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[felix1] 18/8/2017 13:49

Following Norway (pop 5.2m), Switzerland (pop 8.4m) is expected to be the next for digital switch over from 2020 to 2024. However some are suggesting Denmark (pop 5.7m) could start as soon as 2018, with a shorter two year switchover process: http://www.radiomagonline.com/around-the-world/0020/denmark-could-be-next-to-begin-fm-shutdown/39092Personally I think 2019 is more realistic for Denmark reaching the 50% trigger threshold. The above article quotes a listener figure of 33% in Q1 2017, while WorldDAB is now saying 36% (source DR/Gallup). I wonder whether the switchover in Norway will influence DAB take up in other countries, particularly the other Scandinavian countries.

[battlebus2] 18/8/2017 13:31

I've been buying 😉

[felix1] 18/8/2017 13:28

The rise yesterday was accompanied by a significant jump in volume and that is up again already this morning. This suggests to me that FST has been spotted by an institution. Has anyone seen any new coverage or news which might explain this? Of course it could relate to the recent trading update, with somebody being slow to respond. Price today has also held up well so far as the rest of the market has dropped. Something has changed as I was able to pick up another chunk this morning as a single order when previously I've had to break it into smaller deals.

[nod] 18/8/2017 03:31

Well, 'twas the best rising share in my portfolio yesterday.

[birkenhead] 17/8/2017 15:55

Hurrah! Only a quadrupling needed to repair the damage they've done.......before Mumbles & Johnny start wheeling out the options trough for themselves again :-(

[the drewster] 17/8/2017 15:31

Ooer missus ... 2.5p in old money.

[rob_evans] 17/8/2017 13:15

"Strong growth for digital radio sales in Europe"

"Consumer DAB+ receiver sales up 30% in first six months of 2017"

[the drewster] 17/8/2017 12:55

The grim tone of the last RNS, despite the words within it being so positive, is all that keeps me (and I'm sure many others) from taking a shed load more.

Exactly what do they (JA & AS) know/fear that keeps them from being positive in their RNS announcements?

A German (or any other EU country) "Go" would surely give the company great visibility going forwards, 2017, 18 & beyond, and in the main increased turnover should filter through to the EBITDA line?

They ought to have visibility of H2 by now, or certainly very soon ... so the official results at end September will be very important, especially the "post period end events".

Can they finally deliver?

[monty panesar] 17/8/2017 10:37

V important period for orders for Xmas market.

[life of crime] 10/8/2017 13:00

Update on the state of play on DAB in Germany, which seems to be going rather well:



PS. It is hard to believe with today's overcast weather that 14 years ago this was the hottest day ever in the UK. After yesterday's torrential rain in the south east, what has happened to the summer!

[she-ra] 05/8/2017 17:49

Big trade went through on Friday. Share Prophets going to tip it again maybe? Or another city scribbler?

[felix1] 02/8/2017 02:33

I've done some more digging on the older options, from Toumaz days. Some of these were very generous, being set at face value of 0.25p (now 10p). Chris Toumazou (CT) had a lot of options when he left the company. From what I can see:• About 3.3M would have expired on 31/7/17 with an exercise price over 140p. • Another 4M appear to have a price of 10p and would have expired on 31/7/17 if not exercised. I can't find anything to say whether they were vested at that time or what the vesting conditions were. If they were then I would have expected him to have exercised those given the financial benefit they offer. However today's Total Voting Rights notice shows no significant increase in shares issued so that doesn't tally. • The remaining 5M last until 2020 but have a price of 240p. If CT has exercised his 4M options and possibly paid £400k to do so (could/would FST offer him cashless exercise?) then I'd be concerned that he might want to sell some to realise his gain and use those funds elsewhere. But the TVR announcement doesn't suggest that. Does anybody who has been engaged with this stock since the CT time have more info on those options pre-2014?

[life of crime] 31/7/2017 18:57

Amt, Felix, good posts. I may be optimistic but I think/hope that smart audio may do better than you think this Chirstmas. Google Home was only launched a couple of months ago and has had a fair number of TV ads already. I expect Smart Audio to be one of the more popular products in December, with a number of third party smart speakers coming to market with Minuet inside.

Either way, things are looking brighter and UK DAB listening is nearing the 50% threshold, when the govt can announce a switchover from FM to digital. If that happens in the next 12 months then it will be a massive boost for FST.

