Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[makw61] 22/8/2017 09:18

Hi Nik,

As m4ybe says, around 50% shares with directors and former directors plus the Tencent holding leaves you with an effective free float of around 40%. There's a schedule of ii's on the company website but not sure how up to date it is (and the directors' total doesn't seem to add up properly!). Lansdowne have been in since IPO from memory and increased since then i think.

The main reason for the rapid price rise is i think simply that the prospects for the company are being rapidly re-evaluated upwards!

I mean, PC only runs on a high end rig and it's sold 1m in less than a year (faster than ED from launch). The new game is aimed at a much broader market in terms of console plus pc from launch, and in terms of age range. No doubt the marketing around the film release will do no harm either, plus a bit of push from Tencent in far eastern markets. I'm a cautious guy and I was thinking 3-4m first year, but now i'm thinking 10m units might be the better estimate. The economics of this business mean that would be an absolutely massive jump in profitability (to be fair we don't know the royalty payable for the licence but maybe 5% of revenue would be my guess).

I was lucky enough to buy in at between £1.70 and £1.80 and i'm definitely not a seller at these levels.

Off to dig the garden; excellent advice btw. Put your faith in Braben, trust that the company will be worth a lot more in years to come, ignore any day to day volatility. As Terry Smith says (or maybe it was Charlie Munger?), doing nothing is the hardest part!

GLA

[bamboo2] 22/8/2017 08:47

brucey, preconditions for a HTF have been met.

TP is based on the lowest point in the flag.
Current price 845 makes a min tp of approx 1217.6

Next potential turns 24th and 29th August

edit added, HTF pattern confirmed with eod close above 875

[m4ybe] 22/8/2017 08:08

twistednik, see RNS news 4th August, the founder still has 45.6% and a few other directors will have significant. Since that must be the majority of his wealth, unless he's had other exceptional investments, I think it shows a lot of confidence and determination to get this right, and one reason I went in larger than usual myself last year. Edit: and of course Tencent owns about 10%.

[twistednik] 22/8/2017 06:17

Hi Mak, what % is the free float and who owns the rest of the shares?

Seems like the parabolic rise may be due to lack of supply of free shares !

Thanks

TN

[p1nkfish] 22/8/2017 05:48

Hold tight. Forget you own it and go dig the garden.

[commander t] 21/8/2017 21:00

Gta 5 has sold 80m units since release as of May 2017. And Minecraft 121m units as of Feb 2017.

[mirabeau] 21/8/2017 20:47

'FinnCap analyst Harold Evans today believes Jurassic World Evolution is well-positioned to benefit from popularity surrounding Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, the sequel to the highly successful film Jurassic World which is scheduled for release in June 2018.

He says the game has the potential to sell more than 1m units as the Jurassic Park franchise is among the top 20 most successful film franchises.

If the sequel to Jurassic World repeats its predecessor's box office performance and hits $1.7bn, the analyst says Frontier has the potential to sell a staggering 10m units of its game.

‘Importantly, we do not feel that the brand has been overly monetised already as the last console game released was in 2003,’ comments Evans.'


From Shares mag

10m...a fair number indeed

[rivaldo] 21/8/2017 15:04

Good coverage in today's Times - not much we don't know after the RNS, but good to see anyway:



Extract:

"Jurassic Park tie-up takes games designer to a new frontier

Britain’s only listed computer games company has teamed up with Universal Studios to create a game based on the Jurassic Park films in a deal that is expected to double its revenue by 2019.

Last month Frontier Developments secured £17.7 million from a Chinese internet group to help it expand abroad.

David Braben, founder and chief executive of Frontier, said that the game would attract a younger audience than its existing games, Elite: Dangerous and Planet Coaster.

“It will be our first self-published title to debut on PC, PlayStation and Xbox simultaneously,” he said.

Mr Braben, who became one of the key figures in the computer gaming industry when he created Elite, a space trading game, in 1984, added that the new game would be Frontier’s first release to benefit from the marketing of a major theatrical release. It will launch next summer to coincide with the release of the next film in the franchise, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.

The previous film in the series, Jurassic World, released in 2015, took more than $1.67 billion at the box office.

Frontier’s Jurassic World Evolution game puts players in charge of managing the Jurassic Park tourist destination, where they have to face such challenges as escaped dinosaurs. Along the way they will be able to consult characters from the film series for advice.

Formed in 1994, Frontier initially developed games for other publishers, such as Microsoft, a model that allowed it to keep only a relatively low percentage of revenue from sales. It listed on AIM in 2013 and has moved to a much more lucrative self-publishing model.

