Geiger Counter Share Discussion Threads

[essential] 03/9/2019 08:04

Topped up at this level. Think the uranium cycle is turning.

[andyforster1] 02/9/2019 11:02

Important few weeks in the #Uranium space. WNA and the fuel report this week. 10th October = US working group deadline. 27th October = NEI International uranium fuel seminar. Plenty of utility purchase catalysts added to $CCJ 2019/20 purchase requirements should get this thing moving

[1solon] 02/9/2019 06:43

Good points by both Andy & 0x3f. I have used the 2 approaches for all reasons quoted. Only point I'd disagree with is holding for 5-10 year period (unless it takes that long to get going here - which I doubt) timing an exit will be equally as important as timing an entry if past performance is anything to go by - which I'm sure it will be.

[steve73] 02/9/2019 02:48

Thanks Brian, I've updated the header as per your info.....

[briannewby] 01/9/2019 17:16

Latest fact sheet (July 2019) shows the following top 5 holdings % - few changes from the info in the header:

1 Nexgen Energy 18.6
2 Denison Mines CAD 10.5
3 NAC Kazatomprom JSC 9.0
4 UR-Energy USD 8.2
5 Uranium Participation 7.2
Top 5 Holdings Represent 53.5

[andyforster1] 01/9/2019 17:10

You to. I've been pretty vocal about Q4 being the turning point for the equities. World recession fears have created the disconnect between the price of uranium and the equities. It's ultimately in an upward trend since October 2017 yet the equities make new 52 week lows. The inevitable US contracting cycle is weeks away and I can see it getting very exciting this side of xmas.

[0x3f] 01/9/2019 16:53

Good point about the high water mark being 40% away. Hopefully we'll get back to that level soon!

You're right, as a single shot diversified portfolio it's great fund, I was imperessed by the managers when I heard them speak.

I also appear unable to trade Australian shares, so I'm missing out on that large part of the market. As I see it, the main negative of selecting a handful of shares is that I risk the companies going bankrupt. Hopefully not, but it is a higher risk strategy compared to holding a larger spread of companies through Geiger Counter.

Anyway, all the best.

-0x3F

[andyforster1] 01/9/2019 16:33

I can 100% understand the frustration of fees. I just don't think it's the primary reason to invest or not. Im bullish GCL because it gives me a one Stop shot for multi geographic exposure that I cannot get through my broker (No Australian, No Kazatomprom etc). The Ability to participate in placements (warrants) and ultimately the experience of the management team. Good luck investing in what ever vehicles you use but I'm happy with my UK Uranium exposure here.

[andyforster1] 01/9/2019 16:27

To add to the short term credentials of GCL the NAV would have to exceed 21.68 to begin to accrue the 20% performance fee. That's a 40% return from today's NAV

[0x3f] 01/9/2019 16:26

OK, thanks Andy. The fund fees are more than the the 1.375% - that is just the managments fee, it doesn't include administrators fee / trading and (most importantly) performance fee. The modelled 4% doesn't see too far fetched to me, but anyway...

The key point is that the FX charge is a one off 1% (or rather, as you say, 2 one off 1%'s), whereas the funds fee is compounding year after year after year. My expectation was that the funds fees would come to hundreds of thousands of pounds over a 5-10 year holding period. I'd rather avoid that.

The other negative for me was that my U holdings aren't tax sheltered and I suspect this fund is classed as a non-reporting fund and didn't want to risk gains being taxed as income, but that's another story :)

-0x3F

[andyforster1] 01/9/2019 16:04

The 4% fee is modelled in the kid report. My point about fx trading is you pay 1% going in then 1% going out so needs to be taken into consideration when you see an annual management fee of 1.375% with no fx charge.

[0x3f] 01/9/2019 15:42

I don't understand the point you're trying to make. You're agreeing, around 1% FX fee seems standard. 1% is significantly less than the fund fees, recouped in 6 months or less.