[felix1] 31/7/2017 13:20

I agree that the tone of the update was less upbeat than many companies would have used in this situation, but I don't object to that. Is it the role of a Board to always paint a positive picture for investors or simply to report the facts and their realistic forecast? Let the analysts do the hype - though they could get a more active house broker. At least they were open about the factors contributing to the sudden upswing. Better than offering lots of rah rah and then revealing next time that some of the progress was down to one offs. The orders brought forward by the Euro RED will reverse out in H2: it's a shame we can't quantity this. However the RED directive will still have a continuing positive impact as suppliers need to update their products. I think the update suggests this if read carefully. The benefit of the dollar-sterling movement won't go completely but as a percentage will be less in H2. The boost from Norway switch off I think will still be there but reduced in H2 as it is a progressive switch off by regions I think, and there will be consumers still replacing second and third radios, esp in the Xmas period. What is significant though is the scale of the boost from Norway, given its tiny 5m population. Switzerland - pop 8m - is the next committed to switchoff (2020 I think) but progress in other countries is likely to dwarf that before then. Expect a lot more interest in this stock if any larger countries announce plans to switch off FM services. The modest smart audio figure isn't a great surprise. I can't see google cast gaining a lot of attention currently but it's useful that FST play in the smart audio market as they might find a better opportunity as that market grows and they are maintaining the currency of their offering to previous Minuet customers. The big positive in this update is the swing to a significant cash balance and a demonstration of how cash generative increased DAB chip sales can be. The risk profile has dropped enormously with that step. I haven't had time to do a forecast for H2 myself yet (been busy with KWS which has been fantastic in the last week) but I'd tend more towards the Amt view than that of Loc. Whichever, it will be positive.

[amt] 28/7/2017 20:27

55m is a bit optimistic. Some one offs in first half including sales brought back from h2 plus currency less impact in h2. I reckon 43 to 50m witb ebitda 2.5 to 4.0m. Anyway makes shares very cheap.

[life of crime] 28/7/2017 18:17

Encouraging update. Looking at last year's figures, 60% of revenue come in the second half so, pro rata, we can expect circa £30M this half and a total of around £50M for 2017.

However, the second half of 2016 saw practically zero revenues for Minuet, which should be very different this time, so I am hopeful of revenues of £55M. This should make us comfortably profitable. I agree with others that the management definitely need to go on a communications course!

Engineers are notoriously poor on the comms front, as FST are proving. However, the results should speak for themselves over the next couple of years and I think they will become a tasty morsel for a bigger player.

[amt] 27/7/2017 12:07

2.5 to 4.0m yes. Second half is always stronger than first half. Even if take a worst case scenario and take double first half thats 2.0m. Just an extra 5 m on sales gets to 4.0m for year. Why would company growing turnover at over 25% not be able to achieve that.

[the drewster] 27/7/2017 09:48

amt - £4m - seriously????

The RNS reads more like most profit warnings than any "get ready for lift off" type announcement.

[amt] 27/7/2017 09:46

I cannot see how they can possibly forcast H2 until orders come in during window up to September. Therefore nothing wrong with them cautioning on that front and mentioning fx effect might be lowet in h2. I dont see anything wrong with the statement. It shows a very large increase in turnover. The second half should be much stronger thsn the first. With gross margins at say 40 % then now that overheads are covered every say 2.5m of additional sales over 40m for the year should generate 1m of ebitda.

[the drewster] 27/7/2017 09:13

Business is looking potentially ok-ish, though mainly coz we've been lucky, and due to things that look like they might bite us in H2, and we still can't really see, and digital audio is delivering F-all yet.

EBITDA £1.1M against "expectations FY of just £1m"
Revenues up 44%
Cash flow positive

Plenty that someone keen to sell how good the company is becoming could have said, but the RNS might just as well have told us that the office cat died.

Some people are just blatantly too far out of their depth here.

[sweenoid] 27/7/2017 09:06

Paul Smith head of Pure told me years ago that 90% of digital radios were sold in the short window between early November to mid January and that companies like Pure/ Roberts etc have their retailer orders in by at the LATEST by mid September.
It is therefore obvious that the update on trading in the interim results at the end of September is the MOMENT for this company to prove that its business is successful. After all these years of trauma and loss THAT will be the day.
Today's announcement is welcome but it appears to me that a disproportionate amount of the good news is generated by the £/$ tailwind, which they are already saying may reverse in the critical second half - that rate visa v last years now seems as critical than the number of modules they sell?
We shall see
Still only holding to use to offset gains
S

[amt] 27/7/2017 07:37

Good update. Sales have soared. A few one off items flattering the numbers but even so it shows the business is booming. I have penciled in 43 to 50 m sales for year and 2.5 to 4 m ebitda.

[nod] 25/7/2017 22:27

Felix, thanks for the info. NXP is certainly a major competitor in the automotive space. Qualcomm offered $47 Billion to acquire NXP http://www.nxp.com/products/media-and-audio-processing/media-processors/digital-radio-processors:MC_71612Brussels launches probe into Qualcomm-NXP dealCompetition regulator raises concerns that chipmaker deal could hurt competitionhttps://www.ft.com/content/08206c68-4d22-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b

[life of crime] 25/7/2017 19:32

More stations being added to the DAB network:

[the drewster] 25/7/2017 08:36

felix - the issue some have, is that the price was effectively 400p when AS & JA took over, so to reward themselves so handsomely for destroying "just" 60% of shareholder value (as opposed to the near 80% they currently have managed) just seems slightly misaligned with shareholders.

The last MAJOR (£17M?) fundraising was at 4p (160p new money).