Gable Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[luckymouse] 03/7/2016 21:05

True - and the institutions also - I remember thinking similar - there was the odd holding RNS reducing but the main holder, a swiss fund I believe, was silent - they too may have believed the spin machine, or perhaps this was merely a chicken feed venture capital punt. Some hedgies buy into nearly bankrupt co's knowing full well many will blow up - simply because the occasional one miraculously recovers and 100 bags. So you cant really read much into holding RNSs. Must be nice to have that much money to throw around!

[the stinger] 03/7/2016 19:57

Yep, suckered in lots of PI's at 30p plus all the way to 90's !!.. Jeez.. Thing is none of the big holders seemed to have sold out?.. Wonder what the major shareholder register looks like now, no updates for some time.

[luckymouse] 03/7/2016 16:50

that's when it cracked - were they entirely honest & forthcoming?
Would you recommend you mum/gran etc to invest in these people?

[the stinger] 03/7/2016 16:26

2014 statement...how times have changed..

[luckymouse] 03/7/2016 12:34

stinger - for whatever reasons!?!

01/07/2016 08:51 Alliance News - Gable Shares Suspended As It Continues To Seek Regulatory Funding


CHAIRMAN'S STATEMENT

This has been a significant year of growth for Gable and follows the formative changes made in the business by our CEO over the last 18 months which are clearly flowing through and evidenced by the excellent performance at every level of the business.

Gable is very well positioned for continued growth with a number of new opportunities available to the Group, expanding its product portfolio and further new country launches in the EU where we are receiving increasing demand for bespoke products in some very substantial markets.

I am delighted to say that the Company enjoys a very positive working relationship with its primary Regulator the FMA and Gable benefits from a very healthy financial position with a robust balance sheet and strengthening reserves and solvency position.

It only leaves me to commend everyone working on the team for their hard work, diligence and enthusiasm over the last year and know that we at Gable look forward to 2014 with confidence.

Michael Sofaer

Chairman

19 May 2014

[the stinger] 03/7/2016 11:15

Shuffleman, for me it seems - get rid of all the previous bad news, get through the 2015 / S1 accounts in the next few weeks and its a fresh start. If they have £80m reserves or so to start on which may be sufficient for future claims then other partners may be willing to offer rated premium business,, then further decent rated deals may come along. Add on the potential S2 partnerships from Q3 then all is not lost. Further potential partnerships will surely be agreed in principle on the basis GAH are on a stable reserves footing.

Seems to me that's the plan, the share price will recover big time on this working,,or the business will fail . Simple as that really.

Assuming the shares re open following suspension and the accounts for 2015 ok then what value the market puts on Gable's chances of making it are an unknown. I am awaiting the report and outlook and will decide from there,, as it could be a multi bagger if things work out and they get the business/support.

[the stinger] 01/7/2016 15:12

You never know shuffle, things may work out for you here. Goodluck

[the shuffle man] 01/7/2016 14:54

Stinger

Just think they are being realistic. Their record so far with claims has not been great.

Us shareholder have been well and truly shafted by WD. His high pay was based on brining in premium not profit and the way his companies are connected all stinks.

[the stinger] 01/7/2016 14:35

Garbet and bellister certainly have grudges against GAH, for whatever reasons..

[bellister] 01/7/2016 14:23

Gable are not saying they have Solvency II in principle, deals ? no such thing where solvency II is concerned. However this really does hinge on claim losses and the scope to cope with SII, I do suspect the losses will be high as stated on other comments on this site. Gable are dabbling in areas where they have no experience as far as I can see, also I suspect giving low premiums with high commissions to introducing brokers. Wonder what those brokers are doing at present, nervous I bet.
I am sure the number crunching is to determine which way makes the most money, don't see my few shares lifting from the Abyss, however you never know..

[garbetklb] 01/7/2016 13:57

I totally agree with the explanation of reserving given by Effortless - and would add emphasis to the bit about the choices that tend to be made by struggling / healthy insurers.

Bear in mind that much of the business is relatively new to Gable, so they don't have lots of data to back up their reserving models. And why/how did they win the business? ALL insurers talk about selective underwriting, niches etc etc. But typically it actually comes down to price, width/"flexibility" of cover/underwriting - and commission paid to the introducing broker.......

And, as Effortless says (and my previous comments refer) - technical reserves (principally claims reserves - to keep it simple) are totally different from capital. They are already spoken for - not something held "in reserve" for a rainy day.

As I'm away on hols tomorrow with the kids, I've no time to do any more research but I wonder what GAIG's capital position is looking like after the write off of the balance of the specific ATE policy?? nb the write off of the goodwill associated with GAIG by GAH won't affect GAIG's capital position - or at least, I don't think so, unless there are some cross guarantees??

[the stinger] 01/7/2016 13:51

Effort,, lets wait and see if WD's statement of 'Solvency 11 agreements in principle agreed to' actually materialise first. As that's the game changer here. Without that then the only outcome is a long wait for shareholders to see if a surplus arrives from the reserves.

