Gable Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[garbetklb] 07/6/2016 11:50

I very much doubt there will be £10m coming.

Hogarth, as an underwriting agency, doesn't need much capital - and doesn't have any significant cash. It's late with its accounts (not a good sign) but, in the 2014 accounts, had a significant sum as receivable, presumably as their commission from Gable?

It's conceivable that this might have grown to £10m (and just think who's paid them that....) - if so, the £10m might have been "provided" by some sort of waiving of the amount due - but only temporarily, from the language in the original RNS. How a temporary loan could possibly be accepted as capital, I don't know - but this is Lichtenstein........

I'd be a bit surprised if WD had £10m elsewhere - and amazed if he put it into Gable. Much more likely that the clients will disappear somewhere as "it's not been possible to find an appropriate way to put the money in - with an implicit blaming of solvency II, the FCA, Lichtenstein etc

I'm sorry - still can't see a happy ending for shareholders, or policyholders....

[the stinger] 07/6/2016 11:20

I'm well out of this share now...going only one way and that's down/bust..

[maxmarilli] 07/6/2016 07:34

some buyers this morning...

[escapetohome] 06/6/2016 20:17

Well this seems to have dropped again at the end of the day by a tiny 0.25 p, judging by the graph.

Very pleased im 100 percent sold here, as the person who runs this company doesnt deserve my money, not because its a bad investment, though judging by some of our resident experts posts ( garbet) it most surely is.

Just as well i operated that stop loss.

[the stinger] 04/6/2016 09:22

Garbet, whats your take on the latest here... How and where is this £10m coming from?. That's if it happens!!. Is it a kind of promise.. riding on / assuming they can recoup that big claim you've previously mentioned.... Do you know anymore on that claim?.

Very Very cloudy...unless the man has something up his sleeve.

[maxmarilli] 02/6/2016 07:23

Up it goes...

[battlebus2] 01/6/2016 21:03

Yep, unfortunately it looks a likely scenario.

[the stinger] 01/6/2016 21:00

battlebus, my bet is Dewsal wants all...for nothing!!. The way he's managing the decline in Gable means he could pick it up for nothing shortly!! and holds nearly 20%..

[battlebus2] 01/6/2016 20:25

Directors talk again...

[the stinger] 01/6/2016 17:23

Shuffleman, whats gets me is how the hell were PI's duped into buying at levels such as 20's/30's/40's/50's/60's/70's and above!!... and only a year or so ago!!.. amazing.... At least Dewsal himself has lost a fair chunk...and not just shareholders.. he must be down around £15m..or more.

[the shuffle man] 01/6/2016 16:39

I assume the guarantee needs to be backed up by assets as otherwise will not be worth anything.

So Dewsal has another entity that he owns and will use to provide the guarantee. Maybe this is where he has squirreled away his massive pay over the last few years, whilst screwing us shareholders.

[solarno lopez] 01/6/2016 16:13

so no cash just a guarantee

[garbetklb] 01/6/2016 06:53

Look at the volume of business written since 2012/13 and that shows why the reserves should have increased. There is a much bigger universe of claims bubbling away. Only if they had been writing a steady level of business for years, would you expect to see stable claim reserves - and remember these are CLAIM reserves, not unallocated reserves which are there "just in case".....

[the stinger] 30/5/2016 12:19

Garbet, back in 2012/13 they had near £40m reserves and it was deemed as ok?, now they have £70m which they have obviously used profits for to back up which means if they keep trading in some other form then the current £70m forms an excellent start point..like I say , its us previous PI's in at 30p to 80p plus who have lost out... At 4p per share 6m MC its a different game now, especially if they partner up, which we will have to wait and see... could be a recovery play..

[garbetklb] 30/5/2016 12:10

The £70m reserves are not backup..... They will be comprised of :
£xm as the sum of individually reserved claims that they know about
£ym for IBNR - claims Incurred But Not Reserved/Reported
£zm - maybe on top as a safety loading

It's the £ym bit (plus the £zm if it exists separately) that they are saying/hoping is larger than turns out to be the needed. It's inconceivable that, AT LEAST, a substantial portion of "y" will turn into genuine claims (& costs) needing paying.

We used to divide IBNR into :
IBNER - Incurred (and reserved), But Not Enough Reserved - claims normally get bigger, the longer they take to settle.
IBNYR - Incurred But Not Yet Reserved - where we don't yet know about the claim.
All as a way of trying to make reserving more accurate - but anyone who claims they know what reserves will be needed is deluded. (me included)

[the stinger] 30/5/2016 10:24

battlebus, no probs... still think at these levels punters maybe onto something...as Garbet says,,it seems they will try and re vamp the business and punters now will be getting 2/3/4yrs worth of reserves at the expense of PI's, who were paying upto 90p ps for the build up...

£70m of reserves (back up), £6m possibly coming from a receivable, still in business with £100m of underwriting...this could well be a huge recovery play...as i say though, its been at the expense of us previous shareholders. A decent 3rd party on board would be required, however it seems there's interest...time will tell.

[battlebus2] 30/5/2016 09:55

Thankyou stinger, for all my thoughts on this company I do wish you well, i never like to see any shareholder lose money and here is no different.

[the stinger] 30/5/2016 09:51

battlebus - my apologies offered..I wrongly assumed you referred to the open letter..

