Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[cfro] 09/5/2017 08:49

Charles Cotton is still busy accumulating. Another 6k yesterday which followed 10k on May 3rd and 35k in late April.

[seroserio] 02/5/2017 15:50

Thank you.

[makw61] 02/5/2017 14:12

Wouldn't surprise me if they have the monthly board meeting just prior to 25th each month and agree any RNS's then, plus some sort of sign-off over proposed director trades. Next announcement will be the PS4 release date presumably, so be interesting to see if that does occur on the 25th (i'm still expecting a June date for the PS4 release so that would be consistent with a 25th May announcement).

Agree with p1nkfish on forecasts - they're not very meaningful for this sort of company. I just take the view the downside is limited by the value of the existing code base, Cobra engine and the Elite name they own. If one of their current or future franchises proves to be a breakout hit then they will be worth a multiple of the current share price. No guarantee of success but i'm happy to invest in such asymmetric situations.

ATB

[m4ybe] 02/5/2017 12:50

They just had to all wait for the boxes announcement before trading I think.

[m4ybe] 02/5/2017 12:39

I noticed that director trade was actually done on the 25th, same as the others. It's evidence for my theory they're encouraged to trade on the same day in the month. We'll see if this is a pattern in the future reducing the effect of the director we know who needs to sell, and clearing out (usually good) news at the same time to make the insider trades allowable.

[cfro] 02/5/2017 12:01

Dont think anyones picked up on the Non-exec purchase of 35k on Friday.

[p1nkfish] 28/4/2017 22:58

Take all forecasts with a pinch of salt.

Exact revenue forecast is problematic so I reckon management forecast low and the exact development costs could be higher if further opportunities arise in the meantime leading to higher expenditure.

Sorry, but this is very hard to put figures on.

You can say it has a market with good dynamics, experienced management with skin in the game, good product offerings and some unique development tools.

[seroserio] 28/4/2017 19:17

I wonder if someone could help here? I have had this as a potential buy for a while but is it the case that eps is set to rise from May 16-17 from -8p to +2.8p but then fall again to May 18 to 0.5p?

[cfro] 27/4/2017 15:57

Yes, just holding off any further buying on my part after seeing the director shares sales just in case i get a chance slightly lower..

[m4ybe] 27/4/2017 13:11

could be, and just speculating, but if I was in their position I'd be asking existing large declared holders whether they'd like to increase without moving the market. There is a legal requirement for an insider to not trade before news, so I think the announcement of retail boxes was aligned and so this process is also flushing out good news.

[phowdo] 27/4/2017 13:05

They'll have the broker finding a buyer for a block of shares just as they must have done in that transaction just done.
However it might need to clear at a price below here. If that happens, and the shareprice falls too, Id see that as an opportunity to top-up rather than sell.

[m4ybe] 27/4/2017 11:57

Three significant independent exercises at around the same day. They may have (as it was where I used to work) a policy of mostly allowing trades only once a month so as not to tie up management time checking and announcing. Over 'coming months' makes me think it'll be a monthly reduction of holdings. So there may not be much overhang until late next month, by which time announcements may have already occurred to make insider dealing allowed.

[phowdo] 27/4/2017 09:36

David Walsh and his wife Gillian Walsh are transferring and liquidating assets subject to court order as part of their divorce, and have each notified the Company that for this reason further sales of their holdings in the Company are expected in the coming months.


At IPO David Walsh had 1,245,820 shares:
490,000 in the name of his wife
755,820 in his own name.

So David still has 555k and his wife has 90k after yesterdays notifications.


Hopefully a fund steps in again to mop those up otherwise its a fair sized overhang...

[x54v] 26/4/2017 17:35

RNS just out - director sales due to divorce proceedings.

Looks like that's where Swedbank picked up the shares from. Both transactions on the 24th. Good to have the loose stock mopped up so quickly by an insti.

[cfro] 26/4/2017 10:52

Yes they seem to be an impressive fund.

[thegaminginvestor] 26/4/2017 08:30

Great news. These are the same guys with big stakes in CD Projekt, Starbreeze, Paradox and T2.

[rivaldo] 26/4/2017 07:20

The above-named Robur (Swedbank) has bought almost another 500,000 shares and now has over 4% (1.4m shares):

[thegaminginvestor] 24/4/2017 22:59

In the March holdings update Robur (currently the best technology fund in the world) had bought 2.5% of the company.

[hastings] 24/4/2017 21:54

Write up on the above posted by makw61

[makw61] 24/4/2017 17:27

Frontier have announced that PC will be released as a boxed i.e. retail version on 23 May, with ED later this year. I'm a little surprised by that given the cost benefit of digital distribution, but if it results in incremental sales it is all good.

There were 1.1m shares traded today so possibly an RNS in next day or two - be interesting to see who is buying and who is selling.

ATB

[cfro] 19/4/2017 18:16

Bought in today and glad to be in the company of many accomplished investors here. :-)

Just cant believe i didnt spot this one sooner as i had no excuses really. Should be plenty of growth to go for however.

[m4ybe] 19/4/2017 18:10

68% revenue growth is the main thing for me. Companies that consistently add 50% to sales tend to have nice trends and very high PEs, so I just hope and expect it continues, although the nature of the business means it will fluctuate a little unpredictably. How they reinvest in the short term seems less important. Game companies with consistent successes are rare, and this one has had two in a row. A major film brand seems a low risk way to get a third, depending on how they structured the agreement.

[makw61] 19/4/2017 10:52

The next few weeks are quiet ones for games sales so suspect they have pretty much booked that £36m already. The PS4 release could add a few hundred k of unit sales pretty quickly so if that were imminent they would have given a range for FY17 revenue out-turn or said something like "in excess of £36m". ATB

[interceptor2] 19/4/2017 10:40

Bought in here today after a very strong update, and it is good practise to give estimated figures for the year end. Looking at the £36m revenue figure and using the top end margin estimate the PER is about 16 which is low for a company operating in this fast growing sector.

I didn't include any tax deductions or tax credits for my calculations because I am not sure what the tax situation will be this year.

FDEV still have six weeks to run to the year end.