q2 net profit $7 mln vs $7 mln year-ago
•Q2 revenues $96 mln vs $116 mln yr-ago
•Details payments from Egypt, Kurdistan
•More Kurdistan arbitration hearings due


Dana collected $42 million in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq during the first half, bringing total trade receivables outstanding there to $726 million, it said.

In 2007, Kurdistan awarded Dana and the UAE's Crescent Petroleum a 25-year deal to develop the Khor Mor and Chemchamal gas fields. Austria's OMV and Hungary's MOL subsequently each took 10 percent of the venture.

But the project became entangled in allegations that the consortium had been underpaid for condensate and liquefied petroleum gas products supplied from Khor Mor.

Dana said on Thursday that the London Court of Arbitration would hear remaining contractual issues related to Kurdistan and further damage claims from the consortium and counter-claims by the Kurdistan Regional Government in two further hearings.

The first two-week hearing is set for Sept. 5 and the other is yet to be scheduled, but is expected to be in either the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of 2017, the company added.

[jotoha2] 10/8/2016 10:05

They are making the best of a bad situation, until the KRG become reliant on the operators then the company has to accept the game that's being played, look at Egypt and COP ,utter disgrace being ripped of by these cowboys.

[orinocor] 10/8/2016 09:29

So the KRG are paying late and making only partial payments now. I'm completely out now.

I'd have held on but GENL paying $100 million in capital expenditure this year was the last straw. The KRG pay us some cash and we just plough it back in. If the KRG expect their IOC's to cough up this amount of money into helping their economy the least they can do is pay up the full amount and on time!

[seguna43] 09/8/2016 14:44

there was a N trade with a price of 178p just a minute ago - what was that? for a moment I thought there were fireworks or some takeover!! A bit of a false dawn ;(

[lydnem] 09/8/2016 13:20

Another master play by upwego aka chrisoil

www.shareprophets.com/views/22754/antrim-energy-shares-surge-as-criminal-chris-oil-pals-bail

Has he ever got anything right?

[hawkey2] 09/8/2016 11:34

Marketh126,

Big expectations here. A company worth over 2$ billion for its assets not including its gas, trading at below cash in bank.

Over400$ million in bank.
Low debt.
Over 400$ to be paid back within the next 3 years.
World class Gas assets about to get started.
Highly regarded and proven management team.
One of the cheapest production cost in the world.

Whats not to like..............

[markth126] 09/8/2016 11:00

Realistic expectations here or are we hovering around here for a good while

[dalailama] 09/8/2016 10:38

A few wee more for me then that's it. Plenty of SOU as well. Now come on GENL posterior into gear!

[cyan] 09/8/2016 10:04

Definition of numpty in English:

"A stupid or ineffectual person".

Thanks for that thoughtful post Amaretto; now, where do I find that filter button? doh!

Brent now $45.27.

[amaretto] 09/8/2016 09:34

Anyone heard of the filter button?

The only thing I've read on here of late is numpties replying to another numpty. It's obvious he backs a certain view depending on whether he's long or short without presenting a rational argument so just filter him and this BB can return to a useful source of info and views.

[lydnem] 09/8/2016 09:13

Im amazed upwego aka Chrisoil has the front to show his face on here given his excellent record of getting everything totally wrong. !