Geiger Counter Share Discussion Threads

[0x3f] 08/2/2019 17:19

Great interview, thanks. Very knowledgeable - liked that he went into some of the company specifics - Some of the other experts are less keen to share their insights.

[andyforster1] 08/2/2019 16:55

Great finish to the week and a great interview to digest over weekend. No better way to invest in the coming uranium bull run in the UK.

[richardjohn10] 08/2/2019 16:25

More days like today would be nice!

[the deacon] 08/2/2019 07:24

THE uranium market was turning around and this time it was for real after being depressed for the past decade during which price recoveries were predicted on several occasions but never materialised.That was the view from a panel discussion on uranium held at the Investing in African Mining Indaba taking place in Cape Town.According a presentation given by panel moderator Jonathan Guy, research director at Numis Securities, Numis is predicting a long-term uranium contract price of $60 per pound ($/lb) and a spot price of $50/lb, but the firm also pointed out that the "price rebound is likely to be more acute however, market tends to be shock catalyst driven."The uranium spot price currently sits around $29/lb to which level it has risen gradually over the past year from around $20/lb. That appears to have been largely the result of production cuts implemented by major uranium producers Kazatomprom and Cameco in 2017.According to Numis, the short-term market is still oversupplied and key short-term drivers will be further actions by Kazatomprom; Japanese nuclear power station restarts and aggressive Chinese contracting behaviour.Numis commented that the "long-term fundamentals remain positive and a key driver of price shift will be a return to contracting on the part of energy utilities."Asked what had changed this time around to improve confidence in this latest recovery prediction panel member Daniel Major, CEO of Goviex, replied, "the first thing is strong demand. Nuclear generation is now at the same level that it was pre-Fukushima."On the supply side you have a lot of projects closing down and you have the Kazatomprom and Cameco shutdowns which have effectively put the market into a deficit."The other item that has disappeared off the map is under-feeding." (under-feeding involves the re-enrichment of low-grade uranium tails assays to produce extra uranium)."That had resulted in the appearance of 20m to 30m lbs of new material that had not been mined out of the ground but was coming out of the uranium enrichment circuit."That meant you had two big mines that appeared from nowhere but actually did not exist."So, effectively, you have not only just seen production cuts but you have seen another production cut with that. The other thing that has changed is that the US government has stopped selling and they used to sell five million lbs/year."There was also an inventory overhang but now you have people like Yellow Cake (Yellow Cake Plc, a specialist company buying and storing uranium) sucking metal out of the market as well."So you have a massive tightening of inventory; demand growth and big supply cuts .  That's why you are going to see a difference this time," Major concluded.

[jonwig] 07/2/2019 14:26

So Miton have added ~156,000 for their Global Opps and WW opps funds.

[andyforster1] 07/2/2019 13:42

Uranium Market ImprovementFundamentals in the uranium market are continuing to improve as we have reported over the last two years. One of the primary drivers has been the market price remaining below most producer's production costs. While prices have strengthened, this disequilibrium persists and is likely to continue being a strong driver supporting much higher prices. A direct result of this factor has been significant production cuts, resulting in more than 30 million pounds of annual production removed from the market since 2016.In 2018, spot uranium prices rose about 20% year over year and more than 40% from last April. Record transaction volume of more than 88 million pounds was reported in the spot market, almost 60% percent greater than the previous record established in 2011. Producer buying has tripled since 2017 and the investment community has re-entered the market, taking large blocks of material out of circulation, enhancing the already bullish supply-demand picture.Global nuclear energy generation in 2018 returned to pre-Fukushima levels. Meanwhile, long-term contracting by utilities remained suppressed, reaching a six-year low in 2018. This adds to the tightening demand coil that should be released as older term contracts roll out of supplier and utility portfolios and inventory is drawn down. All these factors coupled with growing global demand bodes well for continued rebalancing and price appreciation in the uranium markets.

[andyforster1] 07/2/2019 13:04

Clear indication of what's to come. Institutional money coming in.

[andyforster1] 07/2/2019 13:03

Geiger Counter Ltd - Holding(s) in Company https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/7f23e00b-19bd-44b2-ad5f-feed048d4c0c

[andyforster1] 06/2/2019 21:16

In 2018 spot price rose 40% due to a number of factors, firstly YCA bought 8Ml/b, secondly Cameco bought to fulfill contracts and thirdly utilities are buying at spot as it's much cheaper than trying to negotiate long term contracts when miners are requiring $45 plus. This year Cameco have stated they are buying 12ML/b to satisfy contracts. YCA has an option to buy a further $100M and section 232 will have been formalised leaving the utilities safe in the knowledge of where they can buy their Uranium. Once this is known they can start to secure their 5-10 year contracts which will be at $50 plus. Aura has just signed a contract at $44 for 7/8 years. I believe spot price will rise its inevitable.

[richardjohn10] 06/2/2019 20:38

Even if that were the case gives more time to accumulate

[andyforster1] 06/2/2019 20:06

Interesting statement, would like to hear why you think this ???

[kiwimonk] 06/2/2019 20:03

12 months away from a big move in spot

[richardjohn10] 06/2/2019 19:22

Good readingAll pointing to big movementsI'll keep adding:)

[andyforster1] 06/2/2019 18:21

Some great in-depth research here with the uranium focus at the bottom

[andyforster1] 06/2/2019 18:04

I don't know how much people observe the charts but most of the sector is now well over bought so I'd imagine some stability is needed in the short term before we move higher. I've said it before but the real strong moves should come in March. These things aren't even trading at their 12 months high yet look at the fundamentals of Uranium. Kazatomprom maintaining supply discipline, Cameco closed its mines till sustainable contracting is available at $50 prices. Section 232 with possible $50-$80 contracts in the US. More reactors coming online, reactors lives being extended and large old mines coming offline in 2028. This is playing out perfectly so far.

[richardjohn10] 06/2/2019 17:50

I took a position today Andy and I'm looking forward to the next few months!

[andyforster1] 06/2/2019 16:53

As frustrating as today was with the volume, some of the miners could do with cooling off as they've had decent moves the last few days. As we churn out this stock the next move will be uninhabited. With news on 232 not expected till April I imagine we're going to be having much stronger moves in the coming weeks.

[andyforster1] 06/2/2019 15:00

Taken 10997 and 21200. They won't be able to keep a lid on it much longer.

[jonwig] 06/2/2019 14:41

I'm puzzled by the trades and quote.

All trades are marked 'O' so go through market makers.
There are only 83m shares in issue (it's a micro-cap!) and over 1m have been traded already today, almost all I'd suggest in one direction - ie. ADVFN's reporting looks about right.
Yet the price hardly moves.
Have they a tap, or a book surplus?
If so, that will close at some point.

Question: has anyone here sold recently, but their trade been reported as 'buy' by ADVFN?

PS - NAV increase semms timely, and anticipated here ... thanks Andy F!

[0x3f] 06/2/2019 14:15

NAV up over 5% from yesterday. Now trading around par.

[andyforster1] 06/2/2019 10:43

Completely agree, their will be some stale bulls on the way up but fundamentals will out over time. Just gutted I was buying heavy on the way down as I didn't think you'd be able to buy size on the way up.

[the deacon] 06/2/2019 10:19

Yup. It's the same model Sprott use when investing in the resource sector juniors that fit their criteria.

[bsharman3] 06/2/2019 10:13

I hold here and Yellowcake and have been following the Uranium story for about 18 months now. I think we are at the bottom but have to been patient!

[andyforster1] 06/2/2019 10:12

I meant to add that I wonder if GCL has taken part in any funding ??