Gama Aviation Share Discussion Threads

[paleje] 19/9/2016 09:10

I think 'broadly in line' is usually taken as lower end or close miss but the performance aside from Europe seemed ok to me and as Rivaldo says they certainly have ambition. PER of 7 seems cheap, the market obviously wants em even cheaper.

[corrientes] 19/9/2016 08:47

So much for optimism !

[rivaldo] 19/9/2016 08:41

Today's interims are are reassuring overall if a little confusing to my small brain!

The outlook is most important, stating that there will be a stronger H2 and that the full year will be broadly in line with expectations.

We can therefore expect around 24p-25p adjusted EPS this year, and perhaps more if H2 trading continues to improve.

The Balance Sheet is sound, and GMAA hope to "double the scale of the business over the next 2 years", so they're certainly ambitious. It looks like there are more acquisitions in the frame.

[scapital] 13/9/2016 10:49

Seriously undervalued here. This is going to be my next BOO.

[lbo] 06/9/2016 12:25

The share price performance looks like they bought 8 Hangovers not Hanger8!

[rivaldo] 01/9/2016 10:31

Indeed - up 3p today on less than £3k of buys :o))

[corrientes] 31/8/2016 16:03

Surely there must be a stock shortage for such a large leap on relatively small volume. Excellent.

[seroserio] 31/8/2016 15:54

Nice quiet thread rivaldo ;-)

[rivaldo] 31/8/2016 09:18

Yep, certainly rising nicely now - lots more to come imho.

[igoe104] 31/8/2016 08:27

Hopefully these should now creep up gently, to get back where it should be.

[rivaldo] 30/8/2016 10:19

Great start to the week. Does seem like that large trade has cleared an overhang.

Agreed twirl - anywhere from 250p-300p would be appropriate for starters.

[twirl] 28/8/2016 14:03

Yes looking for a run up to 250p

[paleje] 26/8/2016 14:36

Good to see some volume to help clear it, maybe some follow on interest next week, a lot of people digest the hard copy IC over the weekend. Slow rise would do fine, have a good one.

[rivaldo] 26/8/2016 12:47

Nice - 620,000 shares gone through at 163p. Clearance of an overhang perhaps.

[rivaldo] 26/8/2016 08:36

Apologies paleje, and many thanks - I hate crossed posts! Here's your extract from ST's tip again so it's not missed:



"The bottom line is that with the share price on the floor, and the rating so low, I feel that the risks are more than balanced by the potential for Gama to outperform my most bearish assumptions, and ones that not even city analysts are making. Reassuringly, the share price seems to have found a floor at the 150p level and looks poised to stage a rally from heavily oversold conditions. And that’s why I rate Gama’s shares a trading buy at 165p ahead of the first half results due out next month. My initial price target is 220p, and if that is surpassed the next technical resistance level is the 250p support level that gave way in late May".

[rivaldo] 26/8/2016 08:26

Apparently GMAA have been tipped by Simon Thompson of the Investors Chronicle online - if anyone's a subscriber a copy would be appreciated!

Ignore the published spread as you can usually deal well within it, and being quite volatile it often responds quickly to any sustained dealing activity.

[paleje] 26/8/2016 08:24

ST tipped these yesterday, I can't paste the whole article but his summary:-

The bottom line is that with the share price on the floor, and the rating so low, I feel that the risks are more than balanced by the potential for Gama to outperform my most bearish assumptions, and ones that not even city analysts are making. Reassuringly, the share price seems to have found a floor at the 150p level and looks poised to stage a rally from heavily oversold conditions. And that’s why I rate Gama’s shares a trading buy at 165p ahead of the first half results due out next month. My initial price target is 220p, and if that is surpassed the next technical resistance level is the 250p support level that gave way in late May.

[corrientes] 25/8/2016 14:17

A lot of volatility here. Spread is ridiculous. What's up doc ?

[rivaldo] 25/8/2016 12:33

Good buying coming in now, causing another jump up.

GMAA should be trading at 250p-300p imho, assuming it meets consensus 26p EPS. A mere 60%-90% upside from here.

EDIT - didn't last long!

[rivaldo] 24/8/2016 11:37

....and some news - encouraging to hear about the high volume of activity at Oxford this summer:



Extracts:

"Gama Aviation Adds to Its European Services
13 August 2016

Gama Aviation continues to develop its offerings by introducing three new services to private and fleet owners.

The first extends the capability of its EASA Part 21J & G capability at Fairoaks, Surrey. The team, specialising in a variety of civilian and military role changes and upgrades, has now added the approval for flight testing in accordance with EASA’s Flight Test Operations Manual (FTOM)...

.....Gama Aviation’s maintenance base at Oxford Airport has added to its coverage with the additional of FAA approvals for ‘N’ registered Bombardier Global and Challenger series, Embraer Legacy series and BAe Hawker series aircraft.

Scott Corbett, base maintenance manager, Gama Aviation Oxford said: “This summer has seen a high volume of maintenance activity taking place in Oxford. The new approvals combined with our AOG coverage for these highly popular types creates a compelling proposition for individuals and fleet owners who want holistic coverage of their aircraft.”

Duncan Daines, group chief marketing officer added: “We have two clear strategies for growth. While our acquisitions grab headlines, the expertise of our teams in developing targeted, high demand services provides the foundation for our organic growth.”"

[rivaldo] 24/8/2016 10:12

Blue :o))

Perhaps the 10k at 153.5p this morning has cleared an overhang.

Consensus remains at 26p EPS this year and 28.04p EPS next year, with 2.22p and 2.26p dividends respectively.

Far too cheap imho.

[roddiemac2] 09/8/2016 10:14

This has been a poor investment to date, but at least Gama have some assets unlike many aircraft lease companies that have little more than an office. DNA & DNA3 buy/sell & lease from an office in Guernsey, they pay high divs but no assets to speak of hence the payout is ~8-9%pa. Likewise is Amedeo (AA4). Air Partner (AIR) at Luton are a safer bet on ~6% yield. From memory, Lord John lee used to hold them in his ISA.---patience necessary here.

[rivaldo] 05/8/2016 11:02

New agreement for GMAA to provide aviation training:

[rivaldo] 03/8/2016 08:33

Yesterday BBA, the much larger sector comparator to GMAA, surprised the market with good results - particularly in its Signature division, which is directly relevant to GMAA. There was a flurry of broker upgrades and the shares gained 9%.

In particular, they noted "US B&GA movements up 0.2% and European B&GA movements down 0.8% during the period" (that's business and general aviation btw!).

Since US operations comprise by far the bigger element of GMAA's operations, and European operations only around 7%-8% from memory, all of this bodes well.

The share price is currently pricing in a disaster, whereas the H1 trading statement was pretty decent and indicates EBITDA only marginally down on last year.

Hopefully the September results and outlook will trigger a big recovery from these levels.