Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Geiger Counter Limited LSE:GCL London Ordinary Share GB00B15FW330 ORD NPV
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.25 -1.67% 14.75 14.30 15.20 15.00 14.75 15.00 146,900 14:48:46
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Nonequity Investment Instruments 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 - 12

Geiger Counter Share Discussion Threads

Showing 2601 to 2624 of 2875 messages
Chat Pages: 115  114  113  112  111  110  109  108  107  106  105  104  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
01/2/2019
16:40
@ makeamillion - cost of production is above $50-60/lb. Really? KAP is profitable around $20. BKY in Spain even lower (if/when it can actually produce). The whole point about buying miners over metal is the gearing: successful ones will make levered gains over the price, unsuccessful ones won't be able to afford the capex. So an IT of U miners needs to do the right stock picks, and buying GCL is an act of trust that they will deliver that. Maybe yes, maybe no. For myself, I've a big holding in YCA (which won't deliver geared returns) and a smaller one in KAP (which probably will but has a political angle).
jonwig
01/2/2019
16:28
Unfortunately GCL has very very little liquidity & volume, I have held these but when I noticed the high fees and additional performance fee I took what little profit I had and remain in the only global USA ETF URA. I also hold these in a SIPP. I have held URA for a few years, as well as numerous U stocks. I have also received (except last year) very good dividends and the fees are only 0.69% from the fund per year. IMO contrary to many who have been critical of URA rebalancing their portfolio over the last year they are now much more attractive to institutional and private investors.. They hold 60% of U Miners, explorers and physical holders of U308 and the remaining 40% is with Nuclear industry such as reactor manufacturers who have actually performed very well. To give the ETF a lower risk profile they also have 4.8% in Gold. When investor sentiment comes back which again in IMHO will be soon especially with s232 progress to be announced by April 2019 and whatever the result utilities worldwide have not been buying awaiting the result...that is why the Spot Price has gone up circa 40% leaving behind U companies which is almost unheard of. Spot Prices have to rise at least to cost of production which is north of $50-$60 lb. Pretty much double where they are now! At those levels expect to see many shares at least 6-10 times current values. Research 2007 & 2011 spot price graphs of Uranium and individual stocks such as URA & those held by GCL. IMO at some point during 2019 the U sector will start to see share rises similar to 2007 / 2011 and the share graph will mirror those times...really its like a Bitcoin share price movement. This is a classic contrarian play and volatility can be significant rising exceptionally fast but also fall harder. There maybe a fortune to make, I certainly believe so but I am also reminded of a quote from Cornelius Vanderbilt "Any fool can make a fortune. It takes a man of genius to keep it after it's made" GLA
makeamillion1
01/2/2019
16:27
Everything cool. If you are happy with Geiger's performance, that's great. Go for it Good Luck. PS. TWO THINGS IN CLOSING:- 1. Cameco isn't the only one which is UP NexGen (WHERE GEIGER HOLDS 16% AND IS THEIR BIGGEST PORTFOLIO HOLDING) 30/1/16 C$ 1.61 Today C$2.25 UPLIFT + 40% 2. Please think carefully about what you just wrote about the pound being DOWN vs C$.:- " I don’t see you mentioning the £ is down 10% vs CAD where 90% of the fund is invested." This should be HIGHLY BENEFICIAL TO A FUND INVESTED MAINLY IN CAN. DOLLARS: SO EVEN WITH A MASSIVE 10% GAIN DUE TO FAVOURABLE CURRENCY MOVEMENTS, GEIGER STILL CAN'T DO BETTER THAN REMAIN FLAT OVER MORE THAN TWO YEARS. YOU SEE THE PICTURE DOESN'T STACK UP:- CAMECO + 60% NEXTGEN + 40% C$ +10% vs GBP GEIGER + ZERO%
quepassa
01/2/2019
15:52
Thanks for the updated model it looks very well thought out so thank you. With regards the fees, it was about paying brokerage fees, fx fees and the duty personally, but yeah I guess the fund will also invoke most of these also. My broker also doesn't offer many of the indices that the Uranium equities are listed. I don't think the vehicle is "cheap" but I don't believe the managers to be doing the wrong thing. I look at the portfolio and with the exception of I'd like more US exposure I can understand their thinking.
