Gable Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[maxmarilli] 01/7/2016 09:14

Let,s see when will relist someone was adding 100k and 250k just b4 suspension they must have a clue about what is going to happen

[solarno lopez] 01/7/2016 08:26

Garbet do you remember Emile Savundra ?

[the stinger] 01/7/2016 08:11

Garbet, one or the other here, bust or recovery play. Still doubtful as nothing agreed.. That statement (below) from WD 'Maybe' a load of B/S. Who knows..

"I am pleased to confirm that we have agreements in principle with rated insurance carriers and will be underwriting with their support commencing from Q3 this year. Gable are working with various parties to provide Solvency II solutions for all lines of our business both in the UK and Europe. We will advise our counterparties of the full details of these agreements once finalised."

[solarno lopez] 01/7/2016 08:09

Neither Garbet !

But thanks for your conclusion

[garbetklb] 01/7/2016 07:58

A few thoughts :

Solarno - either you are ramping, or hopelessly out of your depth. Sorry to say this.

Write downs
I'm not surprised that the ATE policy has now been totally written off (albeit with the possibility that something might be salvaged). ATE is a very specialised niche where lots of people have lost lots of money. My VIEW is that Gable were hopelessly out of their depth. I don't know how much other ATE business they remain exposed to.
Writing down GIAG leaves what?? Probably pretty much nothing.

Rated carriers
I'm not sure what Gable is beyond the operating subsid - which has now been written off? Yes, on the face of it, having found "rated carriers" sounds good - but good for whom? Let's look at the flow of business :
Insured
Broker
Hogarth - NOT owned by Gable, but by WD
Rated carrier

So where does Gable fit in? Just possibly as an additional step between Hogarth & the rated carrier? But performing what role? Adding what value? Maybe vetting Hogarth's underwriting?

If I were the underwriter for a rated carrier (and I have been an underwriter), I'd be looking very closely at Hogarth and auditing their underwriting myself, not delegating this function. (Actually, if I were an underwriter I'd be running a mile from an organisation writing a rag-bag of unrelated business, with a record of failure & run by WD)

So I don't see the rated carriers as being Gable's salvation - they may be very useful to Hogarth, but Hogarth ain't Gable........

Retrospective reinsurance.
The vast majority of reinsurance contracts are PROSPECTIVE - ie, just like your house/car insurance, they are put in place before the loss and cover fortuitous losses. RETROSPECTIVE reinsurance is something totally different - it is NOT simply backdating cover to put a "normal" reinsurance in place at a later date.
Retrospective reinsurance is typically to cover unexpected deterioration of reserves etc - put yourself in the place of a potential reinsurer for a moment.
- Do you understand the mix of business that Gable have been writing in a miscellany of territories?
- Do you think Gable understand them?
- What's their track record for reserving?
- How stable do you feel Gable are? If potentially unstable, who will be handling the claims etc then?
- Do you trust them?
- + many more questions

If all the answers are positive, presumably you're going to charge them a premium to make a profit for yourself - and, by definition, a cost for Gable. As more answers become less positive, what's going to happen to your proposed premium? It sure as hell ain't going to reduce! And, at some point, as the answers become less satisfactory, you're going to decide it ain't worth the risk - and remember that risk is what insurance is all about.

Personally, I suspect they will struggle to get any quotes from reputable reinsurers and/or any quotes will be prohibitive.

Funding
Well, what a surprise - WD ain't going to come up with anything like £10m! At a guess, they will fail to find anyone willing to put any cash in. Although, just conceivably, WD might help recapitalise the company at a nominal price - diluting existing shareholders to nothing. Why would he do that? Well, someone has to manage the claims - for a fee.


Overall, I very much doubt existing shareholders will get anything back.

[escapetohome] 01/7/2016 07:54

What does Garbet have to say on this?

