Genel Energy Share Discussion Threads

[stansmith3] 20/7/2016 14:33

or a position poster with a reputation for suchyou are well known on these boards

[sparky333] 20/7/2016 14:31

Lol the nutters are out

[ny boy] 20/7/2016 14:31

Just a realist can't see many of these tiddlers serviving.

[cool hand kev] 20/7/2016 14:28

That's a bit harsh. But back under a £1 soon

[ny boy] 20/7/2016 14:26

Can't see this surviving, heading for penny status by year end, dead cat bounces along the way though.

[stansmith3] 20/7/2016 14:19

the recent leg up 85->130+ wasnt just the poo but also with gkps troubles and speculation that genel may get some of their assets through a deal with the krginteresting downwards action since gkps situation became a little more clear (although evidently not to those buying at 5p and more)

[bulltradept] 20/7/2016 14:19

Is GENL share price now starting to price in geo political risks, more than before onw wonders?

[cyan] 20/7/2016 13:02

Good afternoon Sparky333.
The US government will release their numbers on inventories late in the day. No huge surprises expected.
Brent is treading water, bobbing around $46.65.
The GKP story fascinates. There is a theoretical case to argue they are a buy; not one for me . TW has again been predicting a GKP retreat back to a penny. Will he be right?

[sparky333] 20/7/2016 12:50

This is getting silly now MC back to £300m

[alamaison] 20/7/2016 11:38

Want to make some money?

Check MAYA (floated in May) today new contract $10m and a $22m contract recently too.


Value @ 1/3 of the turnover, lol.

Absolutely mad...
Compare value against other company:

[cyan] 20/7/2016 09:44

Brent steady at $46.67.

An oil article from this mornings Bloomberg

"Oil Halts Slide Near $45 as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Seen Declining "



I see GKP is holding fairly steady. Rather risky buy. You have to be certain of a generous bid post restructuring. Even then any profits would be rather modest.

[cyan] 19/7/2016 15:28

Yes, more than one of us spotted that typo. I hope the ST had the right number.

Brent $46.94

[dmore2] 19/7/2016 15:23

400,000 barrels a day is Bullsh1t, i've just looked on the GKP website its 40,000 and 15Million dollar payment each month DYOR

[cyan] 19/7/2016 14:50

Trying to be a much more accurate. I work it out that if you paid 7.5p for GKP shares you will need an offer of $873.89 m USD to break even. A billion would give you a modest profit.

The crucial questions are; what is GKP really worth, and will someone bid sensibly?.

[cyan] 19/7/2016 14:20

If you paid 7.5p per share and bought the offer shares your average is 2.893p. In THAT case you lose and need an offer higher than $750m.

Did say I was making rough calculations and our exchange rate has moved a bit lol.

I see GKP is about 6p now so the holding would average to 2.42p.

Every ones got to hope there's a bid. A lot have bought as if its certain it seems.

[cyan] 19/7/2016 14:11

At $750m with 23 billion shares; works out at 3.26 cents per share. At current exchange rates that's 2.5p per share.

Say you bought at 5p then bought your offer shares at 0.082p. Your 'average' is
2.115p per share. Edit. Yes you do win
My terrible maths.

[phillis] 19/7/2016 14:00

The better answer is that the Bondholders are giving up $500m of net debt in exchange for shares
Add to that the current m/cap of say $55m and $25 of new money gets you to say $580m
If there is going to be a bid then a 30% premium gets you to about $750m

[cyan] 19/7/2016 13:11

The issues are; post restructuring will there be a bid?
and,what will that bid value GKP with 23 billion shares and $100m debt.

My very rough calculations were made based what people were paying NOW for GKP and what sort of bid would cover their investment and maybe make a small profit.
Hence , I think they need a $1billion dollar bid.

If no bid emerges then its going to be depressing short term and everyone's playing a long game again.

[phillis] 19/7/2016 13:01

issuing zillions of new shares for nothing doesnt increase the market cap

[cyan] 19/7/2016 12:54

Lol, Sparky wins the star prize. Hope no-one bought GKP based on 400k!!!

[sparky333] 19/7/2016 12:53

Wow 400k per day, impressive !!!!!

[cyan] 19/7/2016 12:53

Hi phillis . Try one divided by twenty three. 4.34 US cents per share . I did say its very rough, lol

[cyan] 19/7/2016 12:45

Brent on the up ; $47.19, nice.

Back to GKP. I read that the rise there may have been prompted by A Sunday times article. Have not read it and am not paying for the "privilege"
However this link summaries what was written;



Spot the typo. Hope that error was not in the ST too!

[phillis] 19/7/2016 12:42

yes I know all that
but how do you get to $1 billion?

[cyan] 19/7/2016 12:12

The bondholders are taking equity for debt. They will what to recover some of their 'investment' in GKP.
GKP could have gone bust without this restructuring. To save some of their position the bondholders have taken a haircut.
When restructured there's going to be an awful lot of shares which I suspect those bond holders will want to sell and get their dosh back.
No-one , imo, will bid prior to restructure. The RNS shows that no-one (18 numbered) came up with anything credible before this desperate solution to stave off insolvency.

After , is a different case. Debt will have been reduced to $100m. GKP will look a better 'value' to bid for.

This is the gamble which has lead to the rise, imo. If there' s a decent post restructure bid, people will make money. It had better be quick though.

Brent $46.85