Gan Share Discussion Threads

[sophia1982] 25/1/2019 08:55

Solid trading.
I am pleased to see cash is same as 1H18 (so no cash burn).
Revenue needs to increase in order to generate positive eBitda.

After his excellent post #2592, any comment from Carcosa?

[noujay] 25/1/2019 08:26

Strong update with plenty to digest. 2018 was only a part year of US revenues via operators who are only now starting to optimise their offerings. There is so much more to come this year via patent licensing, increased real money business from NJ and In particular Penn, plus refreshed push in simulated once they have fully staffed in Bulgaria (expected April according to previous commentary).Not much not to like IMO.

[igoe104] 25/1/2019 08:00

I only wish we had more patient holders, this share seems too acquired weak holders who sell into any spam write-ups etc.

[igoe104] 25/1/2019 07:56

Excellent stuff, looks like they will gaining from licence payments in 2019

GAN has now placed a selected number of US casino operators on notice of GAN's Patent and associated intellectual property and anticipates concluding additional commercial licensing arrangements which shall contribute to GAN's revenue and earnings in 2019

Also Momentum building elsewhere.


US Regulatory Developments
With respect to online sports betting in the US, GAN welcomed the repeal of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act 1992 ("PASPA") by the US Supreme Court on the 14(th) of May 2018. The reported success of the Internet sports betting market in New Jersey in H2 2018 has resulted in an increase in the speed of regulation of intra-State Internet gambling and it is believed that seven additional US States are now considering the rapid regulation of Internet gambling including Michigan, Oregon, New York, Indiana, Kansas and Louisiana(3) together with Massachusetts(4)

[mip55] 25/1/2019 07:54

My favourite bit highlights where revenue is coming from:High quality recurring revenues represented approximately 85% of total revenue for the period, with almost two thirds originating from the US, the Company's key geographic market.Even without further expansion all GAN has to do is sit back and count the cash rolling in!

[rimau1] 25/1/2019 07:18

Big one for me is confirmation that we are fylly funded for 2019, no cash raise. This was holding the stock price back IMO.

[molatovkid] 25/1/2019 07:14

Lots of positives and the stage is set for incremental growth as more states come on stream with the gaming and the GAN in prime position

[mip55] 25/1/2019 07:09

2019 OutlookThe outlook remains highly positive due to continued and rapid growth in real money Internet gambling delivered for clients in both the US and European markets. The Company therefore expects the strong momentum achieved during H2 2018 to continue into FY 2019. As such, management expects mid to high double digit percentage year on year revenue growth in FY 2019 and full year positive EBITDA1, based on the current fixed cost base.

[mip55] 25/1/2019 07:08

2018 Financial HighlightsTrading for FY 2018 is expected to be ahead of market expectations with revenue between £10.5M to £11.3M versus £9.1M for FY 2017.  This result was primarily driven by real money Internet gambling which increased H2 2018 revenue by more than 40% over H1 2018. High quality recurring revenues represented approximately 85% of total revenue for the period, with almost two thirds originating from the US, the Company's key geographic market.

[mip55] 25/1/2019 07:04

Very nice Trading update!

[noujay] 23/1/2019 17:29

Yes we just got KPI's and I don't expect them to have replaced it. Liberum also indicated they would issue revised guidance after the TU I believe and so there should be something to come.

[mip55] 23/1/2019 16:50

Trading update 23 jan last year, KPIs issued three days later. KPIs this Quarter released last week. We SHOULD be getting a separate trading update along with a date for release of final results but, with GAN, who knows?

[busterdog2] 23/1/2019 16:44

Last year the 2017 Q4 KPI’s and the TU came separately.

[libertine] 23/1/2019 16:06

Noujay
What, as well as the one last Thursday!!

[noujay] 23/1/2019 15:29

We should be expecting a trading statement anytime now if last year is indicative

[mylands] 23/1/2019 09:00

The recent spike up to 60p has all but gone, with the share price back around the 50p mark.

As with all small cap companies it's the news' flow that counts to keep the price moving up. That's good news only!

[busterdog2] 20/1/2019 18:20

What about the contribution from Italy?

[carcosa] 20/1/2019 06:10

Hello Sophia,

I do agree that Q4 gaming numbers are an indication of significant change. If you take a look at the chart below you can see that.



For Q4, revenue was $41.8 million compared with $20.5 million the year before, and $26.7 million for the third quarter due to sports betting in New Jersey driving exceptional revenue growth. I see no reason why that should reverse, in fact I can only see that increasing.

But of course it is really about how much will the operators make from those revenues and then how much does GAN get of their revenue pie.

Assuming that gaming revenue will be consistent with the last Q4 revenue numbers and allowing for a small annual increase I forecast 2019 numbers to be:



Personally, I see the above as base case scenario

Next we have to figure out how much of that Operator revenue pie will be seen by GAN. We have 2017 numbers (obviously) and applying a consistent methodology for 2019 numbers I get:



From here on in, estimates really do get airy-fairy. Figuring out Depreciation, Amortisation, Impairment, Exceptionals, Sharebased Payments to get to an Operating profit/(Loss) becomes real guesswork.

One scenario is:



2019 should see one or two US States enacting legislation in favour of sports betting etc and costs may well increase considerably before meaningful revenue comes GAN's way. GAN should however exhibit good operational gearing.


So although the last Q4 numbers are strong I don't think there is any panic to buy GAN just now. Personally I have only taken a small share holding and will probably await news especially from Georgia and Iowa during 2019. I do not believe there will be as many States enacting legislation as many believe there will be. Personally unlike many other people I do not see any real traction until 2020/21 but by keeping a small shareholding it now forces me to play closer attention to the business.

Overall though, I do consider revenue forecasts for 2018 onwards being lower than what the actual numbers will be.

[sophia1982] 18/1/2019 18:45

I mean: should we expect..

[sophia1982] 18/1/2019 18:45

Hi Carcosa,

I am long GAN, but I always find difficult to work with the reported numbers of GAN.
In the last two years there was not much of a progress.
Do you think that Q4 is the beginning of a real change and that we will see some different numbers in 2H18 and 2019?
For reference, Gan closed 1H with net revenues of 4.6M and negative Ebitda.
Which specific numbers whould we expect for 2H18?
Many thanks

[cumnor] 17/1/2019 16:04

Thanks Carcosa. Hope their margins are decent.

[noujay] 17/1/2019 15:55

And this is the genesis really. NJ will likely continue to deliver and Pennsylvania plugged in with Parx and Fanduel will give their engine plenty more fuel.Can only be a buy at this stage IMO but what do I know!

[carcosa] 17/1/2019 15:46

Cumnor,

No, not quite.
For the quarter it amounts to $41,794,846 Gross Gaming Revenue
You then have to deduct Taxes and Expenses to get 'Operator Net Revenue'

Then you need to get GAN's Revenue Share (30% Sim / 10-40% RGM which probably equates to around 21% overall) of Operator Net Revenue to calculate GAN Net revenue.

[noujay] 17/1/2019 15:06

Italy seems to still be cracking on nicely looking at the GVC update, which is also useful lest we forget it is the largest market for GAN (not for long obviously).

[noujay] 17/1/2019 14:09

Better sell up then, this dog is going nowhere eh?!