Gan Share Discussion Threads

[mip55] 29/1/2019 23:12

The New York State Gaming Commission gave preliminary approval Monday to rules and regulations that would authorize sports wagering at four upstate casinos.The six-member commission did not discuss the topic before voting. The proposed rules and regulations will enter a 60-day public comment period before the commission can give final approval.

[mip55] 29/1/2019 15:34

Their target price unchanged since July!

[mip55] 29/1/2019 15:31

Liberum BUY .....target 85p according to their website

[igoe104] 29/1/2019 07:28

19 page note out, but can only access the summary.


LIBERUM: GAN* - US real-money paying off

GAN will launch new real-money services for existing clients this year across internet casino and sports betting. The pace of regulation is increasing which underpins forecasts and the long-term potential of GAN's B2B SaaS business mode

[noujay] 28/1/2019 11:23

On reflection and a carefully re-read I am surprised there has not been more pop after the TU. That said I would not be surprised if there is suddenly a jump up over the next couple of weeks.I can only ascribe it to the difficulty in drilling into the numbers to ascertain GAN share of revenue. This is almost impossible without a micro dissection client by client for real money and taking into account the differing services they provide to each customer.Will be very interested to see what Lib say when their latest note comes out.

[alan@bj] 27/1/2019 14:59

Yes, so did I initially. Got all excited, then found it was a non-story. Still, you never know....

[alan@bj] 27/1/2019 13:15

Well, not really mip - it actually says, "are believed to have discussed a merger late last year — although talks are no longer said to be ongoing."

[mip55] 27/1/2019 12:43

Sunday Times says PPBF and Stars Group, owner of SkyBet in merger talks

[mip55] 26/1/2019 17:02

The New York State Gaming Commission will meet to discuss proposed rules for regulated sports betting for the first time on Monday in Manhattan.Things have suddenly come together quickly for NY sports betting at the start of this new year. After eight months of inaction, Gov. Andrew Cuomo, last week, nudged the commission to move forward during his State of the State address:"We invested in upstate casinos. Let's authorize sports betting in the upstate casinos. It's here, it's a reality, and it will help generate activity in those casinos."

[noujay] 26/1/2019 09:57

Reports suggesting that DraftKings are doing good business via their newly introduced casino games in NJ even with limited games available. Validates the sports to online casino direction that they have taken, with Fanduel to follow shortly with GAN.

[noujay] 25/1/2019 17:23

A decent day really and IMO all recent updates point to this being an excellent proposition for significant and ongoing growth.The revenues are recurring. The fixed costs should only rise lightly as more clients come onboard and the back of the set up is broken by upfront client fees (which don't get booked until they go live but they don't kink cash flow either).Interested to see next broker note.

[mip55] 25/1/2019 12:35

No doubt you were misled by GAN themselves:today provides a trading update ahead of its preliminary results for the year ended December 31, 2018 (FY 2018) and guidance for 2019.Why does this firm employ such good software engineers and sales people and entrust itself to rank amateurs when it comes to informing the market?

[carcosa] 25/1/2019 12:28

Yes/No,

Surprisingly they issue audited results in March. One of relatively few companies that do. So you are right, my 'prelims' are in fact Full year Results. The September date is the the half year report/interims which are, of course, unaudited.

[sophia1982] 25/1/2019 12:28

Thank you, Carcosa.
You sound more cautious than me! If there was the possibility of requiring additional finance, I think they would not have stressed this:
"The Board does not anticipate any additional capital requirement on the current business plan and the Company is therefore fully funded as it enters FY2019".

