Geiger Counter Share Discussion Threads

[1solon] 08/11/2019 13:09

I'm on the same page Andy, I bought more the other day, curiously it showed up red as if it was a sell, no blue showing for a few days now.....not that I read anything into that.

[andyforster1] 08/11/2019 09:23

Small top up for me just now. I'll keep dripping in until Uranium takes off !!!!

[dogberry202000] 04/11/2019 23:17

That was a good buy today, makeamllion1, when some ran out of patience and jumped ship.

Seasonal strength should kick in between here and February.

[quepassa] 04/11/2019 20:59

Cameco now up almost 9% today.

Several others up 4-5%

[makeamillion1] 04/11/2019 15:18

Big week this week. NFWG due to report to POTUS 10th November so could be anytime or w/c 11th November. Cameco (CCJ) 3rd Quarter Earnings call was most positive I have heard in a long time. Transcript can be read here:



CCJ is relevant as it always seems to break out first and other U stocks follow. Today up over 5.8% so far.

GCL is well placed with top holdings, while GCL shares are down 3.1% today they always lag behind US / CAD U stocks so I could not resist buying more today.

I expect to see a significant increase in U stocks through the year end and IMO GCL will be a prime beneficiary.

DYOR Good luck

[1solon] 15/9/2019 10:28

For those that follow technical analysis

[1solon] 10/9/2019 13:56

I am looking to rebalance my portfolio in coming months, adding here & my individual U names. Definitely agree the downside risk from here can be stomached, knowing what the potential upside could be. The experience of sitting on my gold & silver holdings before they moved is serving me well here.

[andyforster1] 10/9/2019 12:47

I'lI continue to drip feed these £500 buys on top of my large holding. Downside risk vs the risk of not being able to buy in size when the market swings makes this my medium to long term strategy.

[chriswatts] 09/9/2019 10:17

Quepassa. Thanks for that full and informative reply.

[dogberry202000] 06/9/2019 21:11

The top holding was up around 9.5% in the US tonight. Others made useful gains, too.

[quepassa] 06/9/2019 19:42

They expire in November 2020.

There are two remaining dates when you can exercise the sub shares and convert them into GCL ordinary shares in

November 2019
and November 2020.

The price you can convert them to ordinary shares is :-

November 2019 - A price equating to the NAV as at 13/12/17 plus a premium of 10%
November 2020 - A price equating to the NAV as at 13/12/17 plus a premium of 20%

If memory serves correctly, the NAV in December 2017 was just over 24p BUT PLEASE VERIFY FOR YOURSELVES.

This would mean that sub share holders have the right to buy new ordinary shares in November this year for a price of around 26.5p and in November 2020 for around 29p.

You can today buy Geiger shares in the open market for around 17p.

You need to ask yourself if you think Geiger shares will be higher than 26.5p this November, or higher than 29p in November 2020. - Or whether you want to sell the sub shares now for 2p.

Please verify all details and prices for yourselves by checking the sub shares prospectus which is readily available on the ncim.co.uk/geiger-counter web pages.

The time value of the sub shares is eroding fast now. The intrinsic value of the sub shares is currently zero versus current market price of GCL ordinaries.

NO ADVICE IMPLIED OR INTENDED.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[chriswatts] 06/9/2019 18:41

Quepassa

Looks like you did well to get out at the highs. I'm guilty of ignoring mine,and have forgotten when they expire!

[quepassa] 06/9/2019 17:45

Subscription shares.

Holders of subscription shares (ticker GCS) need perhaps to have a close look at the current market price of these subscription shares and weigh up this market price against the strike price and the shortening remaining life of the subscription shares.

Consider their INTRINSIC VALUE currently (zero) and the remaining TIME VALUE versus today's price of GCL and the two remaining strike prices on the next two strike/conversion dates.

I sold all my holdings of sub shares a year ago at near 6p per share - and am very glad to have done so.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[andyforster1] 04/9/2019 11:10

Contracting cycle is showing early signs. Cameco secured a 25M l/b contract recently. The first US utility RFP came into the market in August and this demand only grows month on month. Cameco have substantial purchasing to do this calendar year and when the spot price starts to move expect the financial buyers like YCA to jump in to pressure the market. All gearing up for an interesting Q4. Watch this space

[essential] 03/9/2019 08:04

Topped up at this level. Think the uranium cycle is turning.

[andyforster1] 02/9/2019 11:02

Important few weeks in the #Uranium space. WNA and the fuel report this week. 10th October = US working group deadline. 27th October = NEI International uranium fuel seminar. Plenty of utility purchase catalysts added to $CCJ 2019/20 purchase requirements should get this thing moving

[1solon] 02/9/2019 06:43

Good points by both Andy & 0x3f. I have used the 2 approaches for all reasons quoted. Only point I'd disagree with is holding for 5-10 year period (unless it takes that long to get going here - which I doubt) timing an exit will be equally as important as timing an entry if past performance is anything to go by - which I'm sure it will be.

[steve73] 02/9/2019 02:48

Thanks Brian, I've updated the header as per your info.....

[briannewby] 01/9/2019 17:16

Latest fact sheet (July 2019) shows the following top 5 holdings % - few changes from the info in the header:

1 Nexgen Energy 18.6
2 Denison Mines CAD 10.5
3 NAC Kazatomprom JSC 9.0
4 UR-Energy USD 8.2
5 Uranium Participation 7.2
Top 5 Holdings Represent 53.5

[andyforster1] 01/9/2019 17:10

You to. I've been pretty vocal about Q4 being the turning point for the equities. World recession fears have created the disconnect between the price of uranium and the equities. It's ultimately in an upward trend since October 2017 yet the equities make new 52 week lows. The inevitable US contracting cycle is weeks away and I can see it getting very exciting this side of xmas.

[0x3f] 01/9/2019 16:53

Good point about the high water mark being 40% away. Hopefully we'll get back to that level soon!

You're right, as a single shot diversified portfolio it's great fund, I was imperessed by the managers when I heard them speak.

I also appear unable to trade Australian shares, so I'm missing out on that large part of the market. As I see it, the main negative of selecting a handful of shares is that I risk the companies going bankrupt. Hopefully not, but it is a higher risk strategy compared to holding a larger spread of companies through Geiger Counter.

Anyway, all the best.

-0x3F

[andyforster1] 01/9/2019 16:33

I can 100% understand the frustration of fees. I just don't think it's the primary reason to invest or not. Im bullish GCL because it gives me a one Stop shot for multi geographic exposure that I cannot get through my broker (No Australian, No Kazatomprom etc). The Ability to participate in placements (warrants) and ultimately the experience of the management team. Good luck investing in what ever vehicles you use but I'm happy with my UK Uranium exposure here.

[andyforster1] 01/9/2019 16:27

To add to the short term credentials of GCL the NAV would have to exceed 21.68 to begin to accrue the 20% performance fee. That's a 40% return from today's NAV

[0x3f] 01/9/2019 16:26

OK, thanks Andy. The fund fees are more than the the 1.375% - that is just the managments fee, it doesn't include administrators fee / trading and (most importantly) performance fee. The modelled 4% doesn't see too far fetched to me, but anyway...

The key point is that the FX charge is a one off 1% (or rather, as you say, 2 one off 1%'s), whereas the funds fee is compounding year after year after year. My expectation was that the funds fees would come to hundreds of thousands of pounds over a 5-10 year holding period. I'd rather avoid that.

The other negative for me was that my U holdings aren't tax sheltered and I suspect this fund is classed as a non-reporting fund and didn't want to risk gains being taxed as income, but that's another story :)

-0x3F