Futura Medical Share Discussion Threads

[mdi] 06/2/2024 15:31

Its a non medicated medical device gel made of alcohol and water which still has no clinically proven effect beyond any similar placebo hydroalcoholic gel in any blind study.






The company that makes MED3000 (Eroxon) also made a different compound called MED2005, a nitroglycerine-containing cream. Two trials have been completed, but only one was published. In the published trial, the results showed that the results for the active drug were only marginally better than a placebo, with about 37% of placebo recipients being satisfied with their experience versus 48% in those who received the active drug.

This means that about one man out of nine who used the active drug found it more helpful than a placebo. It also means that most people who were satisfied with the results were having a placebo response, but still, it worked. It was safe to use and worked quickly, within 10 minutes.

The company then decided to market the placebo compound itself as Eroxon, which does not contain nitroglycerine or any compound that is expected to have a pharmacologic effect, although the company suggests that the “evaporative effect� of the cream may stimulate nerve endings, without any data to support this.

I know that many men are willing to do almost anything to treat erectile dysfunction. I am also supportive of the placebo response when it is used ethically. However, I have a hard time recommending paying $100 for a compound that was designed and tested as a placebo, even if 37% of men will find some benefit from it.

[givmesunshine] 06/2/2024 15:28

Or Haleon - Definition of "Big Pharma" 10 billion revenue..If FDA and Haleon are happy with thier due dilligence I am.. still waiting for a pull back though.. they always come

[givmesunshine] 06/2/2024 15:23

I dont think the FDA would have approved it as a de novo medical device if the clinical trial data showed it was a placebo - Not the easiest of authorities to kid

[takeiteasy] 06/2/2024 15:22

If you are new here fyi we have been debating this literally 100 times over from someone who has been trying to use this point to bash the firm endlessly.

Please have a look at the eroxon website as it is explained in great length. I can supply a link if you need one. I hope this helps you.

[cyberbub] 06/2/2024 15:19

Am looking closely with a view to possible investment here. But can anyone who's been around for longer please explain the posts on the thread about Eroxon being equivalent to a placebo with no medical effect - surely that can't be correct?

[parvez] 06/2/2024 15:19

Agreed and whichever way you look to calculate - this is a steal IMHO but time will tell.

[takeiteasy] 06/2/2024 15:17

I suppose the main point on the numbers is that they are only now pushing more firmly with advertising and expanding sales outlets eg Superdrug/Tescos and more internet chemists so any number at this stage is a very rough approximation to what might occur next year ....

[parvez] 06/2/2024 15:13

just been doing some simple numbers here.
ED market globally in 2022 was $2.5Bn with US being the largest market. Asume FUM only sell in half the markets that is vaued at 1.25Bn. Assume 20% market share gives you $250Mn revenue at 58% margin = $145mn. FUM currently valued at approx $146Mn. Eyeo suggested 10 x the correct price sounds about right to be a ten bagger!
DYOR and good luck to all.

[allstar4eva] 06/2/2024 15:01

Where does 4m rev come from?

[eyeofthetiger] 06/2/2024 14:58

Based on today's figures following scenario may be feasible:

2023 uk sales revenue 4 million in 6 mths, market share 20%, gross >50.

Once sold in US, EU and Latin America 25e full yr sales 10x2x4 mill , gross 40 mill, if pe typical pharmaceuticals level 20 -> EV 800 mill.

A real 10X stock.

All eyes on April launch in TEN countries. Will be all over Amazon Globally

[allstar4eva] 06/2/2024 14:57

I'm not sure your run rate is correct. 1.7m rev to June so 1.4m June to Dec? June figure as per interims.... Figures seem odd...

[givmesunshine] 06/2/2024 14:33

Perhaps I should have bought in this moring - was expecting a pull back, There alot in the pipeline for this year.. I will wait and see for now, hope this drops back a bit

[takeiteasy] 06/2/2024 14:10

One thought for the amazon scammers is a sobering one and bad luck for them tbh.

If you go with the run rate of £0.7 million/month for now and make a huge assumption that this is mainly UK based.

You then assume from the amazon site they are claiming 4,000 sales/month = £0.1m.

You can make the very approximate deduction that e are the happy position to rely on amazon for fortunately only c.1/7th of our sales revenue.

I find this rather enjoyable for the incredible lengths they are going to against us!

dyor etc

[genierub] 06/2/2024 14:04

Well its NT to buy at 40p. Think we are in for a nice afternoon

[takeiteasy] 06/2/2024 13:16

I suspect the company does not want to get too much interest from rivals until sales channels are all established hence being slightly vague over the timings of the numbers - we are very lucky we had the interview from before to work this all out tbh.

[allstar4eva] 06/2/2024 13:07

Lol yh I need to look more closely. If correct this will continue to rise later this afternoon, tomorrow and beyond...

[takeiteasy] 06/2/2024 13:00

Yes the first few months may be ramp up but I would expect a greater revenue. - well the above shows how late the ramp us was in 2023 - if they had spelt it out this clearly the share price may have done a little better :)

[allstar4eva] 06/2/2024 12:59

Takeiteasy that makes a lot of sense. Thanks for that analysis

[hatfullofsky] 06/2/2024 12:39

allstar, that tweaked my interest too. Coopers launched in the UK and Belgium in March, now with greater the >20% market share, FY Revenue £3.1m. Some basic extrapolation would indicate the UK and Belgium total market are worth £20m in revenue FY £4m x 5 for 100% share (which they won't get)

Yes the first few months may be ramp up but I would expect a greater revenue.

I was going to jump in here but I may wait for clarification from the results. I think it may give back some of these early gains

[wheeze] 06/2/2024 12:28

For some reason they seem to be downplaying the success- is it possible that the trading update should have been more positive?

[allstar4eva] 06/2/2024 12:07

I'm looking here but the sales vs market size vs captured market share looks odd. Global mkt 3bn so UK at least 150m maybe more. So 20% of that would be 30m not 3m. Where am I going wrong?

[cyberbub] 06/2/2024 12:05

Hmmmm ... Looking back over the posts am I right in understanding that Eroxon is actually a *placebo* with no medical component at all?!?!

[seagreen] 06/2/2024 11:43

sensible...thanks for some feed back ...these AIM mkts can be very trappy LOL

[givmesunshine] 06/2/2024 11:07

Morning

Not a holder as yet, but looks good timing to enter FUM when it settles down - bang on to go ito profitablilty this Year as they FC at the last interims.
Cyber - 20% is not a constant in the results ... still very early days only launched in UK end of April 23. Cash looks more than ample to take this through and so many market to attack.. I will be buying once it settles