Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[mortal1ty] 08/5/2024 10:38

£3. Happy days.

Only 90% down know from its peak.

[chalkie78] 08/5/2024 10:14

Because there's no pleasing some people Dave! There's a strong chance it could have been my ex wife that gave your post the thumbs down???

[bigbigdave] 08/5/2024 09:57

Who has given a thumbs down to my post 7495?
Strange place advfn!

[mortal1ty] 08/5/2024 09:49

More broker comments, this time from Zeus capital.

FY24 update: The company expects revenue to be at least £85m, broadly in line with our previous estimate of £87.5m. Overall portfolio sales have performed well, particularly creative management simulation (CMS) and own-IP titles. The company recorded a strong Frontier publisher sale on Steam and ‘Planet Zoo: Console Edition’ also continued to sell well during April following its successful launch in March. Adjusted EBITDA loss is expected to be £5m or better, significantly ahead of our original forecast loss of £13.6m due to a greater proportion of own-IP revenue, lower operating costs following the completion of the Organisational Review, and the gain from the sale of the RCT3 publishing rights to Atari as announced on 2 April 2024. Excluding profits from the sale of RCT3 publishing rights, which we estimate to be £4.7m, management’s updated expectation for £5.0m Adjusted EBITDA loss is still £3.9m better than our estimate.

[mortal1ty] 08/5/2024 08:37

Hopefully another green day here. Those broker upgrades doing their work.

[bigbigdave] 08/5/2024 06:55

BERENBERG RAISES FRONTIER DEVELOPMENTS PRICE TARGET TO 300 (170) PENCE - 'HOLD'

[fisternator] 07/5/2024 19:23

Just so i understand you .
Rather than you posting any hyperlink or quote from the Bod official RNS saying anything other than the market consensus figures I use , you just post "The statement supports my case not yours."?

What part of their statement on their 27/11/23 that i employ saying consensus EBITDA loss of £9 million backs up your case of a £13 million bod understood consensus EBITDA loss ?


I really do not know where you are going with this but rather than posting all these words it would surely be beneficial to just show us the RNS before today that disagree with the figures i used and you persist with. I can not see it and will happily stand corrected if you can show me such?

It would also for context be handy if you posted the exact date that you claim the company new understood market consensus EBITDA loss was going to be £13 Million and not the RNS £9 Million.
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"They say in the statement they won't hit 9m. This 9m was the guidance before the Warhammer flop."

27/11/23 RNS that warns on Warhammer flop but states £9 million EBITDA Loss achievable.

Following the lower than expected sales performance of Realms of Ruin, the Board no longer believes that the current market expectation for FY24 revenue of around GBP108 million is likely to be achieved. Updated guidance is for FY24 revenue in the range of GBP80-95 million, with the outcome dependent on sales performance across Frontier's game portfolio during the remainder of the financial year, including the revenue contributions from new platform releases for existing games.

Despite the reduction in revenue guidance, the Board believes that the current market expectation for an Adjusted EBITDA* loss of around GBP9 million in FY24 remains achievable

[mortal1ty] 07/5/2024 19:17

We are talking about the same statement. The statement supports my case not yours.

They say in the statement they won't hit 9m. This 9m was the guidance before the Warhammer flop.

The important thing from the broker note is their comments about opex coming in below estimates and their increase their earnings and sales forecasts. They believe the financial prospects are improving.

[fisternator] 07/5/2024 18:50

The lady doth protest too much, methinks.
I will take that Mortality in the absence of you illustrating any other EBITDA RNS figures proving otherwise as;
Yes Fist! all the figures you employed in your in initial post are 100% correct. The Atari and Microsoft payments make up the £4 million improvement in EBITDA.

I have already conceded the future figure are open to upward change but yet you will not even open up your mind to accept what i post as factual. After all, it would take anyone in any doubt to what i say about 1 min to check and see it's correct.

I again state, i am more than happy to stand corrected if you can show me any RNS EBITDA mentions since 11/23 other than the ones i used today. Why don't you?

btw- You did not say when posting the Lib broker upgrade note, who is paying for it? Is it independent by chance?
Moreover, should we hope this is more accurate than their November 2021 £35.40 target shortly before the share lost 90% over the next couple of Years?
Or are posters allowed to be highly selective and have a lapse memory when posting paid for broker notes on a Share forum when they have a vested financial interest?

[mortal1ty] 07/5/2024 18:05

Let's not forget this share has already 3x from it's low (almost).

...and it's going up again on a small upgrade. Or if you want to argue with the bears, no upgrade.