[battlebus2] 30/5/2016 09:46

Still waiting on an apology stinger.

[the stinger] 30/5/2016 09:39

Garbet, Your analysis over the years has been spot on...and you should have shorted the stock for me....as you were totally correct.

Gamble at 4p that some news arrives, maybe takeover, maybe partnership who knows...i agree...especially if it carries on with a bigger players support. Then you are looking at a 5 bagger.

Otherwise bust or maybe some value left from the reserves.. its a total unknown.. Could be in the tens of millions??. Also the £6m provision to claim back..

[garbetklb] 30/5/2016 09:34

Having worked for a couple of insurers when they were in trouble (they both survived btw), I know the game. Insurance is all about confidence - you're selling a promise to pay at some point in the future. For liability business, a long time in the future.

So, when things get grim, it's vital to appear as relaxed as possible and assure everyone that there's nothing to worry about. What else would you expect WD to say?

If you look at Insurance Age's front page, the next story is about the issues for brokers using insurers such as Gable......

Stinger - your penultimate sentence. Substitute "premiums" for "profits" and you're correct as I suspect the profits will prove to have been a complete illusion. And I'd expect a long tail writer to put AT LEAST all the premiums for long tail business straight into reserve for the first couple of years, at least. We used to reserve 100% of premiums automatically for 3+ years - except where we had early claims activity, when we would reserve OVER 100%. We would NEVER reserve under 100% at that stage - the profit from the business comes from (hopefully) being able to release some of the reserves in later years and from investment income.

BUT, as Effortless Cool has touched upon, our 100% would probably be significantly more than Gable's 100%.... Because they have been paying an additional layer of commissions to Hogarth(WD) and may well have been paying them profit commissions (bonuses based on Hogarth/original brokers having supplied "profitable" business) as well. So the £1 of premium remaining to pay claims shrinks.

Any holders might like to ask the company what provision there is to claw back some of WD's bonuses? Although, I suspect we all know the answer.......

Leave it a couple of weeks and also ask them a very carefully & tightly worded question asking which brokers / agents / business suppliers have stopped placing business with them. I suspect the answer will be that they won't disclose that on commercial confidentiality grounds. Plus some waffle about it not being significant etc. If you're really keen, you could ring some of the brokers etc and ask them if they are still using Gable - I suspect the answer will be either "No" or "Only where the client specifically authorises it".

Yes, there's a chance they will survive - but reading the open letter, I suspect they may be trying to morph into a different beast, maybe underwriting for other companies? I doubt shareholders here will see much value.

Sorry if this OPINION isn't what you want to hear. Read back through my posts to see if you think my views have credibility - many on ADVFN don't. Come to your own conclusions.

If you've got a small exposure that you can afford to lose, the gamble might be worthwhile, interesting & educational. There haven't exactly been a flood of Director/PDMR buy RNS announcements in the last year.......

[battlebus2] 30/5/2016 09:27

Stinger i'm talking about the tweet of your post by Directors talk nothing to do with the open letter.... you did ask me where to find it.....i was just replying, even spent 10 minutes trying to find it ...jeez......

[the stinger] 30/5/2016 09:07

battlebus - your fibbing,, the open letter and article are fact... now why would you say something thats not true??.. Posted below and if you go to the page its still online.. Like i say gable is either bust or seriously understood/undervalued at 4p per share...



Dewsall says insurer aims to offer Solvency II compliant lines and A-rated paper by Q3.

In an open letter to brokers seen by Insurance Age, Gable chief executive William Dewsall said it was "business as usual" for the insurer.

This follows yesterday's announcement that the company's board was considering a sale of the business in whole or part.

Dewsall further insisted the firm was sufficiently capitalised to continue to grow under its existing structure.

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Gable ponders sale and admits Solvency II compliance "is not possible"
He confirmed that the insurer was working to conclude a strategic review of its business and structure, and that the process would "provide an even stronger platform for Gable's policyholders and brokers".

Solvency II
He noted that it was the company's goal to offer certain Solvency II compliant niche lines of business by Q3 this year, and to provide its brokers and policy holders across Europe, with A-rated paper for the entire Gable platform.

According to Dewsall the process will be concluded by the end of the third quarter of this year.

The letter read: "We continue to trade strongly during 2016, with excellent support from our reinsurance partners and can look forward to further progress this year."

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[the stinger] 30/5/2016 08:50

Good posts....then in another breath.... this comes out..

hxxp://www.insuranceage.co.uk/insurance-age/news/2459561/business-as-usual-for-gable-says-ceo-dewsall

That open letter seems to take a totally different stance on things.

The suggestion that being based in Liechtenstein is dodgy does not wash with me as Allianz Risk Transfer AG who are based in Switzerland has recently announced that it intends to relocate its European headquarters to Liechtenstein at the end of 2016...thats fact.

IMO no one has or seems to have a clue whats going on here with Gable,, that includes brokers, the MM's, and posters on here to, hence the share price being smashed.... Total uncertainty!!

This could go bust or 5 bag on a partnership deal at the click of a finger....and that's a fact!.. the share price has been to 90p to 4p in less than 2yrs, and looking back over the consensus by the majority of posters (some seeming knowledgeable) was a very bright future for Gable..

If they fold, what happens to the £70m reserves is my question, maynot/cant be all taken in future claims, if so where does the balance go...all recent years profits have been put into those reserves. All very strange...