andyforster1
01/2/2019
15:43
Hang on. Yes. That's just it. Exactly. The one and the same. Cameco heavily influences the whole uranium sector just like Rio and BHP Billiton do in other mining sectors. They are the biggest and what they do - such as mothballing MacArthur and winning tax rulings- does indeed influence the whole market, with a magnified impact on themselves. Cameco is the bellwether. I don't think many would question that. Read this:- https://investinghaven.com/commodities-gold/cameco-bellwether-uranium-stock-gain-momentum/ And indeed , Cameco was of such importance to Geiger that for a long time it was right towards the top of Geiger's biggest investments (8.4% in 2016) until they unwisely and at the wrong time started to reduce their Cameco position. I could go on... Good Luck, I hope it works out for you. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
quepassa
01/2/2019
15:30
Hi Andy, >I like your calculations but I would question your fee structure. I’m sure you >wouldn’t be holding the same stocks for the whole 10 years and your projection >of a 500% uplift over that time goes against all the research that’s out there. The fee structure is one of the more concrete items in the calculation, looking at their KID appears to confirm it's currently in the 3+%/annum range. Not sure what you mean regarding not holding same stocks over the full period? possibly you mean additional(fx/brokerage) fees, though Geiger would have the same problem. I guess I could have to pay tax on any forced sales (takeovers) if not in ISA. I agree with the 500% being sooner rather than later, I just randomly selected it. If condense it to 5yrs, the forecast doesn't get any better. In fact, the performance fee can be seen as obscene (I've checked their listing docs, and there doesn't appear to be a cap on it). Amount £100,0005yr Ret 500% (Ret/Yr=37.97%)Geiger Prem 12.65%Fee 1.38% Perf Fee 5.99% (20% of amount over 8%) Yr 0 £87,350 £99,000Yr 1 £114,078 £136,593Yr 2 £148,984 £188,462Yr 3 £194,570 £260,026Yr 4 £254,105 £358,766Yr 5 £331,858 £495,000 I take your point about funding juniors etc. Likely their performance would be better but, after fees, they've a lot of ground to make up. My view is that it is a bit of a pain buying shares directly, only one of my brokers allows me to buy Canadian shares. The liquidity of some of the shares has also made buying them directly difficult with no online quotes/large spreads. Geiger is the easy option, but not cheap. -0x3F
0x3f
01/2/2019
15:12
Is this the same Cameco who won contracts to supply Bruce Power ?? The same who won a landmark tax ruling ?? The same Cameco that shutdown their biggest mine?? Oh yeah because that's the basis for what the whole sector should have done. Please. I'm not saying Cameco wouldn't have been a great investment but you cannot say it is the bellwether for the whole sector as it has had its own news lead rise.
andyforster1
01/2/2019
14:33
Under-researched, I don't think so......read this Any uranium fund should at least be expected to be able to keep pace with the sector bellwether which is Cameco and which is not some fly-by-night junior unranium miner. As at 30th. September - Percentage of Geiger Net Assets invested in Cameco 2016 8.4% 2017 6.0% 2018 4.7% September 30th prices for Cameco 2016 C$ 10.30 2017 C$ 12.05 2018 C$ 14.10 CURRENT CAMECO PRICE CS 15.92 BETWEEN 30/9/16 and NOW, CAMECO IS UP 55% (PLUS DIVIDENDS) BETWEEN 30/9/16 and NOW GEIGER IS FLAT. IT WAS 20p in SEP 2016 AND NOW STILL IS 20p. GEIGER SOLD circa 50% of THEIR CAMECO HOLDING AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME. CAMECO IS UP ALMOST 60% SINCE SEPTEMBER 2016 INCLUDING DIVIDENDS. GEIGER IS UP ABSOLUTELY ZERO. ZIPPO. MOSTLY DOWN TO POOR PERFORMANCE ON THEIR INVESTMENTS BUT SIGNIFICANTLY ABETTED BY TOO MUCH EQUITY ISSUANCE/DILUTION AND EXORBITANT FEES. There is no excuse for such jaw-dropping underperformance. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
quepassa
01/2/2019
14:08
I like your calculations but I would question your fee structure. I'm sure you wouldn't be holding the same stocks for the whole 10 years and your projection of a 500% uplift over that time goes against all the research that's out there. If this uranium cycle is going to fundamentally change, it's going to happen within the next two years. If this happens you can compress your 500% gains to within 5 years which seriously changes your fee forecast. Everyone's entitled to their opinion but hey ho. I like this vehicle for its ability to participate in funding the juniors and pre market companies whilst collecting warrants. DYOR and good luck
andyforster1
01/2/2019
14:00
High quality assets like NXE, DML and FCU all trading at the bottom of their ranges in this market is perplexing. I wouldn't blame the management team here I'd blame the URE etf for making a hash of its realignment project.
andyforster1
01/2/2019
13:52
Wow, some serious under researched people here. GCL holds Cameco shown in the yearly results. This is a uranium fund not a catch 1 stock that goes up 20% but buying the best in the sector of which there are few. To say an illiquid small cap might go up 40% is fine but how do you expect GCL to buy illiquid small caps with there purchasing power. Tell me, do you have access to placements to fund these juniors because there going to need it and GCL has that optionality. This is a one trade investment vehicle in the uranium space not a buy the next pump and dump stock that will do a discounted placement. Nobody's mentioned the KAP ipo that GCL participated in that's up 30%. If your after trading opportunities this isn't for you. If your after a longer term diversified investment vehicle then this is right for you.