Can't see any fee 'modelled' stuff in that doc, only the usual 1.375%/annum plus 20% of NAV increase over 8% hurdle. I've done the calculations myself and once the bull market gets going, the fees are going to be sizeable.

[andyforster1] 01/9/2019 14:33

Hargreaves lansdown fees = Foreign exchange chargeValue of trade FX chargeFirst £5,000 1.00%Next £5,000 0.75%Next £10,000 0.50%. I'm not saying everyone has 10's of thousands to invest but the ins and outs in foreign exchanges is expensive

[andyforster1] 01/9/2019 14:28

Take a look at the actual fees charged here vs estimated fees on a modelled basis. https://ncim.co.uk/wp/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Geiger-Counter-Limited-Pre-Investment-Disclosure-Document-July-2019.pdf

[0x3f] 01/9/2019 12:15

I think you're underestimating the effects of the fee's here. They are very high*.

FX charges are only around 1% for most brokers, whereas annual management fees here are currently stated as 4.3% in the KID.

>When this bull moves the premium to NAV will cancel out the performance fee

I calculated the fees to go to the 6% range, if this plays out as I expect. Compounding the fees at that rate is significant, and a one-off premium would need to be significant to compensate(eg 50%).

As you say, there are few options for UK investors & this may well outperform my holdings (fund managers seem v good, deep sector knowledge / private placements etc), so we'll see. I expect both options will make a lot of money :)

0x3f


* Regarding issuing shares, ideally that's that you would want (when at a premium) as would be a driver of returns. Also, a bigger fund could decrease the charges.

[andyforster1] 01/9/2019 10:49

With uk investors having only two solid places to play the Uranium market (here and yellow cake). This will be the go to vehicle for the traders who don't want the hassle of buying foreign stocks. When this bull moves the premium to NAV will cancel out the performance fee. Here's to monthly averaging in untill the inevitable contracting cycle kick in.

[andyforster1] 01/9/2019 10:45

I don't think you understand how the fund works. Stock is issued if the premium to NAV goes above 20%. The fees are not out of kilter to any other niche sector. I'd also point out that if you buy the underlying equities, you will be charged forex fees for buying in and selling out. In most instances those charges would be equal to the annual management fee. GCL also have the ability to participate in placements that most UK private investors would have no chance of taking.

[1solon] 31/8/2019 06:09

Yes, every single one of my U co's were up yesterday, some in the double digit %. Feels like a bottom, although a wider market sell off could see a further hit imo.Once supply / demand fundamentals take over, general market conditions, will play no part in what happens here. The lights need to stay on, even in a recession.More than comfortable being invested in the uranium sector.

[dogberry202000] 30/8/2019 23:53

There were some big up moves among North American uranium miners tonight with one minnow, Azincourt up around 83%!. Open interest for September is around 600 contracts, the most for some time.

[bonnard] 22/8/2019 08:04

Just bought@16.33.

[steve73] 22/8/2019 02:58

It looks as if I got "bored" out of these at exactly the low point at the end of last week.

I'll try to keep the header updated occasionally, as I am still retaining my Subscription Shares that I got free issue.

Good luck to the rest of you hanging on here.. I think long-term the Uranium sector will prosper, but I could forsee better short term opportunities for my small holding here.

[brugen] 21/8/2019 21:36

Kenny,

I think you've got management's approach to their customers about right although you missed out the level of the extortionate management fees.
On the other hand I don't know of another broad ranged vehicle which will enable me to invest in what I hope to be a coming bull market in Uranium.
So I despise the management but hold.

[kenny] 21/8/2019 16:38

I do not understand the point of investing in this fund.

I see two big negatives, namely:

1. It does not pay a dividend, and
2. Every time the share price goes up, the company issues tons of new shares.

The share price is well below where it was 5 years ago, so buying here just enriches the managers and maintains their ability to collect fees, year after year. The managers have no policy to control the discount to NAV via buybacks because that would reduce the size of the fund that they can collect fees on.

[dogberry202000] 20/8/2019 08:38

That's big news for the uranium market, Andy. And, out of the blue, too!