It has also benefited from an industry shift to publishing games online instead of on disk, which removes the risk and cost of holding physical stock and maximises revenue by enabling players to buy additional features, giving games a longer shelf life.

etc"

[bamboo2] 21/8/2017 14:50

Have we heard anymore about David Walsh planned disposal to fund the divorce settlement? I would guess that he could be the source of some of the recent stock availability, but also, since the share price increase, may not have to let as many go.

[cfro] 21/8/2017 14:11

"Already indentified franchises four and five..."

Wow!, thanks for that piece of news rivaldo.

[adamb1978] 21/8/2017 14:07

Rivaldo - I'm be extremely disappointed if they didn't have the next couple in mind, in fact, it might cause me to sell out!P.S. my first ever post on a message board from under the English Channel!

[panic investor] 21/8/2017 13:39

Well it seems people like it on YouTube 333k views

[m4ybe] 21/8/2017 13:11

Planet Coaster sales appear to remain strong most of a year after launch hxxp://tools.garry.tv/steamchart/?range=180&show=493340 and the selling price is still original full price I think, with new extras on top.

[m4ybe] 21/8/2017 13:08

This franchise could have a long run, 'Jurassic Park trilogy' hxxp://screenrant.com/jurassic-world-2-ja-bayona-trilogy-details/ and mentioned more recently at the end of hxxp://screenrant.com/jurassic-world-2-action-sequence/

[bruceylegs] 21/8/2017 12:17

Mark - they posted a 'slightly ahead' trading statement in June with Op. Profit significantly up. That combined with the volume update last week indicates Planet Coaster is hitting its stride and should give confidence for a positive interim statement during early Sept.

[mark4231] 21/8/2017 11:53

Exciting stuff, although I would say that having bought several chunks of shares - all below £2.80. :-)

Thoughts...

The new franchise looks great. I imagine that they can re-use significant code from Planet Coaster too as it is a similar game, in a way, so development costs won't be quite as high as they would be otherwise. I expect that this new game will be quite something - and have a lot of depth - rather than a run of a mill film tie up and will appeal to many people even if they're not particular fans of the film. I recently bought Planet Coaster, even though it isn't really my sort of thing, but am impressed and have been playing it far more than I expected.

I do wonder - as the new franchise isn't released for another year - how revenues and profits will be until then. A mild concern of mine is how the outside world will perceive lumpy numbers between major launches of games or franchises. Longer term, it isn't an issue though.

Anyway, I get the impression David Braben is a clever and sensible bloke and is not in this for a quick buck, so will do and plan whatever is best for the company in the long term. I'm staying fully invested as I think the future is very very bright for the company.

Onward to the next bit of exciting news to make the share price shoot up overnight. :-)

[dgbell7] 21/8/2017 11:26

here's a write up showing how much the fans are looking forward to the new game.

[panic investor] 21/8/2017 11:24

Competition time then for 4 and 5 !

[rivaldo] 21/8/2017 11:17

Another interesting point from Liberum's note last week is that FDEV's management have "already identified" franchises four and five (Jurassic Park will be franchise three).

The fifth franchise is expected to be revenue-earning during 2019 - so there's upside coming over the next 2-3 years from even more than Jurassic Park, Elite and Planet Coaster.

[makw61] 21/8/2017 10:14

I guess the transition to self-publishing was quite a big deal for Frontier at the time, but they can be confident now that it has worked, and you do sense that there is plenty going on at present. The first sign of that increased confidence was the bringing in of the new CFO and i just get the impression that Braben senses a real opportunity here with the continued growth of the gaming market and the big shift to digital distribution to build something exciting and with real scale, and for me that piece of recruitment was a sure sign that he was setting out his stall to do just that.

Be interesting to see if he can be persuaded to sell some shares to increase the free float. I think he will be reluctant but i've been wrong many times before.

I do think we are in the happy situation here where the surprises tend to be very pleasant ones!

GLA

[m4ybe] 21/8/2017 09:55

Liberum 850 target met, I imagine they'll be wanting to raise their target soon too given the news.

[p1nkfish] 21/8/2017 09:51

Ok.

Still wonder what else in the wings given modular design capability they now have.

Not one to trade, more an investment with patience.

[makw61] 21/8/2017 09:47

Think the timing was related to Gamescom 2017 and the announcement there which meant that Frontier had to release an RNS this morning.

[bruceylegs] 21/8/2017 09:43

Seems the "Operation Genesis" crowd are gagging for it.