Imagine what the shares will do when we get a proper upgrade.

[mortal1ty] 07/5/2024 18:04

Management walked away from the 9m EBITDA loss. What part of "we will only hit this figure if we come in at the top end of guidance" do you not understand?

That means at the midpoint of managements revenue guide they will be worse than 9m.

Brokers are upgrading their numbers today and the share is going up.

[sgtwhisper] 07/5/2024 17:57

Haha, we all know you're Shermanator. ;)

[parob] 07/5/2024 17:52

A strong move up on high volume, in fact highest daily volume in 3 months :)

[fisternator] 07/5/2024 17:47

Yes, please do not worry.
Everyone remembers when they are fisted. ;)

[sgtwhisper] 07/5/2024 17:41

I remember you not understanding a lower - being a +.
Thank you.

[sgtwhisper] 07/5/2024 17:10

Has there been material change since then? Yes. Or am I not allowed to change opinion?
Your factual figures mean f'all atm. Market is forward looking, those figure's are already history. Absolute wet wipe.
Tbf, your opinion is irrelevant to my 100%+ and counting profit. Have a lovely evening bell.

[fisternator] 07/5/2024 16:51

So to summarise.
You posted on this thread In September at over 200p and again in November where you basically stated the shares are overvalued, demand the CEO should go , pan their games and say cash is running out!
You go on to call the FDEV head office a Circus run by clowns and offer up some complicated conspiracy theory where you suggest the shares are "being walked down for a reason"?


I ask you?
Can you see that your post to me may be the largest example of an oxymoron on AFN. When you attack me for just posting factual figures once ?

Make sense who can!

[sgtwhisper] 07/5/2024 16:28

Quite a few premature assumptions there Fisternator.

Why bring up past share price £32 to £1? What's that got to do with current situation?

I've been here watching and studying what's happeneing since £20.
I got in long at £1.08 after Mr Watts stopped running the company asif it was Froniter Develoment Manager, was clearly oversold down there, no new games at that point to drag it further, staff cost cut by 20%, reduced budget for F1M & refocused on CMS games that are proven long term profit makers.

Since then, I've added at £1.40, £1.75 & £2.01 from L2, volume and doing more 'homework'. Features on F1M are what customers have begged for, Planet Zoo to console beat Planet Coasters sales in comparison, cutting dead wood from portfolio, no new risky licensed games & soon we'll find out what IP game they have been working on.

I could not give a shiney sh*t about EBITDA at the moment, you can focus on that while I evaluate their products before the market evaluates the sales. Guarantee I'll be in or out before any worthy shift up or down & it won't have anything to do with EBITDA, I'll leave you reacting late to that while i already have a good idea which direction it'll be. So no, on this stock I really don't need those figure's atm and you certainly don't need to twist your nickers over it either.

I've been ahead of this stock since F1M came out and the pipeline dried up. did you get caught out up there or something? Jw why the hissy fits?

[mr euro] 07/5/2024 15:16

Well why the haters are chatting, I was having some of my orders snapped up.

The pipeline and roadmap are exciting and low risk. I don't know many better risk/reward plays than FDEV.

This has all the ingredients to make a 5x from here.

[parob] 07/5/2024 15:15

Strong volume coming in this afternoon. Let's hope institutional interest following the broker upgrades.

[mortal1ty] 07/5/2024 15:07

£110m market-cap.

A single successful own-IP would probably push this to £105m+ sales.

Put that on 2.5x (which is reasonable), add back the £25m cash, and you have almost a 3x bagger from here.

That is the real prize here.

[fisternator] 07/5/2024 15:06

Mortal Indeed, but you are conflating the EBITDA figures the Bod quoted and ones they did not!
The point is i am employing BOD RNS acknowledged consensus figures, the last two issued.
The bod did say market consensus of £9 million EBITDA loss not the £13 million you posted before my reply?

I employed a like for like comparison, that was the whole point i was making

If the bod did posted they said the consensus EBITDA of £13 million in any RNS since 11/23 that i will happily acknowledge such.

Did they?


By the way who paid for that research not from Liberum do you reckon, or is it independent?
---------------------------------------------------
I am "confusing the matter with market consensus".

... you then literally include a quote from BOD where they refer to "current market expectations".

So you tell me to listen to the BOD and not to confuse matters. But then the board is talking about "current market expectations".

You realise -£9m EBITDA wasn't guidance by management? They only said they would meet that if they hit the top of the revenue range, which they haven't.