andyforster1
31/1/2019
15:47
Absolutely. Much cheaper and more effective to buy direct. But the real rub is their appalling stock picking skills. They sell Cameco which goes + 50% They buy Berkeley which goes down - 50% They just don't know what they are doing except raping the fund for fees and expenses. All my other U3o8 investments have increased between 20 - 60% last year except GCL. Even newcomer Yellowcake has trounced GCL's bottom-drawer performance in just six months. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
quepassa
31/1/2019
15:30
With the premium and the significant fees, they get to keep quite a bit. With their top 5 or so holdings >50% of portfolio, it's quite tempting skip the premium/fees and buy direct. I had a quick go at trying to quantify the difference. My assumptions were: Amount £100,00010yr Ret 500% (Ret/Yr=17.46%)Geiger Prem 12.65% (???)Fees 1.38%Perf Fee 1.89% (20% of amount over 8%)XRate fee 1.00% I then came up with the following: Geiger DirectYr 0 £87,350 £99,000Yr 1 £99,745 £116,287Yr 2 £113,898 £136,593Yr 3 £130,059 £160,445Yr 4 £148,514 £188,462Yr 5 £169,588 £221,371Yr 6 £193,651 £260,026Yr 7 £221,129 £305,432Yr 8 £252,507 £358,766Yr 9 £288,336 £421,413Yr 10 £329,250 £495,000 Yr0 include Xrate fees for buying shares direct, and for Geiger Counter subtracts the premium. Geigers smaller holdings would probably outperform, so maybe their return would be better or maybe they stay on a premium after 10 years (so my initial amount wrong). All very approximate, but gives an idea - In this example the direct shares investment amount is 50% more! -0x3F
0x3f
31/1/2019
13:06
I agree dogberry. share price performance across the sector has been poor over the past year. I'm relaxed, and confident the returns will come. I'm back to breakeven here, but I won't be topping up. I'm happy with my current holding, and waiting patiently. I still like the simplicity of this vehicle, giving me exposure across the sector, without needing too much research. If they outperform the market, then i'm ok with letting them keep 8% of the outperformance.
bmcb5
31/1/2019
11:11
The time for U is coming but it may be at least a few weeks or so, yet. I like the holdings in GCL. Only a few quality U companies survive and the Fund holds these. NXE (NEXGEN) is a premier quality holding. URA is no longer purely a U fund. The Fund went into defensive mode with Cameco over the long term tax case that the court found in Cameco's favour, only for the CRA to appeal. There are golden crosses in CCJ, URG and UUU. If it takes place, Denison is a few weeks away from a golden cross. FCUUF is at the bottom of its channel with little or no meaningful downside left there. The Open Contracts for March is the largest for the entire year. So March is important and April seems also signficant. The PM sector is slowly beginning to break out and U is a few weeks or a month or so behind. Patience is needed here. BTW I added under the price today at 19.35p. All the U companies are bargains right now and do not reflect the price action in U.
dogberry202000
31/1/2019
08:56
An abysmal performance gieger counter. How much are we payin u? (rising tone of astonishment)
escapetohome
30/1/2019
15:25
Kenny, the NAV hasn't gone up primarily because of the fund's underperforming uranium investments. The fund managers are meant to be able to spot good uranium investments not a bunch of underperforming investments. They sold their holdings in Cameco 12 or 18 months ago. Timing on that disposal could not have been worse. A monkey throwing a dart could do better than Geiger in my opinion. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
quepassa
30/1/2019
14:38
Kenny, I assume you're aware of the peculiar situation of the Uranium market (ie. the price of metal and its relation to contracted supply)? If so, there is a huge wall of money waiting to enter the market, either towards spot metal or miners which could (according to the bulls) propel the better miners to multiples of their current prices. Whilst the bull case has been weakened because the breakout is late (sort of) or won't happen (possible) the current share price premium here is well-explained by the fundamentals. My own problem with GCL is what you're aware of - the opportunistic share issues at a premium and their charges. There are other and better ways to play the uranium market. (I hold YCA and KAP. But that's not a recommendation.)
jonwig
30/1/2019
13:45
bmcb5 - I agree. However, it places a cap on the share price upside equal to the various issue prices.
kenny
30/1/2019
12:42
Issuing shares at a premium to NAV is not dilutive to us though. With additional investment, the overall fund size increases at a slightly larger % than the number of shares. So actually it is a marginal benefit to us aiui
bmcb5
30/1/2019
11:24
It has not gone anywhere because a) overall NAV has not gone up in the last year, and b) the share price is trading above NAV, and c) the company has used the fact the share price trades above NAV to issue more shares, on more than one occasion.
kenny
30/1/2019
09:28
How can it be that Cameco is UP 50% over 12 months and that Geiger is FLAT over the same time-frame?? This is the most dire and terrible performance for a uranium fund in my view if it can't even come near to tracking the performance of the biggest quoted uranium producing company . Just what are these fund managers doing? Are they asleep at the wheel or just totally inept? I see no excuse for such dismal performance against a strong year for uranium prices. Geiger is BY FAR bottom of the pile of any of my uranium investments. Any and all views welcome. ALL IMO. DYOR. QP
quepassa
20/1/2019
19:27
Plenty of uranium commentators & companies presenting at VRIC. Looking forward to seeing some of the coverage any maybe some interest in the equities this week. Fundamentals seem to be stacking up
andyforster1
12/1/2019
13:54
This is good page but it's not a chart. Prices for futures contracts including the number of contracts over 15 months are updated every day. hTTps://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/UX*0/all-futures Happy New Year everyone. Lets see (and hope) GCL makes new yearly highs by April.
dogberry202000
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