Gaming Realms Share Discussion Threads

[brownie69] 07/7/2020 08:25

Lanista,

Good points.

FWIW I think future price projections are dependent upon that September RNS for the interim results. Another upgrade then and no doubt the stock will jump. After all a move from the house broker from a £1m EBITDA forecast to £1.4m EBITDA forecast has taken the stock from around 9p/10p to where we are today.

Gamesys are the interesting player here. GMR have a loan outstanding to them. I'm not aware of details but maybe conversion to GMR shares and not repayment could be an option. That would give them a decent stake from which they could launch a bid?

The other thing with some big companies is that they seem to favour deals that are larger as they want to focus management time etc on deals "that make a difference". Its not a view that I agree with. Id be trying to make smart cheap deals I must admit. But just saying that I am aware of this way of thinking.

But I dont want this taken out on the cheap, much further to run on a 3 year view IMHO.

[ronwilkes123] 07/7/2020 08:04

Seller this morning unloading 20k blocks

[lanista 0202] 06/7/2020 20:28

Brownie, if your theory is correct (which I don’t dispute) and the majority of these shares were sold to lots of private investors and funds, and the same sector bought the rest (after today’s sale, I don’t think that more than 17-18 mil is left), then I don’t think that any offer from now to September under 23p will work. After September RNS, a buyer will need to offer minimum 25p. After December’s announcement of results and the announcement of another state license in the USA, we’re talking “funny money”. So I want to ask you a question, why will GAN, Gamesys, etc, allow for this company to grow and grow and become more expensive, and eventually, start taking their share of the market (and with Slingo, to be honest, it’s more attractive than GAN) when they can buy it for “cheap” now?

[brownie69] 06/7/2020 18:42

Ron, over 3m shares traded today.

Thats well above the daily average if you look over the last year. Not "quiet" for this stock.

Its a micro cap after all.

[brownie69] 06/7/2020 18:40

Regarding the discussion about not declaring a holding to stay under a disclosable holding level.

i think those days are gone. Its caught under the concert party rules and declaration needing to be for the whole position. I cant say that it might never happen but its not in common usage nowadays I'll say.

Its no big drama to disclosure so why would anyone risk a much bigger downside if they got caught.

Regarding a stake builder ahead of a takeover bid. It could happen but its not the only explanation here. For reasons already explained I think private shareholders have woken up to the opportunity and valuation arbitrage than exists re GAN. Maybe a small fund or two buying as well.


Hopefully we will see an RNS or two before long that explain some of the movement on the share register.

[nw99] 06/7/2020 16:54

Wants to break 20 soon

[lanista 0202] 06/7/2020 16:52

Over 3.2 mil sold, big chunks of 300k sold for 17.8, Ron, I don’t think this is accidental buying.

[ronwilkes123] 06/7/2020 16:28

Gone a bit quiet lanista

[ronwilkes123] 06/7/2020 14:44

I've sent you pm Lanista Also a tip try to post on different boards ;-)

[lanista 0202] 06/7/2020 14:41

🤣👍, fair enough. If volumes stay average 1-1.5mil per day. If the price stays around 18, the week beginning of the 17th of August, latest, this company will be in different hands.

[ronwilkes123] 06/7/2020 14:33

Needs a time limit on said bet

[lanista 0202] 06/7/2020 14:31

Maybe for you it’s a small cap, but the difference in price of doing it this way, in comparison with the “carpet buy”, is 10-15 mil for a company that you need to offer 70. Agree to disagree, my offer of 50p is still standing. By the way, I’m talking about a hostile takeover here.

[ronwilkes123] 06/7/2020 14:25

I'm not sure they would go to all the trouble of doing multiple companies for a business that's literally a small cap. Wouldn't be worth the time

[lanista 0202] 06/7/2020 14:22

So Ron, you think that if somebody decided to stand and accumulate shares that they could not use different companies/names if they would like to stay undetected for longer? If you wanted to make a company listen to you, that’s the best and easiest way. But let’s see, time will tell. But I will bet you 50p that I’m correct.

[ronwilkes123] 06/7/2020 14:16

Wouldnt a big buyer have to declare as he went over 3%Happily mistaken don't think your correct with a takeover

[lanista 0202] 06/7/2020 13:57

If you calculate the amount of shares of people who are holding for 5+ years, and then calculate how many shareholders voted two years in a row against the current management, you can come to a pretty precise number of shareholders who want to exit. On top of that, if you add that many of them have over 5 mil+ then you also understand that they can’t unload their shares just willingly in one day. So presume, that slowly melting their shareholding blocks at the price of about 18, for the majority, means they break even. I presume that 50% will be sold at 18+, and they will keep 50% for the ride, and take another chance for short time . But we will know more if GMR refreshes their shareholding page. But if you consider how many shares were sold up to now, then it’s easy to understand that once that the last lot of 20 mil have sold, there will no longer be resistance from the major shareholders. But I still think what I said 5 weeks ago, somebody is standing on the market, and accumulating shares. Because it’s hard to believe that 22% of shares changed hands that quickly, going to small shareholders.

[ronwilkes123] 06/7/2020 12:41

Heavy resistance at 18p

[brownie69] 06/7/2020 12:38

I think there is a chance that some long standing shareholders who suffered the falls in share price might be revising their opinion based on the greater awareness of the US opportunity and how gaming companies are valued there.

Update to my earlier post but it looks like we are hitting resistance at 18p. No surprise I suppose given the run that we have been on in any case.

[lanista 0202] 06/7/2020 12:23

Brownie, I think my prediction was correct. 1% of the company exchanged hands in one morning, at price 18 or just about. If the price keeps over 18, last chunks of shares from old shareholders will disappear in a week or two. So I think another 20/25 mil (minus whatever they sell today) is still up for grabs on 18+.

[ronwilkes123] 06/7/2020 12:14

Sp looking overextended with that spread maybe No one for trading atm after such a big rise

[adamb1978] 06/7/2020 10:53

Thanks HomeBrew, Brownie. I'll download that report and have a read. Always wary about buying into something which is already up 2x-3x, though I guess you can somewhat discount the mid/late March dip.
Appreciate the responses.

Adam

[old fool2] 06/7/2020 10:15

L2: 17.70 10,000
18.20 171,588 (Iceburg 148,338)

[brownie69] 06/7/2020 09:32

I dont agree. Just look at the chart!

Anyone who wanted to sell has had their chance. There were sellers in volume at 12p and 14p. But there has been no resistance from high volume sellers since.

we are into clear blue water here. Paying over 18p now and over 70k bought above that number. I dont know where the next resistance point is. Maybe 20p? What I do know is that there is still a huge arbitrage to the valuation equivalents on NADAQ. GMR needs to be 50p before that gap (based on multiple of revenue) is closed.

[lanista 0202] 06/7/2020 08:30

I don’t think that much of “cheap shares” are left to buy in this company. Around 20-25 mil are probably left, which will be triggered when the shares cross 18 and go towards 20, and that’s it. After that, I think that the majority will wait for a takeover.

[homebrewruss] 06/7/2020 08:17

'Was watching a film and didn’t skip the commercials, noticed something I that I hadn’t appreciated before.

Not only is any advertising for #GMR’s games entirely paid for by clients but when used as a sign-up feature, the client itself essentially subsidises additional demand'