[the stinger] 01/7/2016 07:47

solarno, Gable was priced for failure really,,, garbet and a few others saying they were out of business etc etc and Solvency 11 a no goer... however the Solvency 11 guarantee (if done) is very big news and positive if secured..and across all business lines!! Garbet cant deny that!!. I may have sold out to early?.

"I am pleased to confirm that we have agreements in principle with rated insurance carriers and will be underwriting with their support commencing from Q3 this year. Gable are working with various parties to provide Solvency II solutions for all lines of our business both in the UK and Europe. We will advise our counterparties of the full details of these agreements once finalised."

[bellister] 01/7/2016 07:47

Needs to be a reasonable quick reorganisation as clients/brokers surely will have stopped placing business into Gable on the basis of due diligence .
Or is it more likely a new beginning and everything starts again, if the latter may be a good buy when trading in shares begin.
Still risky, hopefully my few shares don't fall into the abyss.

[solarno lopez] 01/7/2016 07:41

that is why I m so positive Stinger

[the stinger] 01/7/2016 07:32

Yep, kitchen sink job and total fresh start here. Solvency 11 with 3rd parties is very positive news though and could see a recovery play in time.

The £1.9m write off is also down to making a fresh start, however they'll try recover i'm sure.

If they do a deal and continue on the Solv 11 then that alone paints a different picture here...'IF'

[the shuffle man] 01/7/2016 07:15

Losses are going to be larger.

In consideration of the strategic restructuring, the Board has decided to write off the balance of the ATE insurance policy receivable amounting to GBP1.9 million (moving from GBP6.0 to GBP7.9 million) and the goodwill of GBP4.25 million relating to the acquisition by Gable of GIAG following an impairment review.

Look like kitchen sinking getting all the bad news out of the way in one hit.

I don't trust Dewsal, could he be doing this to get the company on the cheap as discussed on FT Alphaville yesterday.

[solarno lopez] 01/7/2016 07:03

.....Gable are working with various parties to provide Solvency II solutions....


so, so, positive

[the stinger] 01/7/2016 07:02

Good, Bad.... hmmm. If rated carriers enter the scene could be a new start here..Take time however could be a significant recovery play. Cant buy now anyway, so will have to wait and see..

[solarno lopez] 01/7/2016 07:01

....which include additional retrospective reinsurance facilities......this is very positive

[solarno lopez] 01/7/2016 06:57

rated carriers have come in ..positive

[escapetohome] 01/7/2016 06:56

Good or bad?

[liam1om] 01/7/2016 06:54

Suspended it is.

[solarno lopez] 01/7/2016 06:53

its actually a positive announcement if you read it closely particularly where the company have found rated carriers

[the stinger] 30/6/2016 17:22

Well,, something happening in the background.

[the shuffle man] 30/6/2016 17:17

Its the rules of AIM. A company has to release its results within 6 months of its year end or its suspended.

[the stinger] 30/6/2016 16:58

Is that from a phone call shuffle?.. if so could be a holdings RNS too?. If no suspension, II's selling and GAH still trading ok I'm back in... Eyes on 1st thing!!

[the shuffle man] 30/6/2016 16:55

Well there will be an announcement in the morning. Either the results are released or the shares will be suspended.

[the stinger] 30/6/2016 16:54

Trade pattern suggests there's an II selling out,,, obviously that will have been keeping the share price down from the 5/6p levels. Once out and if there's any positive news GAH have held back on then this may treble very quickly. Too much negativity around here for whatever reason..

Tempted to get back in at 3.5p if so.

[the stinger] 30/6/2016 16:31

Well someone is buying heavy..sure all will be known soon. Cheap takeover by WD ?...at 5p per share would cost him £3.5m? 10p £7m... Sure he's tempted. He'll probably take his holdings to 25%-29% first, especially at the 3.5p levels.

[bellister] 30/6/2016 15:55

My brokers are telling me, some premium finance providers will not provide finance for broker clients underwritten by gable. Not looking good.