[mip55] 25/1/2019 12:18

Carcosa, if you are waiting for the prelim results they won't be issued till September. The Final year end results however are due 29th March. As I have said before this is a gem of a company but it is poorly served by the staff who write their RNS updates

[noujay] 25/1/2019 12:06

I'm interested to understand how you arrive at losses for 2019 of £5/6m?If they require additional finance for 2019 it will be to service significant further growth given that they are currently capitalised for the year. Yes the expenses may change but not that significantly IMO.With regards to revenues coming in lighter than your forecast, some revenue has fallen into H119 I believe from Pennsylvania development fees. I believe that there may also have been an alteration of how marketing spend is treated in relation to Winstar although would need to track back to clarify exactly why I suspect that.

[glawsiain] 25/1/2019 10:10

Thank meganxmas, carcosa and noujay.

'As such, management expects mid to high double digit percentage year on year revenue growth in FY 2019' must mean 50 - 99%, as you say.

[mip55] 25/1/2019 10:08

Interesting to note Carcosa does not see any real traction in this share till 2020/21. I, for one, would be very surprised if GAN still existed then. I am quite sure that various U.S. deep pocketed casino operators are,even now, running the rule over this little gold mine.

[carcosa] 25/1/2019 10:08

Sophia,

", any comment from Carcosa?"

Since you ask...

Got to remember this is a trading update and a better picture will not emerge until the prelims are issued.

It is a positive Trading Update but does warrant a closer examination for me , so that I know what I am looking for come the prelims.

Revenue is a a bit light IMO compared to known Gross gaming revenues. So I will be keen to establish why. Has there been a substantive increase in Gross gaming Taxes and Expenses? or is there a large reduction in GAN's revenue share? Will also be interested if there has been a marked increase in Debtor days.

Revenue growth forecast for 2020 seems about right given current knowledge. i.e. take Q4/18 gaming revenues, multiply by 4 add a bit of growth on that, crunch some numbers and and 2019 revenues are around +43%. That could materially increase going through the year.

Important not to get carried away though. This year will still be loss making £5-6m? Current business plans may change and additional finance may also be required in 2019. In 2020 I think its a forgone conclusion they will need additional funds. Getting hooked up to revenue and EBITDA 'clean' can give the wrong impression.

For the above reasons, plus operating in a regulated market and the outside possibility that a legal battle ensues over the patent issue GAN remains a high risk proposition and I remain cautious and size my investment here appropriately.

[noujay] 25/1/2019 10:06

If you peg it in at 75% it's actually pretty close to carcosa estimates for fy19 gan revenue.It obviously does not mean mid to high teens and the KPI's alone illustrate that!

[meganxmas] 25/1/2019 09:52

Mid to high double digit growth must mean 50 to 99 per cent which bodes well and not as daft as sounds if q4 direction of travel continues. Is that not why most are here ?

[mip55] 25/1/2019 09:40

A little like the Smurfit medium term strategy of seeking a NASDAQ listing.....meaningless

[glawsiain] 25/1/2019 09:31

Can anyone define what 'mid to high double digit growth' is for me?

To my mind, mid double digits means 50 and high is 90. But I'm struggling to believe that's their meaning in the RNS. They probably mean in the teens.

[cumnor] 25/1/2019 09:26

I like the 'mid to high double digit growth growth' (at first I thought it was mid to high teen) but this is seriously good-no debt-cash pile in place. Unusually good for a micro cap-in all respects. Been taking more off the clueless mugs selling over the past few days-MMS taking it down t every opportunity on no volume so a great share to take advantage off for the SIPP, and patience. Very few shares in issue so this mindless drip selling wont last-punters picking up now see the longer story here and will stay so share price will turn substantially in no time.

[rivaldo] 25/1/2019 08:59

Terrific stuff. All sorts of positives as per everyone's posts above.

I particularly like the paragraph re the patents and the potential licensing receipts. The emphasis on this suggests it should be material at the least.

Plus there's the strong growth in Italy, the £5.3m cash pile....

And "it is believed that seven additional US States are now considering the rapid regulation of Internet gambling including Michigan, Oregon, New York, Indiana, Kansas and Louisiana(3) together with Massachusetts".

At some point GAN could be a very big winner from here if all goes well.