[effortless cool] 01/7/2016 13:36

Yes, I can predict the lotto numbers, but I will get them wrong. That is because the lotto is a random process with a tiny possibility of any individual predicting the correct outcome.

If GAH reserves are booked at a true best estimate then the outcome for those might also be considered random, with the probability of a favourable outcome being somewhat over 50% and the probability of an unfavourable outcome being somewhat under 50%, the difference being due to the adverse skew of the underlying aggregate loss distribution. However, booked reserves are rarely a true best estimate; there is a range of reserve levels that could sensibly be said to represent a best estimate and companies that are doing well will tend to book figures towards the top of that range (thus increasing the likelihood of a favourable outcome), whilst companies that are doing badly will tend to book figures towards the bottom of that range (thus increasing the likelihood of an adverse outcome). GAH fall into the "companies doing badly" category. Given my knowledge of the sector and historical precedent, I believe that I can predict the outcome here with some degree of confidence.

With regard to your comments on reserves, I believe you will find that you are confusing claims reserves (technical provisions) with capital reserves. They are, in fact, quite different.

[effortless cool] 01/7/2016 12:50

the stinger,

There is no such thing as a "Solvency II deal". Solvency II is a set of rules that GAH need to comply with. The rules extend well beyond capital. The retrospective reinsurance is presumably intended to get claims reserves off the books and reduce capital requirements. Such deals are usually expensive for the purchaser.

As to any possible surplus or deficit, you are wrong - we can all predict it, just none of us can predict it accurately. However, it would be very unusual, almost unheard of, in fact, for a struggling insurer with a capital deficiency to be sitting on a reserving surplus. A deficit is a much more probable outcome under current circumstances.

[the stinger] 01/7/2016 12:35

Solarno, hope it works out well for you and they sort a Solv 11 deal,, if so you may do well as it will be a fresh start with good cash reserves (£80m!!) and the chance of recouping the £1.9m. The cash reserves put GAH in an excellent position for a Solv 11 deal if they can pull it off with a bigger player and despite whats said on here (which no one can predict) may have a surplus,,,and a big one at that.

[garbetklb] 01/7/2016 12:35

Solarno

I'm not old enough to remember Savundra - but I know about him.

I have seen several insurance collapses close up - some due to incompetence, some due to fraud.

Since I started investing I've learned a lot from some people posting here, Fool, Stockopedia - and it's good to be able to put something back in. I've never been invested in Gable - but I have got industry experience to share, and I've met WD.

My comments may, or may not, prove to be correct - time will tell. When there's an RNS talking about things like retrospective reinsurance and people greet it enthusiastically as being some white charger coming to the rescue, I think it's appropriate to explain the reality (at least as I see it).

I doubt anyone invested will see much / any of their investment back. Sorry.

[solarno lopez] 01/7/2016 11:58

Thanks Stinger

By the way we are in July so lets wait for next week which is early July

[the stinger] 01/7/2016 10:49

solarno,, in chunky totals,,not one trade.


escape,, the deed is done now anyway, until it comes out from suspension...Thats a big IF,,, and we know whats happening. Seems all funny business though, ontop of the 6mth rule on results. Maybe WD wanted as many cheap shares as poss and has strung it out waiting for folk to sell,,,like i did. Will soon see if i did the right thing..

What gets me is that there's still 75% holdings via II's??. If this opens up on good news and doubles/triples i'll be one pee'd off person!!

[escapetohome] 01/7/2016 10:31

THank- you Garbet , much apprecited.

I am sticking with your view, and i dont care if it doubles.

This outfit dont deserve my hard earned.

For gambelers very much underlined 50 thousand times.

[solarno lopez] 01/7/2016 10:20

I don't see a buy of 1.5m can anyone else

[the shuffle man] 01/7/2016 10:10

They bought because is got pumped on the FT Alphaville blog who said WD is going to take this private.

[the stinger] 01/7/2016 09:50

Garbets definitely experienced in this industry..and he's been spot on from the highs. However from these lows things could change dramatically unless they go under.

Either way, cant do anything now anyway,,,suspended. It's one way or the other when lifted..if lifted?..fact is - if they come out with good news buyers will not get in at yesterday's prices, so could be to late anyway...someone bought a chunky 1.5m shares yesterday though?. Either a gamble or someone in the know...

[solarno lopez] 01/7/2016 09:44

we are all allowed an opinion and must say Garbet has provided good analysis

[the stinger] 01/7/2016 09:22

max, and more. About 1.8m buys & 700k sells yesterday,,according to ADVFN. Still some big II holders around too, (unless changed) so who knows.

Garbet will either be correct or end up with egg on his face..soon find out. Saying that he has been right from 90p down over,,,not sure from 3.5p though?..one thing's for sure,,Garbet cannot leave this share alone for some reason..maybe he's made a loss when the share price was 60p +? as he was posting during the high's.

This could either explode on good news or be bust?..depends on how true WD's statement is..